In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, March 2nd
Lithium Prices Continue to Rise, Turkish Drones Complicate Russia’s Offensive in Ukraine, Uncertainty Surrounds Russia’s Future Role in Libya
Lithium Prices Continue to Rise
Lithium prices continue to rise, increasing the costs associated with the production of electric vehicles and solar power projects. With China and Argentina agreeing a series of deals that will see increased lithium mining in the coming years, major buyers of lithium are paying close attention to how such deals may impact the global supply of the rare metal. South America’s Lithium Triangle contains more than a half of the world’s entire lithium reserves, with the metal serving a critical part in the production of high-capacity batteries.
Argentina is a key part of South America’s Lithium Triangle. While Australia and South America are the dominant powers in lithium mining, altogether representing 85% of the world’s production, China possesses considerable lithium reserves of its own and is looking to increase its stake in the global share of the commodity. China’s power in this industry is derived from the fact that its companies refine roughly two-thirds of the world’s lithium, placing China in a unique position in the global supply chain. China’s own lithium reserves have recently increased with the discovery of a new lithium deposit near Mount Everest, and its position as a top refiner of the metal gives Beijing a powerful hand over electric vehicle and solar power industries. With incentives for divesting away from hydrocarbons on the rise the world over, the demand for lithium-ion batteries is going to keep climbing.
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Turkish Drones Complicate Russia’s Offensive in Ukraine
As Russian forces continue to make gains into the territory of Ukraine, a small portion of Ukraine’s military arsenal has had a noticeable effect in slowing down the advance of Russia’s armed forces. The handful of Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 armed drones in possession of Ukraine’s armed forces have proven to be highly-effective against Russia’s armoured units, causing serious problems for a Russian intervention force assembled with the goal of achieving rapid manoeuvres over land.
Despite there being an estimated 20 such drones in the service of Ukraine’s armed forces, the drones have reportedly made a noticeable difference on the battlefield, just as they did in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020. The relatively slow and low-flying drones have proved an effective means to neutralize outdated air defence systems, something Russian military planners should have anticipated before initiating its military operation in Ukraine. Perhaps one reason why the drones have been so effective in the conflict thus far has been lacklustre deployment of adequate air defence and electronic warfare forces by Russia. Moreover, there has been a noticeable absence of the more advanced elements of Russian power over the skies of Ukraine, with the Russian armed forces choosing to limit the deployment of sophisticated aircraft in lieu of the more outdated MIG-29 fighter aircraft.
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Uncertainty Surrounds Russia’s Future Role in Libya
Russia has been a key political and military partner of Libya for decades, providing military and economic assistance to the country throughout Muammar Gaddafi’s rule. That partnership ended abruptly when Gaddafi was killed by militants in 2011, setting the stage for a NATO-led intervention based on humanitarian grounds. Since then, Russia has tried to maintain its influence in Tripoli both directly and through its favourable relations via its embassies in other Arab nations, particularly Egypt.
The direct Russian military intervention in Ukraine may work to jeopardize Moscow’s ability to maintain this influence, as the cost of sanctions and the war effort continue to mount, limiting the ability and will of the Russian military establishment to maintain costly ties in Libya. Russia has maintained a relatively smaller force in Libya compared to Turkey, which remains the most dominant foreign force with an estimated 12,000 Turkish troops and mercenaries still operating in Libya. Economic sanctions imposed after the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea already weighed on Moscow’s ability to maintain a large force in Libya, and the current set of sanctions imposed on Russia are so severe it is difficult to see how Moscow will maintain its presence here for long. As a result of Russia’s increased economic and political isolation from global markets, it is more likely now than at any time since Gaddafi’s fall that the Russian military posture in Libya will shrink in the coming months.
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