In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, March 22nd
Europe Looks to Africa As Main Green Hydrogen Partner, Turkey and Greece Show Progress Towards Improving Bilateral Relations, and other stories.
Europe Looks to Africa as Main Green Hydrogen Partner
The race for green hydrogen dominance is heating up between Europe and Africa. According to Rystad Energy analysis, Africa's announced electrolyzer pipeline capacity has reached 114 gigawatts (GW), with Sub-Saharan African countries accounting for 61% of the total. This region's strategic position for a successful green hydrogen economy is strengthened by South Africa's possession of about 90% of the world's global platinum group metals reserves.
Europe's energy crisis has given it further impetus to invest in Africa's low-cost labour, renewable power potential, and land access. Germany, for instance, has signed off-take deals with Namibia and South Africa, while Norway provided $8 million in funding to Scatec, a Norwegian renewable company, to develop green hydrogen projects in Egypt. These moves are expected to accelerate, with the European Union Green Industrial Plan promoting renewable energy and green hydrogen projects in Africa. African countries are currently in the best position to supply the green hydrogen quantities that Europe requires, with the continent's announced pipeline capacity projected to produce 7.2 million tonnes by 2035.
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Deadlock Continues in Talks on South China Sea Code of Conduct
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China recently resumed talks regarding the South China Sea code of conduct, but differences in opinion between the two suggest that the long-standing deadlock will continue.
The meeting produced no significant progress, but China and ASEAN agreed to attempt to establish a security hotline at some point in 2023 to reduce the risk of escalation during maritime standoffs or accidental collisions. However, they did not discuss whether the code of conduct would be legally binding. While ASEAN seeks a legally binding code of conduct based on the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea, China prefers negotiating with individual states to exercise its asymmetric advantages rather than with ASEAN as a bloc.
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Turkey and Greece Show Progress Towards Improving Bilateral Relations
A recent meeting between officials from Turkey and Greece is a sign of progress towards improving their strained relations. The “Positive Agenda” initiative set up by the two countries in April 2021 has seen little progress until now, but the momentum of post-disaster diplomacy seems to be changing things. The deputy foreign ministers of both countries met in Ankara to discuss ways to improve cooperation in bilateral ties, and the parties agreed on a framework for finalizing agreements that could be signed at the next high-level meeting.
The recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria have brought an unexpected respite from mutual hostilities, with Greece's prompt action to help relief efforts in Turkey sparking a flurry of diplomatic overtures between Athens and Ankara. The two countries' leaders and senior government officials held conversations, exchanging pleasantries after a long hiatus. This progress is especially significant given the tensions between the two NATO allies over conflicting territorial claims in the eastern Mediterranean and other disagreements. However, while there is still much work to be done, this recent meeting is a positive step forward towards improving their relations.
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Algeria-Morocco Relations Reach Breaking Point over Western Sahara
Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune has declared that relations between Algeria and Morocco have reached a “point of no return,” citing Morocco's actions as the cause. This comes after the two North African countries severed diplomatic ties in 2021 following growing tensions over the disputed territory of Western Sahara.
Algeria backs the armed Polisario movement that seeks independence for Western Sahara, a territory Rabat claims as its own. In addition to differences over Western Sahara, Algeria and Morocco also diverge in their position towards Israel, with Algeria supporting Palestine, while Morocco and Israel agreed to normalize relations in 2020. Tebboune also accused Spain of being biased towards Morocco and forgetting its role as a former colonial power in Western Sahara. Spain has maintained a neutral position on the issue for decades but in March 2021 backed a Moroccan proposal to offer Western Sahara autonomy under its sovereignty.
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The Indo-Pacific as a Response to Challenges in Asia-Pacific
The emergence of the Indo-Pacific region — encompassing the Indian Ocean, the western and central Pacific Oceans, as well as Southeast Asia and Oceania — in geopolitical discourse is a relatively recent phenomenon. The Indo-Pacific region's emergence is a response to challenges posed to the Asia-Pacific and the need for a new regional order.
The term first appeared in Australia's 2013 Defense White Paper and has since been adopted by the US, India, EU, and ASEAN. The contemporary construct of the Indo-Pacific emerged in the context of challenges to the Asia-Pacific, such as the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and the US-led International Monetary Fund's response to it. The emergence of a post-AFC East Asian regionalism further challenged the centrality of the US within the Asia-Pacific. At the same time, an increasingly powerful China wanted to play a more significant role in regional order building.