In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, March 9th

Saudi Arabia Remains Committed to OPEC+, Turkey to Host Talks Between Russia and Ukraine, Geopolitics Still Determines Conflicts

Saudi Arabia Remains Committed to OPEC+

Despite international pressure to shun Russian energy over its invasion of Ukraine, Saudi Arabia has reiterated his country’s commitment to Russia via the OPEC+ agreement. Saudi leadership has emphasized his country’s partnership with Russia in terms of an interest in maintaining “stability and balance” in oil markets. In effect, comments made by Saudi officials following Russia’s escalation in Ukraine underlined the broad-based strategic political and economic shift away from the US sphere of influence and towards that of China and Russia.

The catalyst for this shift in geopolitical alliances can partly be attributed to the rise of US shale as a dominant force in energy markets. The Saudi failure to maintain a dominant position in oil markets following the 2014-2016 Oil Price War led leadership in Riyadh to question its long-held alliance with the US. Saudi leadership realized then that the unchecked rising production of oil in the hands of the US would mean the gradual decline of Saudi Arabia’s power in the world and as a key player in the Middle East. Such a reality would also mean that the US would be less inclined to support Saudi Arabia going forward. Since the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, Saudi interests have come to more closely align with those of Russia, as both states seek to maintain their enviable position as major oil exporters. As such, the basis for the agreement made between US President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the Saudi King Abdulaziz on the 14th of February, 1945 appears to be withering away.

Read more about this story here.

Turkey to Host Talks Between Russia and Ukraine

Turkey has pursued active diplomatic engagement with both Russia and Ukraine in an effort to find a diplomatic solution between two key Turkish trade partners. High-level diplomats representing both Russia and Ukraine will meet in Turkey on Thursday for the first talks since Russia launched its invasion. The meeting is expected to see Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov meet on the sidelines of the Antalya Diplomatic Forum.

The talks are somewhat of a diplomatic coup for Turkey, which has insisted on mediating between the warring sides. A policy of “active neutrality” could prove successful for Turkey, bringing the country to the center of a potential diplomatic solution that would not sideline Turkey. Turkey has thus far managed to minimize the costs of the war in Ukraine and is seeking ways of subduing the conflict before a protracted war inflicts more serious costs on its vulnerable economy. However, the possibility of a deal agreed on Turkish soil remains unlikely as Russian demands may be untenable for Ukrainian officials to accept. Russia has reportedly demanded that Ukraine change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, thus giving up aspirations to join NATO and the EU. Moreover, Russia is also asking that Kiev acknowledges Crimea as Russian territory and recognizes the independence of the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.

Read more about this story here.

Geopolitics Still Determines Conflicts

Geopolitics is the struggle for control over foreign lands, ports, cities, mines, railroads, oil fields, and other sources of material and military might. The strategic logic which compels strategists working at the highest positions of state power continues to govern the behavior of major powers. Leading powers have always proceeded from the logical assumption that acquiring control over as many strategic places as possible was the surest path to ensuring the survival of their power and the people which they govern.

This unfortunate reality is currently playing out in Ukraine and elsewhere. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has justified Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in ideological terms, the logic within which he and Russian strategists operate today is better interpreted through the lens of geopolitics. The ideological foundations to the war in Ukraine should instead be viewed as an accumulation of grievances overlaying a set of geopolitical calculations. From Putin’s perspective, the origins of the Ukrainian conflict date back to the immediate post-Cold War years, when NATO, acting against the geopolitical considerations of Russia, took advantage of Russia’s weakness and relentlessly expanded eastward. But such considerations are not exclusive to Russia, as the United States too has been guided by cold-blooded geopolitical considerations. As a major trading nation with a dependence on access to foreign markets and raw materials, the US has long sought control over strategic islands, including Cuba, Hawaii, and the Philippines.

Read more about this story here.