In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, March 13th
EU Approves €5 Billion Boost to Military Aid Fund, Turkey Eyes Summer Assault in Iraq to Secure Strategic Trade Corridor, and other stories.
EU Approves €5 Billion Boost to Military Aid Fund
European Union member states have agreed to inject an additional €5 billion into a revamped fund for military assistance to Ukraine. The decision comes after months of wrangling among EU members over the rules and priorities for the expanded European Peace Facility (EPF). Under the compromise reached by ambassadors from the EU's 27 nations, the new Ukraine Assistance Fund within the EPF will prioritize supporting Ukraine's most urgent needs, including artillery, specialized munitions, drones, and air defence.
The deal allows for flexibility to procure supplies from outside the EU in exceptional circumstances when European production cannot meet Ukraine's time-sensitive requirements. France, backed by Greece, Cyprus, and to some extent Spain, had pushed for joint procurement to originate solely from the European defence industry. Germany initially sought to have all its bilateral aid to Ukraine deducted from its EPF contributions, a request dismissed by other members. The boost comes at a critical juncture for Ukraine, with officials warning that Russian troops could break through their defences by summer if Ukraine does not receive supplies. The EU is also stepping up efforts to bolster its own defence industry. The EPF has already allocated €6.1 billion to military aid for Ukraine.
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Venezuela Closes Airspace to Argentine Planes
Caracas has banned all aircraft originating from or destined for Argentina from entering Venezuelan airspace, escalating a diplomatic spat triggered by the seizure and handover of a Venezuelan cargo plane to the United States. The retaliatory move comes as Buenos Aires initiates its own diplomatic actions against Venezuela in response. Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil declared that “no aircraft” from Argentina would be permitted to fly over Venezuelan territory until Caracas receives compensation for damages caused by the seizure of the plane.
Tensions flared after the US completed the confiscation of a Boeing 747 cargo jet belonging to Emtrasur, a subsidiary of Venezuelan state carrier Conviasa. The aircraft, which was sold to Venezuela by Iran's Mahan Air, had been detained in Buenos Aires since June 2022 after arriving from Mexico and was subsequently handed over to Washington. Argentina's government condemned Venezuela's airspace ban and has initiated diplomatic actions against Caracas. The tit-for-tat airspace closures and seizure of the Venezuelan plane mark a new low in relations between the governments in Caracas and Buenos Aires. The risk is that the dispute could further fragment South America's already polarized political landscape and disrupt air links in a region heavily reliant on aviation for connectivity.
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US and China Vie for Influence in Thailand's Space and Cyber Sectors
The long-running US-China rivalry is expanding into the strategic domains of space and cyberspace, with Thailand emerging as a key battleground. Recent developments showcase how Washington and Beijing are vying to shape the Southeast Asian nation's policies and capabilities in these arenas. During this year's Cobra Gold wargames, US forces for the first time trained their Thai counterparts in the monitoring of objects in orbit. On the cyber front, Chinese tech giant Huawei has been deepening its partnership with Thailand's National Cyber Security Agency, tasked with protecting the country's critical infrastructure from digital threats.
The duelling overtures underscore the high stakes of the US-China tech war and its reverberations in third countries. For Washington, strengthening ties with Thailand on space and cyber issues is part of a broader strategy to counter Beijing's tech ambitions and maintain US dominance in these domains across the region. China, meanwhile, sees partners like Thailand as crucial to its efforts to set global standards and norms around emerging technologies. Thailand, for its part, appears to be balancing between the two powers as it seeks to harness the benefits of new technologies while managing geopolitical risks. Bangkok's collaboration with Beijing on satellites through the Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organization, even as it deepens space ties with Washington, reflects a delicate hedging strategy. As the US-China rivalry intensifies, Thailand's ability to navigate between the two giants in the realms of space and cyberspace will be a key test of its strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarized world.
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The Shifting Tides of Global Shipbuilding
The global shipbuilding industry has undergone a profound transformation in recent decades, with China emerging as the dominant force. In 1975, the US ranked first worldwide, producing over 70 commercial vessels annually. Today, China has surpassed the US, Japan, and South Korea to become the world's largest shipbuilding nation, delivering over 1,000 ocean-going vessels last year. Chinese firms now control a significant share of cargo ports worldwide and provide critical shipping infrastructure.
This shift has significant implications for global trade and geopolitics. With the vast majority of world trade carried by sea, the ability to construct, operate, and control commercial shipping fleets is a key source of economic and strategic power. China's state-backed shipbuilding giants could give Beijing increased leverage over global supply chains and maritime logistics. In response, a coalition of US labour unions recently filed a petition accusing Beijing of distorting shipbuilding markets through subsidies and discriminatory policies. The complaint argues that China's dominance threatens US economic competitiveness and national security. The unions call for penalties on Chinese-built ships docking at US ports and investments to revitalize domestic shipyards. Other major shipbuilding nations like Japan and South Korea have also seen their market shares eroded. Some are looking to boost cooperation with the US to counter China, but face their own constraints in terms of industrial capacity and workforce.
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Castex's Naval Theories Offer Insights for Smaller Powers
The naval theories of French strategist Raoul Castex, which emphasize manoeuvre, offensive action, and creative use of limited means, provide valuable guidance for smaller navies seeking to challenge larger rivals in the 21st century. While affirming the primacy of decisive fleet action as articulated by Alfred Thayer Mahan, Castex introduced important caveats and nuances that are particularly relevant for powers unable to match the resources of naval hegemons.
Castex argued that even for the most powerful navies, command of the sea was always relative and constrained by “servitudes” — the myriad demands on finite naval assets beyond decisive battle. For smaller navies, the implication was they need not fret over an inability to achieve sea control. Instead, they should focus on keeping control through constant manoeuvre. Weaker navies, Castex counselled, should avoid head-on confrontation and instead launch minor counter-offensives to disrupt the enemy. Commerce raiding, attacking isolated ships, and fostering doubt about the enemy's presumed superiority could all play a role. The goal was to force the adversary to disperse forces and create opportunities to seize the initiative, if only momentarily. Preserving one's fleet while avoiding passivity was key.
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Turkey Eyes Summer Assault in Iraq to Secure Strategic Trade Corridor
Turkey is preparing for a series of military operations in northern Iraq this summer aimed at pushing PKK Kurdish militants south and clearing the way for a lucrative new trade route linking the Gulf to Europe via Turkey. The planned offensive reflects Ankara's efforts to reshape the strategic landscape in its southeastern borderlands and position itself as a vital hub in emerging transcontinental supply chains.
Reports suggest Turkey will target PKK strongholds in Iraq's Metina and Gara regions near territory controlled by Ankara's ally, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP). The goal is to cut off the PKK's access to Mosul and secure the route of the envisioned Iraq Development Road Project, a 1,200 km highway and rail network that would carry goods from Iraq's al-Faw port to Turkey. The $17 billion project, backed by Iraq, Turkey, and Gulf states, is a competitor to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor which bypasses Turkey. Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler said this week that Turkey must deploy forces 30-40 km into Iraq to achieve its objectives. Talks are underway for a joint operations centre with Baghdad and greater cooperation with KRG forces to secure the corridor from Mosul to the Turkish border.