In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, March 23rd
Russia Prepares to Sell Natural Gas in Rubles, War in Ukraine Enters a New Phase, Poland Expels 45 Russian Diplomats
Russia Prepares to Sell Natural Gas in Rubles
Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that Russia intends to require the countries it considers as “hostile” to purchase its natural gas exports in rubles going forward. The Russian President ordered the Bank of Russia, the country’s central bank, to develop a system for payments in rubles within a week as a means of securing state assets from the wide-ranging sanctions regime which has been applied to the Russian economy.
The Russian government has listed as “hostile” a number of states which have joined the US-led sanctions regime, including all EU member states, Canada, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Switzerland, and others. Putin stated that it no longer makes sense for Russia to conduct transactions for natural gas going to the EU or the United States in dollars or euros, seeking to protect the Russian economy from a potential fallout resulting from further sanctions being applied to its energy sector. While no formal decision has yet been made, Putin was clear that Russia will continue to supply natural gas in the aforementioned currencies for previously concluded contracts.
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War in Ukraine Enters a New Phase
The initial Russian military campaign across Ukraine appears culminating without achieving its objectives. This failure of Russia’s initial manoeuvres in the war marks an important inflection point as a stalemate develops along all the axes of Russian advance. As the war is settling into a stalemate condition in much of the theatre, the war is not likely to end soon, rather, the war is entering a new phase in which the armed forces of Ukraine and the armed forces of Russia solidify their positions and each digs in for a protracted conflict
A military stalemate describes a condition in war in which neither side can dramatically change the front lines without applying overwhelming military power at the risk of considerable losses. Stalemates can be broken, and this can typically happen when one of the sides loses its will to continue military operations, one of the sides gains or loses a key ally, one of the sides gains a critical technological advantage, or when one of the sides faces domestic upheaval or even collapse. Assessments of the Russian campaign signal that Russia’s initial motorized thrust has culminated and that conditions of stalemate are emerging throughout Ukraine. Russian forces appear to not have the capability to bring in the kind of combat power to the fight that is necessary to break Ukrainian resistance in the short-term, and the kinds of mobilizations that would have the potential of breaking the developing stalemate are months away.
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Poland Expels 45 Russian Diplomats
Poland has expelled 45 Russian diplomats which Warsaw has accused of spying. Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said the individuals concerned were Russian spies “pretending to be diplomats,” and all have been instructed to leave the country. The move follows a report by Poland's domestic counter-intelligence agency, which had identified the individuals possessing diplomatic status as participants in Russian intelligence projects.
Kamiński has stated that Poland is in the process of “breaking up” the activities of Russian secret service agents within the country, though the exact reason that led to this mass expulsion of diplomats remains unclear. Polish Foreign Ministry spokesman Lukasz Jasina said that these Russian citizens have been given five days to leave the country, while one unspecified individual has been assigned as particularly dangerous and must leave Poland within 48 hours. In his statement Jasina suggested that all 45 individuals pose a grave threat to the country amidst a large influx of refugees from Ukraine. Poland joins a number of other EU member states in expelling Russian diplomats, including Bulgaria and the Baltic states, all of whom have accused Russian diplomatic personnel of spying.
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