In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, March 16th
UK Seeks Increased Oil Production from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, China’s Ambiguous Position on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine, France Signals Willingness to Give Corsica Autonomous Status
UK Seeks Increased Oil Production from Saudi Arabia and the UAE
The United Kingdom is hoping to persuade leaders in Saudi Arabia and the UAE to increase oil production in a bid to replace Russian supplies while keeping the price of oil steady. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other government officials arrived in the Gulf for a series of meetings with high-level officials in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Similarly to the United States, the UK plans to phase out all Russian oil imports by the end of this year as part of wide-ranging sanctions targeting Russian businesses.
While Russian oil imports account for less than many countries in mainland Europe, a nonetheless considerable 8 percent of the UK’s entire domestic oil demand is sourced from Russia. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the UK’s largest economic partners in the Middle East, with bilateral trade worth £10.4 billion and £12.2 billion respectively in 2020. UK government officials are thus hoping to lean on extensive economic ties with both countries as they attempt to persuade Saudi Arabia and the UAE to increase oil production as household energy bills in the UK continue to rise. Yet efforts aimed at securing alternative supplies and reducing global oil prices have so far amounted to little. Of the two, Saudi Arabia has been most reluctant to deviate from the current OPEC+ plan of incremental monthly production increases, thereby keeping the price of oil high by constraining supply.
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China’s Ambiguous Position on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
While China has considerably bolstered political, economic and military ties with Russia over recent years, and the two Eurasian powers are increasingly perceived as important allies, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has not prompted a public endorsement by Beijing. Instead of openly supporting Russia, Chinese officials have called for a de-escalation of the conflict, with China seemingly pulling back its support for Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine.
China’s ambivalent position on the war may be a sign that the relationship between Beijing and Moscow has considerable limitations. If China sought to support Russia in achieving victory, it would adopt a different approach that would incorporate intense support for Russia’s economy. China may have credible concerns that overt support for Russia would likely lead to sanctions falling on its own economy, limiting Beijing’s ability to assist Russia as doing so could harm its own political and economic interests. China may be seeking to provide covert support to prop up the Russian economy as it struggles under the weight of US-led sanctions, yet an isolated Russia could also be a favourable outcome to China in the medium-term. A politically, economically and militarily weakened Russia could further increase Moscow’s dependence on Beijing going forward, and cement Russia as a junior partner to China in their relations for years to come.
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France Signals Willingness to Give Corsica Autonomous Status
As France heads into a presidential election next month, protests and demonstrations have broken out on the French island of Corsica, threatening internal stability at an inconvenient time for the French state. After weeks of pressure, the government in Paris appears to be gearing up to offer autonomy to the island’s administration in a bid to appease the island’s independence movement.
The island of Corsica has a population of 330,000 and lies close to the Italian mainland as well as the larger Italian-administered island of Sardinia. Corsican nationalists have been seeking greater autonomy from the French state for decades, and their movement has recently gained in popularity as their members have achieved a number of electoral successes. The island was incorporated into the French state in 1789, and since then Paris has maintained a strong grip on the administration of the island. Yet the suggestion by France’s interior minister means that Paris could be willing to loosen its historic position of power over the Mediterranean island as local protests are becoming difficult to ignore. No details have emerged about what the offer entails or whether the government in Paris is really willing to go through with the promise, but discussions could lead to an autonomous status in which Corsica takes charge of some legislative powers.
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