In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, May 3rd
Russia Accuses Ukraine of Drone Attack on the Kremlin, Iran Seizes Another Oil Tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and other stories.
Russia Accuses Ukraine of Drone Attack on the Kremlin
Tensions continue to escalate between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia accusing Ukraine of attempting to assassinate President Vladimir Putin using drones. However, Ukraine has denied involvement in the attack, which could prompt Russia to escalate the conflict.
The drone incident comes amid a broader increase in drone attacks. Both sides have accused each other of using drones to carry out attacks, with large fires burning in both Russian-occupied Crimea and the central Ukrainian city of Kropyvnytskyi following suspected drone strikes on oil refineries. The situation is further complicated by calls from Russian officials to retaliate against Ukraine in dramatic fashion, including using weapons of mass destruction. With tensions running high and the potential for violence increasing, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains a major geopolitical flashpoint.
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US Plans to Insert Special Forces Units in Taiwan
The US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) recently reported the initiation of drills that simulate operations on Taiwan. The drills, held at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, were part of annual capabilities exercises, where they practiced the insertion of personnel onto Taiwanese soil. Special forces were trained to fire recoilless rifles, breach tunnels, operate drones, and use other tools in preparation for war against China.
US special forces are preparing to conduct operations in Taiwan to act as force multipliers for local units by providing logistics and intelligence support. This strategy aims to enhance Taiwan's resistance against China in a similar way to US efforts in Ukraine. Despite Washington's recognition that the Taiwanese population lacks the same level of resolve as Ukraine, US special forces deployments are seen in Washington as an essential element in laying the groundwork for fierce resistance across Taiwan. Ultimately, the objective is to increase the US's ability to fight Chinese forces through Taiwan.
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Norwegian Energy Companies to Expand Arctic Drilling Operations
Energy companies are looking to increase their drilling operations in the Arctic areas of the Barents Sea, where most of Norway's undiscovered oil and gas resources are believed to be. Norway's government is encouraging this move, hoping to increase energy security and support European partners with energy supply. At a recent conference in Hammerfest, Norway's Petroleum and Energy Minister urged oil and gas companies to find more natural gas resources.
However, developing oil and gas resources in the Barents Sea comes with challenges. The area lacks infrastructure that would make tie-ups and resource development easier, and the harsh environment in the north adds an extra obstacle. Nonetheless, companies like Var Energi and Equinor remain committed to exploring and developing resources in the area, citing successful exploration wells in recent years and a need to maintain production. The Norwegian government has proposed including additional areas in the next licensing round, further signalling its commitment to developing the country's petroleum industry.
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Iran Seizes Another Oil Tanker in the Strait of Hormuz
In the second such incident in less than a week, Iran has seized another oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US Navy. The Panama-flagged Niovi vessel was attacked by naval forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and forced to reverse course into Iranian territorial waters, leading to its seizure.
The latest incident comes after a similar attack took place in the Gulf of Oman just last week, when IRGC naval forces raided a US-bound tanker carrying crude oil. The increase in attacks on oil vessels in the Gulf has been attributed to the former Trump administration's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018. The US blamed Iran for explosions that targeted two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in 2019 and also linked Iran to the 2021 drone attack on an Israeli-owned ship in the Gulf of Oman, in which two crew members were killed. The deployment of the USS Florida capable of carrying 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles into Middle East waters has also added to tensions in the region.
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Iran and Syria Sign Long-term Cooperation Agreements
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have signed long-term cooperation agreements on oil and other sectors to strengthen economic ties between the two nations. The visit marks Raisi's first to Damascus since 2010 and includes a delegation of high-ranking officials from Iran's government and private sector.
The primary purpose of Raisi's visit is to strengthen economic ties and aid Syria in rebuilding the country. As part of the agreements, Iranian state-owned railway company will work to expand its rail network through Iraq and Syria, linking Iran with the Syrian port of Lattakia on the Mediterranean Sea. The visit also signifies the Iranian leadership's strong support for al-Assad, demonstrating that Iran is very much behind the Syrian government in the face of sanctions and air strikes from Israel. Raisi called for reconstruction efforts and for Syrian refugees who fled the country's war to return home, and both leaders praised the partnership between their countries.