In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, May 19th
The Credibility of the Threat China Poses to the US, Japan as a Significant Stakeholder in the Indo-Pacific, and Nuclear Energy Cooperation Between Putin and Xi
Debating the Credibility of the Threat That China Poses to the US
At the beginning of May, David Frum penned an article for the Atlantic titled China Is a Paper Dragon. In it, Frum argues that U.S. policymakers should look to the future with a little more confidence when examining China’s astronomic rise. His justification for this optimistic outlook regarding the competition with China going forward flows from what he perceives to be Chinese weakness.
This weakness, he argues, is derived from multiple sources: a fast-aging population, massive internal debt, and a regime whose worsening repression suggests its declining popularity. To Frum, the claim that China will surpass the U.S. in any meaningful way is “polemical and wrong — and wrong in ways that may mislead Americans into serious self-harming mistakes.” In this light, he brands China as a ‘paper tiger’ — a country with more bark than bite.
While his point expressing the need for the United States to more positively look toward the future is prescient at a time when doubt and distrust seems to run rampant throughout the United States, his justification for why China is weak stands on less stable ground, and has met resistance in the form of a riposte by John Mac Ghlionn in his latest piece titled China Is No Paper Tiger.
To Mac Ghlionn, Frum has failed to appreciate Chinese power by painting an inaccurate picture of modern-day China. He compares a U.S. government pledge to invest more than $1 billion in AI and quantum-information science initiatives with that of the Chinese, and points out that Shenzhen alone has announced a more than $108 billion investment in hi-tech R&D over the next five years.
Furthermore, he notes that unity is a critical ingredient for any country to prosper. As someone who has lived and worked in China, Mac Ghlionn feels that the country is indeed united, as evidenced by the fact that patriotism is at an all-time high. The United States, on the other hand, appears very divided. According to Pew researchers, Americans are more divided than at any point in recent history with tribalism taking hold.
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Japan Should Not Be Overlooked in the Coming Indo-Pacific Tussle
An increasingly common residual effect stemming from the US-China drama that is escalating across the Indo-Pacific is a lack of appreciation among commentators and policymakers of other important regional actors. What this simplistic lens of an exclusively superpower rivalry tends to overlook is the role of so-called “middle powers.”
And this is especially the case when it comes to Japan, perhaps the most well positioned of all regional players to advance its interests. This particularly rings true in Southeast Asia, where Japan is a leading source of infrastructure investments and where the country enjoys tremendously good relations with most other countries in the region.
While a recession at the turn of the century may have undercut Japan’s global standing and facilitated the emergence of China as the preeminent power in Asia, and Article 9 of the post-war Constitution proscribed Japan from offensively projecting military power or adopting an aggressive defence policy, Japan is still a force to be reckoned with.
It possesses the world’s third largest economy, the most advanced navy in Asia and among the largest manufacturing bases in history. In the past decade alone, the Shinzo Abe administration has overseen the country’s transformation into a preeminent middle power in the region and beyond, casting aside old assumptions about a purely inward-looking Japan.
In recent years, Japan has played an integral role in the region on three fronts. Firstly, its distinct brand of subtle and personal diplomacy has allowed Tokyo to cultivate and maintain functional ties with a broad range of regimes in Southeast Asia. Secondly, Japan is providing a viable alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative by kickstarting multiple infrastructure projects across the region. Thirdly, Japan has become a key defence partner for Southeast Asian countries by working with smaller powers such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, thereby helping them develop their maritime surveillance and defensive capabilities.
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Putin and Xi Plan to Power Chinese Nuclear Plants with Russian Reactors
Chinese Premier Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting today via a videoconference to initiate a series of nuclear energy projects that would see Russian nuclear reactors installed at two nuclear facilities in China.
“Russian and Chinese professionals are setting in motion a truly signature, flagship joint project,” Putin said during the ceremony, describing the technology as “powerful state-of-the-art Russian-made nuclear reactors compliant with all the safety regulations and the highest of ecological standards.”
The projects come at a time when China is seeking to reduce its dependence on energy imports, particularly those imported via shipping, as it has justified fears that a blockade by US forces would seriously threaten the development plans of the CCP. This combined with an overreliance on coal for electricity, further compounded by the fact that the majority of its coal is imported from Australia — an ally of the United States — means that China must intensify its drive for energy independence. Failure to do so may lead to China being strangled via the seas, a domain where the United States remains without equals.
But it is not just a one-sided relationship. China is also a key market for Russian oil and gas, and has in the past made major purchases of Russian warplanes and other military technology. Russia is also a major customer for Chinese machinery and consumer goods.
In all, this presents yet another example of the increasingly overlapping interests of China and Russia, and the deepening of ties between two key adversaries of the United States.
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