In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, May 21st
Israel Fires Warning Shots at Diplomatic Inspection Team in Jenin, India Implements Countermeasures Targeting Turkish Strategic Assets, and other stories.
Israel Fires Warning Shots at Diplomatic Inspection Team in Jenin
Israeli forces fired warning shots at a 21-nation diplomatic delegation during a field inspection in Jenin on May 21, 2025. The military acknowledged firing seven shots near diplomats at the eastern entrance to Jenin camp, stating the group “deviated from approved routes” in an active operation zone. The diplomatic contingent included representatives from China, Russia, Britain, France, and Egypt alongside World Food Programme and UNRWA officials.
France, Italy, and Germany summoned Israeli ambassadors, while EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas demanded accountability. Video footage shows Israeli soldiers behind barriers firing toward the diplomatic group during their inspection of areas affected by military operations. The Palestinian Foreign Ministry described the incident as “deliberately targeting an accredited diplomatic delegation” with live fire. The West Bank has experienced intensified Israeli military activity in recent months, particularly around Jenin and other northern urban centres. This confrontation directly challenges international diplomatic monitoring capability in territories under Israeli military control.
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Turkey and Israel Establish Military Hotline
Turkey and Israel implemented a 24/7 military de-confliction hotline in April 2025 following Turkish deployments in Syria after President Assad's December removal. The direct communication channel emerged from Azerbaijan-mediated talks in Baku, with the fifth negotiation round scheduled this month. Israeli officials accept Turkish ground forces north of the strategic “Palmyra line” while opposing Turkish control of airbases near that location, demonstrated through multiple Israeli airstrikes against T4 airbase before Turkish forces arrived.
The central dispute centres on Turkey's planned S-400 air defence deployment at T4 airbase, which would potentially expose Israeli aerial operations targeting Iranian assets. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated Ankara would not intervene if Syria and Israel reached separate agreements, leading to parallel Israel-Syria negotiations in Baku focused on confidence-building measures. Israeli officials continue describing Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's government as “radical jihadists” while seeking to maintain undetected aerial access across Syria for potential operations against Iran, creating direct military competition despite the de-confliction mechanism.
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Coalition Forces Plan Iraq Withdrawal
Coalition Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve, a 30-nation force, will terminate its mission and disband its headquarters in Iraq by September 2025. This decision, following years of delayed negotiations, comes after demands for the withdrawal of foreign forces. While the agreement permits continued operations in Syria until September 2026 and bilateral security partnerships, significant disagreements persist within Iraq regarding the full cessation of foreign military presence.
Iraq's internal divisions over foreign troop presence are driven by diverging material interests and security assessments. Shia political factions and Iranian-backed paramilitary forces advocate for full and immediate withdrawal, citing concerns about national sovereignty. Conversely, Sunni and Kurdish populations largely favour continued foreign presence for counterterrorism assistance and regional stability. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) possess critical gaps in air defence, airpower, and intelligence, which make them dependent on external powers for addressing larger-scale threats.
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Lower Oil Prices Threaten Nigeria's Fiscal Stability
Nigeria's 2025 budget faces significant revenue shortfalls as oil trades at $65 per barrel — $10 below the government's $75 benchmark projection. Oil production reached only 1.68 million barrels daily in April, falling well short of the budgeted 2.06 million target due to Nigeria's OPEC+ quota cap of 1.5 million barrels, ageing infrastructure limitations, and persistent theft in the Niger Delta. These combined production and price gaps reduce government oil earnings, expanding the fiscal deficit from 3.9% to approximately 5% of GDP.
Nigeria's $38 billion foreign reserves provide five-month import coverage, preventing an immediate liquidity crisis. Abuja is planning to implement countermeasures, including enhanced tax enforcement through centralized collection, increased Western bank borrowing, and selective infrastructure project delays. Socioeconomic pressures from the naira's 70% depreciation since May 2023 and persistent inflation intensify security threats as militant groups expand operational territories in Nigeria's Middle Belt states, establishing new positions and exploiting economic grievances for recruitment. Lower energy prices create both direct fiscal impacts and secondary security challenges for Nigeria, testing institutional resilience and reform sustainability during an export commodity downturn.
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India Implements Countermeasures Targeting Turkish Strategic Assets
India has revoked Celebi Aviation's security clearance and suspended Turkish media operations, shifting from diplomatic protest to concrete countermeasures against Turkish interests. This policy recalibration follows Turkey's operational military presence in Pakistan during recent border conflicts, including Turkish Air Force C-130 transport aircraft at Karachi airport and an Ada-class corvette at Karachi naval base. India's defence exports to Armenia strengthen Turkey's Caucasus adversary while expanded maritime cooperation with Greece and Cyprus establishes a naval position against Turkish Mediterranean interests, creating a multi-theatre response to Turkish military engagement along India's borders.
Turkey's defence exports to Pakistan since 2018 have constructed military infrastructure enabling direct operational involvement during cross-border confrontations, despite maintaining $10.4 billion in India-Turkey bilateral trade during 2023-24. Turkey's “Asia Anew” initiative launched in 2019 extends Turkish military influence through defence partnerships in Bangladesh, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, creating a security perimeter along India's maritime and land boundaries. While Indian universities have suspended academic partnerships with Turkish institutions, New Delhi has simultaneously reinforced security cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These coordinated diplomatic and military responses indicate India's strategic assessment that Turkey is becoming an operational security threat requiring direct containment measures.
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Azerbaijan Claims Treaty Prohibits Russian Military Base in Armenia
Azerbaijan states the pending Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty includes provisions prohibiting foreign military bases, directly threatening Russia's 102nd military base at Gyumri operating under lease until 2044. Presidential adviser Hikmet Hajiyev confirmed this position on May 17 while Armenian officials categorically denied such provisions exist.
This base removal position would be a direct challenge to Russia's strategic military position in the South Caucasus, where Moscow maintains forces as a projection mechanism and regional stabilization tool. The contested provision creates complications for Armenia's diplomatic relationship with Russia following eighteen months of security reorientation toward Western powers. Russian removal from Gyumri would fundamentally alter regional security architecture by eliminating Moscow's direct military presence in the Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey corridor, potentially creating a security vacuum in territory Russia considers essential to its southern defence perimeter.