In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, May 14th
EU Approves 17th Russian Sanctions Package, United States Secures $243 Billion Qatar Investment Package, and other stories.
EU Unanimously Approves 17th Russian Sanctions Package
EU ambassadors approved the 17th sanctions package against Russia, blacklisting 189 additional shadow fleet vessels to bring total sanctioned ships to 350, while sanctioning 75 individuals and 30 companies across Kazakhstan, Serbia, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and UAE for supplying dual-use goods. The package bans EU chemical exports usable for missile production and received unanimous approval.
Brussels is preparing additional sanctions targeting Russian financial services, oil, and gas if Moscow rejects a proposed 30-day ceasefire before scheduled Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul. The EU considers bypassing unanimity requirements through bilateral restrictions or converting sanctions to tariffs, preventing Hungarian and Slovak vetoes on energy measures. The commission plans Russian gas phase-out by 2027 through banning new contracts, ending spot purchases by 2025, and enabling force majeure exits from long-term agreements.
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United States Secures $243 Billion Qatar Investment Package
The United States has secured a $243 billion economic package with Qatar, including a $96 billion Qatar Airways order for 210 Boeing 787 and 777X aircraft, representing Boeing's largest wide-body purchase in company history. Additional deals include $38 billion potential Al Udeid Air Base infrastructure investment, $8.5 billion energy partnerships with McDermott International, and $97 billion Parsons Corporation projects across multiple sectors.
Qatar leverages Al Udeid Air Base hosting 10,000 US troops as Central Command forward headquarters to extract maximum economic and security benefits from the American partnership. The investment package reinforces Qatar's regional position following 2017-2021 Saudi-UAE blockade, while securing advanced military capabilities and US protection. The gulf state's massive procurement follows an established pattern of oil monarchies purchasing US weapons and services in exchange for security guarantees, with Qatar specifically maintaining strategic value through its mediation role and major non-NATO ally designation. The deals consolidate Qatar's post-blockade strategy of diversifying partnerships beyond traditional Gulf allies while binding the United States to long-term regional commitment through infrastructure investments and military cooperation agreements extending through 2034.
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United States Lifts Sanctions on Syria
The United States lifted comprehensive sanctions on Syria, ending restrictions that isolated the Syrian economy from the global financial system. The United States can waive executive sanctions immediately but requires congressional action to repeal legislatively mandated restrictions. Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, and Turkey lobbied for sanctions relief to facilitate investment in Syrian reconstruction and stabilize the interim government under Ahmed al-Sharaa.
The decision enables regional power competition for influence over post-Assad Syria as Gulf states prepare large-scale investment while Turkey seeks to consolidate border security. Israel opposes sanctions relief, while Palestinian factions face restrictions under a new Syrian government aligning with US demands. Washington's strategic calculation prioritizes regional stability and Gulf partnership over maximizing leverage through continued economic isolation, enabling reconstruction but reducing capacity to influence Syrian internal political arrangements through financial pressure.
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France Gains European Support for Strategic Autonomy
France is achieving growing European support for strategic autonomy after years of German, Polish, and Baltic opposition, favouring a US-led transatlantic framework. Macron's 2024 proposal for European troops in Ukraine initially faced rejection but gained support, while E5 format coordinates France, UK, Germany, Poland, and Italy on defence positions.
France's domestic political landscape threatens implementation as electoral uncertainty undermines trust in long-term French commitments. Macron faces budget pressure, funding defence increases without new taxes in a constitutionally limited term. French nuclear deterrent provides partial US replacement despite limited arsenal, easier coordination than UK weapons dependent on US systems. France's “European preference” excluding non-EU procurement and linking UK-EU security to fisheries access reinforces perceptions of French interests over European unity. European countries lack alternatives, as weakening US guarantees force dependence on French leadership for continental defence architecture independent of Washington.
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EU, China, Russia Compete for Central Asian Raw Materials
Central Asian states are positioning themselves as global suppliers of critical raw materials, with Kazakhstan providing lithium and uranium, Uzbekistan offering rare earths, Tajikistan controlling lead and zinc reserves, and Kyrgyzstan preparing to license critical mineral extraction. The EU committed 12 billion euros in 2025 including 2.5 billion specifically for critical materials, signed memoranda with Kazakhstan in 2022 and Uzbekistan in 2024, and deployed 938 million euros through EBRD to Uzbekistan and 913 million to Kazakhstan in 2024. China controls almost the entire EU heavy rare earth supply, while Central Asian states currently export unprocessed ores due to limited domestic refining capacity.
The region's landlocked geography forces dependency on Russian and Chinese transport networks, despite EU investment in the Trans-Caspian Corridor alternative. Central Asian governments practice multi-vector diplomacy, balancing competing powers to maximize resource revenues while avoiding strategic subordination to any single bloc. China's Belt and Road Initiative controls eastward trade flows, while Soviet-era infrastructure maintains Russian dominance over northern transport routes and downstream processing facilities. The EU faces structural disadvantages including established Chinese processing monopolies, limited regional refining capacity, and geographic distance from Central Asian deposits. Competition centres on securing long-term supply agreements rather than controlling extraction sites, as regional states leverage resource scarcity to maintain strategic autonomy while great powers compete for reliable access to materials essential for technological and military supremacy.
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China Leads Deep-Sea Mining Race as US Bypasses UN Framework
The International Seabed Authority governs 54% of world's oceans containing polymetallic nodules with lithium, cobalt, manganese, and nickel concentrated in the 4.5 million square kilometre Clarion-Clipperton Zone. China holds 5 of 31 ISA research licences and has signed a memorandum with Cook Islands for seabed mineral collaboration, controlling 95% of global rare earth supply and 75% of lithium-ion battery production. The ocean floor contains 6 times more cobalt, 3 times more nickel, and 4 times more yttrium than terrestrial reserves.
The United States bypassed the UN framework through an April 2025 executive order authorizing deep-sea mining outside ISA jurisdiction despite non-ratification of UNCLOS. China's position near Hawaii through the Cook Islands partnership provides dual commercial and surveillance capabilities in strategic waters. Thirty countries led by France support mining moratoriums including Germany, UK, and Canada, while no African or Asian states join the prohibition. ISA delays in finalizing regulations create a legal vacuum enabling unilateral state action. China's dominance in critical mineral processing combined with deep-sea mining capabilities strengthens leverage over clean energy supply chains.