In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, November 3rd
Conflicting Claims Emerge Over Oil Tanker Incident and A More Pragmatic Approach to Easing Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
Conflicting Claims Emerge Over Oil Tanker Incident
The shipping lanes of the Middle East are becoming increasingly dangerous waters. The waters which lie off the shore of Oman have been the scene of major incidents in recent months, with reported attacks, high jackings and drone strikes on oil shipments on the rise as tensions flare between Israel and Iran. More recently, another incident has occurred which reportedly involves US forces pursuing an Iranian oil tanker. This latest episode is just another example of the way that this maritime war is playing out in the region.
Both sides have offered contradictory accounts of the event. Iranian news said that an Iranian oil tanker was confiscated by US forces before members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps arrived on the scene and took control of the vessel. On the other hand, US officials have said that the Iranian account is untrue and that there had been no US involvement. The Iranian side has released footage of the encounter, which appears to confirm the presence of two US destroyers at the scene. One of the destroyers, the USS The Sullivans, had as recently as ten days ago left the UK Royal Navy Strike Group to supposedly head home and prepare for deployment as part of Task Group Greyhound.
The increased instability in Middle Eastern energy supply chains are part of an embargo which is heavily policed by a joint US, UK and Israeli force. Its stringent enforcement has cut China’s energy imports from Iran drastically. According to the chair of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Masoud Khansari, Iran's oil exports to China fell sharply from $9 billion in 2018 in the first seven months of the year to $11 million in the same period in 2021. While other countries in the region have taken over a large share of Iran's oil exports since then, the fall in exports to Beijing represents a dramatic realignment of energy flows.
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A More Pragmatic Approach to Easing Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
In his time as head of state of the United States, the Trump administration made various unsuccessful attempts at diplomatically engaging with North Korea. And there is little sign of change ahead, as the Biden administration has not indicated any shift from Washington’s long-held position, and continues to insist on the total denuclearization of North Korea. The inability of successive US presidents to divert from a long-standing status quo toward North Korea has ensured that unless a change in policy occurs, a hostile relationship is the only plausible expectation for the years ahead.
As North Korea continues to make strides in developing missile delivery systems, Washington may have to admit that success in prying nuclear weapons away from Pyongyang is increasingly unlikely. Nuclear weapons act as the ultimate tool of deterrence for North Korea, and work to prevent any direct external military pressures. North Korea maintains a sophisticated ballistic missile program, and a stockpile of some 50 nuclear warheads, Moreover, the recent submarine-launched missile tests conducted by Pyongyang signal an intent to develop a second-strike capability, allowing for a retaliatory nuclear strike to any potential first strike on North Korea’s ground-based platforms.
This reality changes the plausibility of achieving a policy of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula. Thus, a more prudent policy would acknowledge that demanding denuclearization from North Korea is unlikely to contribute to any settlement. Instead, Washington could choose to pursue more realistic goals, such as limiting the expansion of current programs in a bid to prevent further proliferation of nuclear weapons. If Washington can learn to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea, easing sanctions on the country could incentivise Pyongyang to negotiate in good faith. It is improbable that a nuclear-armed power would give up its most credible deterrent, a fact the United States should be all too familiar with.
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