In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, November 15th
US Airstrikes Fail to Deter Further Attacks, Ethiopian PM Touts Country's Maritime Ambitions, and other stories.
European Gas Demand Sees a Rebound
After plummeting during the energy crisis, European gas demand saw its first year-on-year increase in October, driven by industrial rebound. But the recent increase seems temporary as forward indicators for gas-reliant sectors like chemicals and construction worsen. However, some industries may never reach pre-crisis levels if production shifts permanently away from Europe.
The uncertain outlook has implications for European emissions, energy infrastructure plans, and economic competitiveness. While gas prices have fallen, weakened demand incentives and shifts in industrial strategy cast doubt on a resurgence in demand. Permanent loss of high-gas industries could force an economic restructuring. As Europe charts its post-crisis course, energy security and strategic autonomy will need to be balanced with industrial priorities.
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US Airstrikes Fail to Deter Further Attacks
The United States has launched new airstrikes in Syria targeting Iran-backed militias, the latest in an escalating series of tit-for-tat exchanges. But the repeated bombings have failed to deter further assaults on US forces amid regional tensions.
The skirmishes highlight risks of US deployments becoming tripwires for escalation. The stated mission of US troops stationed here is to contain ISIS, but with local forces against the US cover for Israeli ground operations, they now face attacks enabled by their own presence, triggering destructive cycles. As goals drift from realities, reassessing force posture for the US would be a prudent endeavour, as a withdrawal may better serve strategic interests. The clashes illuminate tensions inherent in exerting military power abroad.
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Turkmenistan's Persistent Pursuit of Gas Export Ambitions
Turkmenistan is quietly pursuing ways to advance its gas export goals despite obstacles. It is lobbying the United States to ease sanctions hampering the TAPI pipeline through Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. Ashgabat has also sealed a major gas deal with Iraq. However, Russia aims to box in Turkmenistan by sending its own gas to Central Asian states.
Turkmenistan's energy and leadership manoeuvres have geopolitical implications. Breaking out of isolation requires deft diplomacy to engage alternative partners. But Russia retains leverage and seeks regional dominance. Personnel changes could consolidate the new president's power. However, side lining top officials risks internal turmoil. For Ashgabat, balancing external powers while asserting control at home remains key for increased freedom of action. Its precarious position reflects wider Central Asian dynamics between competing powers.
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Revitalizing UK-Oman Partnership
The United Kingdom and Oman are revitalizing their long-standing partnership amid shifting Indian Ocean geopolitics. With an eye on the Indo-Pacific, the UK covets closer GCC ties, starting with its oldest regional ally. Joint naval bases, military exercises, and trade deals showcase deepening cooperation. With China also courting Oman for its key ports, London aims to secure exclusivity in its relationship with Oman.
An energized UK-Oman partnership has strategic implications as powers vie for influence. For the UK, Oman provides regional security leverage and economic opportunities. But China's own overtures showcase Oman's growing desirability. Muscat seeks to balance ties as stability permits lucrative engagement with all. The UK is looking to demonstrate its enduring commitment, even with divided attentions. Historical bonds are a foundation the UK can continue to build upon, but active partnership with Oman is required to fulfil the UK's ambitious 21st century goals.
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US to Share Real-time Intelligence with the Philippines
The United States has reaffirmed its defence commitments to the Philippines. At ASEAN talks, the allies pledged closer military intelligence sharing and joint operations in talks between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Philippine Defense Minister Gilbert Teodoro. However, an enhanced US naval presence in the risks provoking China further, leading to increased militarization.
Real-time intelligence sharing is seen as crucial for the Philippines to conduct safe resupply operations and prepare for contingencies. The complex dynamics involve historical territorial claims, with the Ayungin Shoal symbolizing Manila's claims over the Spratly Islands. The recent South China Sea clashes highlight growing risks as major powers compete in the strategic waterway. But all sides must manage tensions prudently. As coercive tactics spread, preventing miscalculation through dialogue will become increasingly paramount.
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Ethiopian PM Touts Country's Maritime Ambitions
Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed has asserted his landlocked country's right to gain maritime access through neighbouring states, stoking regional tensions. Abiy invoked historical claims and said force is an option, rattling the Horn of Africa. His remarks come amid domestic turmoil as Abiy struggles to unite Ethiopians.
Abiy's maritime rhetoric reflects shifting allegiances but carries dangers. Aligning with Eastern powers brings alternatives to Western partners, but exposes limits without their support. While meant to rally nationalism, bellicose threats could isolate Ethiopia diplomatically and overwhelm its strained security apparatus. Abiy must balance internal politics and regional stability. His ambitions reveal the temptations of aggression when soft power fails. But without careful calculus, bold geopolitical gambits often backfire catastrophically.