In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, November 1st
US, UK, and Canada Implement Coordinated Sanctions on Myanmar, Bolivia Severs Diplomatic Ties with Israel, and other stories.
US, UK, and Canada Implement Coordinated Sanctions on Myanmar
The US, UK, and Canada have imposed coordinated sanctions on Myanmar's government and its finances. This includes limited US sanctions on Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), the state's largest revenue source. The moves aim to cut funding for the military while avoiding full isolation. The measures come as rebel alliances launched major offensives against government forces.
Incremental sanctions reflect diplomatic efforts to pressure Myanmar's military government without triggering economic collapse. But blacklisting MOGE raises the stakes, even if calibrated to limit immediate impacts. With unrest intensifying, the West aims to curb regime revenues while encouraging a government transition. However, sanctions have had minimal sway so far. If conflict continues escalating, calls for tougher measures will likely follow. Myanmar presents complex challenges balancing punishment, restraint, and moving toward lasting solutions.
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GCC and ASEAN Leaders Forge Closer Ties in Riyadh
GCC and ASEAN leaders met in Riyadh to advance cooperation amid regional tensions. The summit promotes an "Asia minus China" strategy to diversify economic ties. With $6 trillion combined GDP, both blocs aim to expand beyond current $110 billion trade flows. The meeting proceeded despite the Gaza crisis, underscoring resolve, with Saudi Arabia and Indonesia key in driving closer Gulf-Asia ties.
The summit signals deepening Gulf-Asia integration. Despite differences, GCC and ASEAN share interests in hedging China risks and developing new economic partnerships. However, realizing the full potential will require reconciling disparate political systems and priorities. If successful, this bloc cooperation could create a new axis reshaping Asia's economic geography. But executing joint projects and aligning regulations remain challenging next steps. While promising on paper, the vision faces daunting execution barriers.
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France Expands Ties with Central Asia
French President Emmanuel Macron is engaged in outreach to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as France aims to boost ties in Central Asia. Macron and the Kazakh president signed agreements spanning energy, minerals, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals. The visit comes as Kazakhstan distances itself from Russia over Ukraine, offering partners like France new openings. However, Russia still views Central Asia as a part of its sphere of influence.
Macron's tour highlights Central Asia's complex balancing act between powers. As Russia is focused on Ukraine, France sees an opportunity to advance cooperation. But Russia and China hold established economic and security sway in the region. While diversifying partnerships makes sense, Central Asian states tread carefully to avoid alienating Moscow. France's overtures may yield some gains but risk exacerbating great power tensions. The region appears to be caught in broader geopolitical currents outside its control.
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Political Tensions Meet Economic Dependence in Armenia-Russia Ties
Armenia's political tensions with strategic partner Russia contrast with its deepening economic reliance. Trade has surged as Armenia re-exports sanctioned goods to Russia. But this dependence, including on remittances and gas imports, gives Russia leverage. When an arms license bill was postponed, many saw it as Moscow signaling economic punishment risks. Armenia lacks easy alternatives, with few exports beyond Russia.
Armenia aims to balance relations, but its economy tilts heavily toward Russia. Strong trade growth hasn't eased political rifts. Still, Russia has powerful economic tools if it chooses coercion. Quickly reorienting trade and energy reliance is unrealistic. For now Armenia maintains institutional ties with Russia. But economics could be weaponized if relations deteriorate further. The mismatch between political estrangement and economic integration is inherently unstable.
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War in Ukraine Tests the Viability of Principled Negotiation
Russia's invasion of Ukraine raised concerns about the viability of principled negotiation in global affairs. But so far, key players have continued grounding positions in fairness, not just relative power. Demands for Russia to honor principles like sovereignty show ethics still matter. Even non-aligned states avoid outright support for Moscow. Public opinion remains influential, indicating attempts to ignore it would backfire.
The war's aftermath will shape lessons on resolving disputes. If Russia's unprincipled coercion is seen to fail, it may discourage similar actions elsewhere. But if force pays dividends, international arrangements could unravel as arms racing and nuclear proliferation accelerate. For now, principled stances persist, offering hope ethical persuasion endures. But the stakes are high for defending rules-based solutions. The future of stable relations depends on reaffirming negotiation based on justice, not just brute strength.
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Bolivia Severs Diplomatic Ties with Israel
Bolivia has severed diplomatic relations with Israel in protest over the war in Gaza, recalling its ambassador and pledging aid to Palestinians. It joins Colombia and Chile in recalling envoys. Bolivia previously cut Israel ties over Gaza in 2009 before resuming them last year. President Luis Arce accused Israel of disproportionate attacks. Meanwhile, Hamas welcomed the move, calling on Arab states to follow suit.
Bolivia's break with Israel underscores shifting South American dynamics on the Israel-Palestinian conflict. As death tolls mount in Gaza, leftist governments are under domestic pressure to take a stand. Cutting diplomatic ties allows them to signal solidarity with Palestinians. But such moves are still largely symbolic policy shifts. Deeper economic disengagement from Israel remains unlikely for most.