In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, November 24th
The Middle East Under More Modest US Involvement and Ties Between Vietnam & Japan Will Now Cover Cybersecurity
The Middle East Under More Modest US Involvement
As the US continues to draw down its presence across the Middle East, regional relationships change quickly and new partnerships emerge. Washington’s gradual realignment of military assets toward the Info-Pacific are a part of the equation, but even beyond its competition with China, the United States has become less interested in the Middle East ever since a domestic shale revolution saw a drastic rise in energy production which lowered incentives for dealing with leaders in oil-rich states. But in a strange twist of fate, Washington’s very hands-on approach in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East has, intentionally or otherwise, resulted in a more powerful Iran, and helped foster a power vacuum which is attracting other powers.
Despite years under heavy sanctions and widespread regional isolation, the Islamic Republic of Iran has emerged as a powerful force in the Persian Gulf, and has demonstrated a resilience to intense external pressures. Through its support for rebels combating Saudi-led coalition forces, Tehran has repelled Riyadh and exposed US-made Saudi air defence systems while demonstrating critical Saudi vulnerabilities through asymmetric warfare operations. On the other hand, Tehran has maintained ties with neutral Gulf states by working closely with officials in Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar. Securing alliances with Shiite militias in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Huthi forces in Yemen, and with Syria's President Bashar al Assad, Iran emerges reinforced from the tumultuous decades that have passed after the Gulf War. Perhaps most significantly, Tehran has secured a 25-year strategic partnership with Beijing.
In many ways, China is becoming a major stakeholder elsewhere in the Middle East. One drastic change from previous decades has been the shift in oil and gas supply chains. With the United States importing less oil and gas, and with China importing considerably more, Beijing has quickly become the Arabian Peninsula's most important customer for raw materials. This alignment of economic interests has led to a warming of political ties, and most of the cooperation undertaken by Beijing here, much like elsewhere, is expressed through economic or trade partnerships. But this is not to say that Arabian Gulf countries are planning to break off ties with Washington, that would be disastrous for the region. Rather, increasingly, both Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are willing to work with Beijing despite the blowback from Israel or the United States.
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Ties Between Vietnam & Japan Will Now Cover Cybersecurity
Japan and Vietnam have signed a cybersecurity agreement to bolster rapidly developing ties across many crucial sectors. The move supplements a deal signed earlier this year which promises collaboration in military cooperation, economic revitalization, sustainable development, climate change, agriculture and energy, and involves a major commitment between the two countries to quickly work on several strategic issues of mutual interest in the backdrop of China’s growing military and economic power.
In a recent meeting between Japan’s Defense Minister Kishi Nobuo and his Vietnamese counterpart, Phan Van Giang, a new field of cooperation has been added to the already broad-ranging relationship enjoyed between the two countries of late: cybersecurity. While not naming China outright, both Vietnam and Japan acknowledged the growing need to balance against China in the region. Both have expressed "serious concern" over China's drive to boost its military capabilities and have focused their opposition to any “unilateral attempts to change the status quo,” condemning any activities that would escalate tensions. At the same time, the deals between the have facilitated the transfer of military technologies and defence equipment from Japan to Vietnam.
While the exact types or amounts of weapons that will supposedly form a part of a technology transfer remains unclear, closer political and military ties between Tokyo and Hanoi nonetheless represent a shift in regional dynamics. The export of weapons by Japan is a relatively new phenomenon in the region, and will pose difficult questions about the regional security environment in the years ahead. Japan shares many of the same advanced military platforms which consistently ensure US power across the international maritime space, and so this step undertaken by Japan to export arms to regional customers may represent a serious check on Chinese power in the coming years, especially when combined with other allied forces in Southeast Asia.
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