In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, November 22nd
South Africa Weighs Diplomatic Ties with Israel, BRICS Summit Addresses Gaza Crisis, and other stories.
South Africa Weighs Diplomatic Ties with Israel
South Africa's parliament voted overwhelmingly this week to suspend diplomatic ties with Israel “until a ceasefire is agreed to” in Gaza. The resolution calls for shuttering the Israeli embassy in Pretoria. However, the decision is non-binding and will ultimately be up to President Cyril Ramaphosa whether to implement it.
The symbolic resolution reflects growing domestic pressure on Ramaphosa's government to take action against Israel over civilian deaths in Gaza. Yet practically severing ties could jeopardize South Africa's relationships with Israel's allies, notably the United States. As such, Ramaphosa faces a difficult balancing act. He will likely use rhetoric to demonstrate solidarity with the Palestinian cause, which resonates strongly domestically given South Africa's history of apartheid. However, wholesale embassy closures appear unlikely. South Africa will probably opt for limited diplomatic censure rather than severance. Regardless, domestic backlash will continue should the situation in Gaza deteriorate further.
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Kosovo-Serbia Tensions Flare Amid Nationalist Rhetoric and Failed Talks
Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo have escalated in recent months, fuelled by a September attack on a Kosovo police patrol that left an officer dead. Hardline rhetoric and military posturing on both sides have raised international concerns about potential conflict. Upcoming elections in Serbia on December 17th stand to further inflame nationalist sentiments.
The situation remains precarious, given little progress in EU-mediated negotiations between Belgrade and Pristina. With talks stalled, provocations and unilateral actions could presage another outbreak of violence. Kosovo’s prime minister has agreed to allow a Serb-majority municipality, a key Serbian demand. However, Kosovo may leverage the concession to press for recognition, which Serbia fiercely resists. Meanwhile, Serbia’s president appears inclined to use the Kosovo issue for political advantage ahead of elections. Unable to forge agreement, both parties seem willing to stir instability for domestic gain.
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Uranium Prices Soar Amid Supply Constraints
Uranium prices have hit 15-year highs, lifted by surging demand for nuclear power amid a global push towards carbon-free energy sources. Prices exceeding £60 per kilogram come as Western sanctions sideline Russian supply and mine disruptions pinch output.
This supply squeeze coincides with accelerating demand, as more countries embrace nuclear to enable decarbonisation goals. With demand booming and supplies tightening, uranium markets have grown. However, mines face mounting pressure to bolster production. Development timelines stretch out years, given stringent licensing and capital requirements in the complex industry. Until substantial new supply comes online, prices look poised to continue their rise. Still, should the momentum behind nuclear slow, or should Russian supplies return, the market could see a swift reversal. For now, scarcity and strategic necessity underpin soaring prices.
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Xi Ties US Cooperation to Accepting China's Rise
In remarks to President Biden, Chinese leader Xi Jinping situated the US-China relationship within a context of "accelerating global transformations unseen in a century." This concept underpins Beijing's vision of shifting global dynamics driven by emerging multipolarity, economic interdependence, and global institutions reshaped to prioritize China's interests. Xi presented partnership as conditional on American acceptance of these changes.
Xi's stance signals his view of China as rightfully claiming global leadership amid inevitable US decline. His vision allows cooperation only on Beijing's terms, within a Sino-centric order. This suggests bilateral engagement will prove fragile, vulnerable to ruptures if Washington pushes back against Chinese ambitions. Meanwhile, Xi casts Moscow as the ideal partner in reshaping global affairs, given alignment on opposing US dominance. His remarks expose the paradox of seeking stability with America while working alongside Russia to hasten its replacement as global hegemon. Beijing appears primed to leverage engagement where possible while advancing a deeply revisionist agenda with those sharing rival interests.
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Germany Seeks African Partners for Energy Transition
Germany held an investment conference with African leaders this week aimed at expanding economic ties, especially around green energy. Berlin sees opportunities for Africa to help meet its rising demand for hydrogen and other renewables as it pursues an energy transition. However, the initiative extends a German program critiqued for prioritizing Western investor interests over Africa's development needs.
Germany trails rivals in current Africa trade and investment. While seeking to catch up, its approach channels African resources towards German industry through projects like hydrogen iron production. With other schemes, African leaders report getting “lectures” rather than substantial engagement from Germany. Effective partnerships acknowledging African agency seem lacking. Unless addressed, flaws in initiatives like the hydrogen push risk fuelling accusations of neocolonial resource extraction. Meanwhile, failure to cultivate mutual understanding and respect will continue ceding African ties to competitors.
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BRICS Summit Addresses Gaza Crisis
Leaders from the BRICS bloc of major emerging economies convened an extraordinary virtual summit this week to address the crisis in Gaza. The grouping, which will expand to include others like Iran and Saudi Arabia, issued a statement calling for an immediate ceasefire and condemning forced displacement of Palestinians as war crimes.
The harsh rhetoric signals growing willingness within the Global South to repudiate Israel's actions and highlights a split with Western powers seen as enabling them. For individual BRICS states, however, economic ties with Israel may still temper policy shifts. However, the bloc's expanding political and economic clout offers a platform to counterweigh Western dominance over Israel-Palestine issues. As the grouping moves towards an alternative financial architecture less dependent on the US and allies, it could gain leverage to turn statements into meaningful pressure for both restraint and accountability regarding Gaza.