In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, November 30th
Turkish Laser-Guided Artillery in Use by Ukraine, Russia Supports a "Natural Gas Union” In Central Asia, and other stories.
Bomber Strikes Military Targets in Central African Republic
The Central African Republic (CAR) has government threatened consequences after an aircraft is said to have flown across the country’s northern border and bombed CAR troops and Russian paramilitary forces in the town of Bossangoa.
Bangui reported major material damage following the bombing, and the release statement suggests the bombing campaign was perpetrated from Chad. The CAR and Chad have a history of tense relations as both countries have accused each other of harbouring rebel groups. This would likely spark a diplomatic flashpoint that could lead to cross-border incursions, but is unlikely to escalate into large-scale military confrontations for the time being.
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Turkish Laser-Guided Artillery in Use by Ukraine
Ukraine's military is reportedly already employing versions of the Multi-Barrel Rocket Launcher system (MBRL) from Turkish manufacturer Rokestan. Reports indicate that the launchers are mounted on Russian-made trucks and that were equipped with precision-guided 230mm TRLG-230 artillery rockets.
Combined with TB2 Bayraktar drones, Turkish TRLG-230 missiles could already be used to pinpoint Russian targets. Some reports have suggested that Turkey has already transferred at least 50 TRLG-230 rockets and an unspecified number launchers to Ukraine, and that these weapons have already been employed in combat. It remains unclear if the launchers and rockets were delivered as part of a military aid package or a direct sale.
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Nigeria to Stop Importing Petroleum Products In 2023
Nigeria’s oil minister Timipre Sylva has said his country expects to stop importing petroleum products from the third quarter of next year. Nigeria is a major petroleum product importer and has been unable to take advantage of high crude oil prices because it swaps domestically-produced crude oil for refined petroleum products.
Imports of petroleum products will be lower because a refurbished refinery in Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta and the new Dangote refinery will soon increase Nigeria’s crude production. Nigeria was Africa’s largest oil producer just two years ago, but the country has since been surpassed by Libya and Angola. As crude oil prices rose, the Nigeria’s gas subsidies ended up costing Nigeria roughly ten times what it had originally budgeted this year.
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Russia Supports a “Natural Gas Union” In Central Asia
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed creating a regional “gas union” with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to establish a mechanism to ship natural gas between the three countries.
The press secretary for Russian President Vladimir, Dmitry Peskov, has confirmed that the proposal was being discussed between the three countries and stressed the initiative is necessary because there was a “need for synchronization” between sellers of natural gas in Central Asia. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan share a gas pipeline network connected with Russia and a pipeline transporting natural gas from Turkmenistan to China.
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NATO Remains Vague over Timeline for Ukraine’s Membership
While top NATO officials and diplomats reiterated their support for the 2008 Bucharest declaration but have remained vague about when exactly Ukraine might join the alliance. A recent meeting of NATO defence ministers saw the alliance state the focus for now is getting Ukraine through the war and the winter.
NATO foreign ministers pledged to continue to support Kiev and identified securing additional air-defence systems as a top priority for Ukraine. Moscow has begun to regularly barrage Ukrainian cities with missiles and drones, taking a toll on the country’s vulnerable electricity grid. Authorities have said that at least a quarter of the power grid is now damaged, requiring scheduled blackouts and repeated attempts to repair power stations.