In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, November 8th
US and India Collaborate on Deep-Water Port in Sri Lanka, Italy's Plan for Migrant Detention Centres in Albania, and other stories.
US and India Collaborate on Deep-Water Port in Sri Lanka
The US is financing a $553 million deep-water port terminal project in Sri Lanka, competing with China's infrastructure investments. The project aims to boost Colombo's shipping capacity amid the country's economic crisis. The US touts it as transformational infrastructure without adding debt, in contrast to controversial Chinese-funded projects. India is also a partner in the new terminal, underscoring strategic regional interests.
The joint India-US project reflects shared concerns over China's economic footprint in Sri Lanka. While providing development finance, it works to compete with Beijing's influence. Given India's security stakes, the US is leveraging Delhi's clout to limit Chinese inroads. Their collaboration aims to offset the risks of Chinese-led projects dominating Sri Lanka's key infrastructure. It demonstrates joint resolve to constrain China's regional sway via its Belt and Road initiative. Though economic in nature, the geopolitical calculus is paramount for both India and the US.
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Taiwan and the UK Sign Enhanced Trade Partnership
Taiwan signed an Enhanced Trade Partnership with the United Kingdom, aiming to boost economic ties and support its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade pact. The deal seeks to enhance investment and cooperation on digital trade, energy, and emissions. Taiwan hopes it encourages other European states to improve trade ties amid its isolation.
The agreement reflects Taiwan leveraging informal partnerships to further integration. Boosting trade with the UK, a new CPTPP member, bolsters Taiwan's accession case despite Chinese opposition. The deal may also prod more EU engagement. For the UK, it signals commitment to deepen ties with Asia following Brexit more broadly, and a desire to further integrate Taiwan into the security and economic architecture of the West. But substantial progress hinges on managing China's objections.
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Escalation in Gaza Threatens Regional Energy Infrastructure
While the Israel-Hamas war has not yet disrupted Middle East energy flows, the risks are rising as the conflict drags on. In particular, a spillover of violence along Israel's northern borders could severely threaten investment and infrastructure. Gas pipelines in Egypt and Jordan face exposure, with supply disruptions potentially crippling for Jordan. Meanwhile, major gas field development deals face delays over political sensitivities. Lebanon's offshore drilling near disputed waters is also jeopardized.
The instability highlights energy's growing geopolitical role in the Middle East conflict. While oil and gas transit continues, existing and planned projects are threatened by widening violence. In such a scenario, energy partners in Europe could see supply reliability erode. With infrastructure crossing contested borders, energy risks becoming both victim and propagator of tensions. A regional war could have severe economic impacts, while also deterring foreign investment. For conflict-wracked states like Lebanon, setbacks could be devastating. Avoiding energy entanglement will require urgently cooling heads on all sides.
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Turkey's Expanding Footprint in the South Caucasus and Central Asia
Turkey's focus appears to be expanding towards former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. This shift in attention is driven by a shared cultural bond among Turkic-speaking nations and further solidified by trade and security agreements negotiated through the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).
On one hand, Turkey's growing engagement in these regions underscores Ankara's aspiration to expand its influence, potentially crowding Russia out of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, strategically significant regions where Turkic-speaking populations are prevalent. However, the extent to which other OTS members share Turkey's ambitions remains uncertain. Disagreements on the Israel-Gaza conflict and competing trade corridors reveal potential fault lines within the OTS. Furthermore, many OTS members, despite their desire to reduce Russia's influence, remain dependent on Russian infrastructure for energy exports, making Turkey's vision of an Ankara-led Turkic world order a complex and challenging proposition.
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Italy's Plan for Migrant Detention Centres in Albania
Italy plans to build migrant detention centres in Albania to process asylum seekers arriving by sea, which could serve as a model for similar external deals. Albania would host up to 36,000 migrants annually under the agreement. While hailed by Italy's PM as a bold European solution, the deal sparked surprise and concerns in Albania over capacity.
The deal highlights the EU's outsourcing approach to migration amid political tensions. But offshoring asylum seekers does not resolve underlying issues. For Albania, hosting centres deepens dependence on Italy's agenda, raising sovereignty questions. The lack of civil consultation also risks public backlash. With details still scarce, the policy's viability and replicability are both unclear. Unless cooperation addresses root causes, not just symptoms, lasting solutions to increased migration will stay elusive.
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Russia's Ongoing Pursuit of a Red Sea Naval Base
Russia still seeks to advance broad strategic goals like expanding its naval reach. Eritrea has reiterated openness to hosting a Russian base, eyeing sites like the ports of Massawa and Assab. A Red Sea foothold would support Moscow's regional sway and allow access to key maritime trade routes. But competing priorities and rival powers are hindering progress so far. China, France, Japan and the US maintain nearby bases, while Eritrea builds ties with Beijing.
Russia's naval ambitions, though stymied, signal its intent to project power along critical Indian Ocean shipping lanes. Basing negotiations with Eritrea demonstrate Moscow's persistence despite a currently overstretched military. But regional competition with China and Western powers adds hurdles. The costs and divisions from Ukraine further constrain Russia's capacity to establish a Red Sea foothold. While strategically appealing, a new base would tax Moscow's strained resources. Russia's desire for global reach still exceeds its grasp. Nonetheless, the Kremlin's aspirations reveal maritime power's enduring geopolitical value.