In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, November 29th
Gulf States Leverage Aid for Regional Sway, US Accuses Indian Official of Directing Sikh Separatist Murder, and other stories.
Gulf States Leverage Aid for Regional Sway
Major Gulf nations have deployed over $200 billion in sovereign bailouts across the Middle East and North Africa since the 1960s to wield influence. Financial rescues aim to stabilise neighbours, sway transitions, and contain threats — from conflict zones to the Arab Spring's turmoil. A report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies charts bailout diplomacy's evolution with regional power shifts.
While Saudi Arabia has been the top Gulf donor overall, accounting for over half of the $200 billion disbursed, its share has declined in recent years as Qatar and the UAE have ramped up spending more assertively since 2011. Priorities have shifted from showing solidarity with Arab nationalist regimes in the 1960s-70s to reinforcing buffers against the perceived threats of Iran and Islamists in more recent decades. With economic crises still raging across the region, Gulf financial largesse continues actively shaping political outcomes everywhere from North Africa to Pakistan. But competition between the leading benefactor states is also heating up in parallel to wider foreign policy divergences emerging within the Gulf bloc.
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Kazakhstan Cools Ties With Russia While Courting China
Kazakhstan recently halted exports of over 100 products to Russia, mainly military items banned under US-imposed sanctions over Ukraine. This sign of growing distance comes as Kazakhstan increasingly courts China to mitigate trade fallout. It is expanding agricultural exports to China while more than doubling Caspian oil shipments to reduce reliance on Russian pipelines.
Kazakhstan's strategic recalibration was on full display during a recent visit by Putin. The Kazakh leader broke norms by speaking Kazakh with the Russian delegation instead of Russian. While still marking close ties on the surface, the overtures toward Beijing spotlight an unmistakable erosion. With China offering a $30 billion vista for roads, rail and pipelines under its Belt and Road Initiative, Kazakhstan leverages its geography between East and West in a delicate balancing act distancing Moscow. By coupling growing security autonomy with positioning as a trade bridge between major powers, the Kazakh stance amounts to carefully stepping out of Russia's orbit.
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US Accuses Indian Official of Directing Sikh Separatist Murder
United States federal prosecutors allege an Indian government intelligence officer recruited a man in a failed conspiracy to assassinate a New York-based Sikh activist advocating separatism in India. The rare specific charges of overseas clandestine plotting to kill a critic spotlight accusations of India transnational targeting of dissidents.
The indictment complicates already tense India-Canada ties after Ottawa accused Indian involvement in a Canadian Sikh activist's killing. With the CIA director among top officials confronting New Delhi, the crisis risks undermining intensive US efforts to expand Indian partnership as a critical pillar of its China strategy. Though India denies state-backed terror, the White House made clear such murder schemes could damage trust. While New Delhi announced an inquiry committee, immediate responses risk appearing defensive. Nevertheless, the rare specific charges spotlight aggressive transnational efforts to suppress political opposition.
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Russia Manoeuvres to Control Iraq's Giant New Oil Find
Russia is moving to take over Iraq's massive new Eridu oil discovery, the biggest find there in 20 years with up to 15 billion barrels. By securing approval for Japan's Inpex to sell its 40% stake, Russia's Lukoil looks to obtain full control of the field. It comes as Moscow and Beijing push wider efforts to edge Western energy giants out of Iraq.
The play spotlights a broader strategy Russia and China have telegraphed through aggressive energy deals and infrastructure projects to make Iraq a lynchpin of their Middle East ascendancy. With Western influence and business opportunities now minimal, the Eridu grab caps Russia's effective control of Iraqi oil after similar complex manoeuvres locked in the Kurdish north. The overt side lining of the West clears the path for greater Sino-Russian leverage.
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UAE and China Extend $4.9 Billion Currency Swap
The UAE and China have extended their bilateral currency swap agreement for another 5 years, now with a value of $4.9 billion. The renewal by the countries' central banks aims to facilitate trade and investment by enabling direct settlement in local currencies. An accompanying deal also launched deeper collaboration on developing central bank digital currencies.
With UAE-China trade expected to reach $200 billion annually by 2030, the liquidity provision through currency settlements hopes to bolster financial links supporting that growth. This renewal also dove tails China inking a similar $6.9 billion swap agreement with Saudi Arabia earlier this month. The flurry of currency cooperation spotlights the Gulf's expanding financial and monetary entanglement with China through innovative channels beyond headline investment pledges. By systematically reinforcing multiple pillars of bilateral commercial architecture, the latest string of central bank partnerships aim to shore up an enabling environment for continued trade explosion between China and key Gulf states.
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Sudanese General Accuses UAE of Aiding Rival Paramilitaries
A top Sudanese army officer has openly alleged the United Arab Emirates is providing supplies to support fearsome rival paramilitaries in Sudan's conflict. General Yassir al-Atta claimed the UAE has flown unspecified aid to the Rapid Support Forces through neighbouring countries like Uganda and Chad. The RSF has gained momentum lately, dislodging the army in parts of Darfur.
The UAE asserts it is focused on humanitarian assistance and de-escalation. But Atta warned of consequences for any country backing the RSF rebellion. While the UAE financed Sudan's failed transition, it has been publicly quiet on the war. The rare specific allegation of foreign meddling comes as Sudan's army chief plans his first UAE trip since fighting erupted. If accurate, it would signify external powers manoeuvring for influence amid the seesawing fortunes of Sudan's political blocs.