In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, October 6th
Mali Flirting with Russian Mercenaries and India Expects First S-400 Delivery This Year
Mali Flirting with Russian Mercenaries
Despite the presence of thousands of French and UN troops in Mali, conflict has engulfed the country in violence, which has even spread to neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger. Mali has in fact become one of the most violent areas of Africa’s entire Sahel region, — a semi-arid grassland around the southern limit of the Sahara Desert — as violent attacks on government forces become increasingly commonplace. As international investors threaten to pull out, Mali is desperately seeking ways of obtaining stability.
Ever since the last coup took place in May this year, international investors have warned the military government in Mali that foreign aid will stop unless the government makes drastic political reforms. France, which operates thousands of counterterrorist troops throughout the Sahel, was one of the principal critics of the coup, and French threats to withhold aid appear to have pushed the military government in Bamako to seek financial aid elsewhere. That elsewhere appears to be Russia, as the government in Mali has been attempting to replace the French military presence which has brought little political progress to the country.
Mali has for years maintained close ties to Russia, with the two countries signing two separate defence cooperation agreements in 1994 and 2019 respectively. Now, as relations between Paris and Bamako sour, the transitional government of Mali has reportedly been negotiating with the Wagner Group, a private military contractor tied to the Russian state. Reports indicate that Mali wants to spend around $10 million a month to hire Wagner Group military trainers which will assist in troop training and accompany Mali troops into combat zones. Whether the imminent deal between Mali and Wagner Group is a genuine search for security or threat to its international investors is unclear, but regardless, such negotiations are sure to attract the attention of Paris and Washington.
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India Expects First S-400 Delivery This Year
In October 2018, India signed a deal worth $5 billion for the purchase of five units of the S-400 air defence missile system from Russia. Following the signing of the deal, New Delhi was on the receiving end of a warning by Washington, where officials made clear that the deal may invite US sanctions. Nevertheless, India last year made the first $800 million payment to Russia for the missile system. India seems to have swept Washington’s warnings to one side and appears determined to go ahead with the purchase.
The S-400 is considered a highly effective system. Comprised of an anti-aircraft weapon system, a radar system and launcher vehicles, the S-400 will give India a highly-capable surface-to-air weapons system. As things stand, Indian servicemen have already arrived in Russia to learn how to operate the missile system, and the Indian armed forces will soon receive the first S-400 regiment delivery from Russia. With advanced training and a timely delivery of the systems likely, New Delhi is hoping to bring the systems into operational service before the end of the year.
But the deal may yet faulter in the face of US sanctions. Following US measures against Turkey for its purchase of the S-400 system, there are credible fears in New Delhi that Washington may impose similar measures on India. Through the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), the US has on multiple occasions applied its sanctions regime on purchases of Russian weapons, so fears in New Delhi are hardly unfounded. A senior US diplomat visiting New Delhi described the purchase of the S-400 system as “dangerous,” and said that the purchase of the S-400 was a point of discussion between India and the US.
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