In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, October 18th
QatarEnergy and Shell Seal 27-Year LNG Deal to Supply the Netherlands, US Vetoes UN Resolution for Gaza Ceasefire, and other stories.
China and Indonesia Deepen Economic Ties at Belt and Road Forum
At the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing, China signalled willingness to expand economic ties with Indonesia across digital technology, renewable energy and more. President Xi told President Jokowi that China seeks closer industrial integration and backs projects like Indonesia's new capital. Jokowi also sought Chinese investment in high-speed rail and renewables.
The warmer engagement highlights China's continued economic gravity. Beijing offers the infrastructure and energy investment Jakarta needs for development, whatever the political frictions. However, over-reliance on China also poses risks if projects under-deliver or debt mounts. Moreover, Southeast Asian nations remain uneasy over China's strategic ambitions. As great power competition intensifies, balancing pragmatic cooperation with preserving strategic autonomy will test leaders' skill. Economics alone will not dictate alignments in a divided region, but pragmatic regional leaders still see China as key to prosperity.
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US and Marshall Islands Ink Waters-for-Aid Pact
The US and Marshall Islands signed pacts granting the US military exclusive access to Marshallese waters in return for $2.3 billion in aid over 20 years. This bolsters the US foothold in the Pacific as China seeks regional influence. But compensation for nuclear testing impacts was excluded from the deal.
With Congress yet to approve funding, delays could undermine US credibility. Still, securing naval access works to counter China's influence in the Pacific. The deal underscores the strategic value of these Pacific partnerships for Washington. Exclusivity prevents the establishment of a military footprint by China. The US Congress's approval of the funding package, known as the Compacts of Free Association, is essential for the final implementation of these agreements, with an upcoming subcommittee hearing scheduled to discuss the matter.
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Amazon River System Faces Worst Drought in a Century
The worst drought in over a century is devastating the Amazon rainforest. Major rivers like the Solimões have dried up completely in places. Manaus on the Negro River has reached its lowest water level in 120 years. The drought hampers the Amazon's role as a carbon sink and raises fire risks. Shipping routes and food supplies are disrupted.
The crisis underscores the Amazon's economic importance beyond ecology. Vital shipping channels and trade routes have halted amid low river levels. Food and fuel supplies are sharply reduced for millions in the region. Drought conditions threaten outbreaks of diseases like malaria as well. The loss of the Amazon's biodiversity and carbon storage would also have cascading global impacts. But immediate local effects on jobs, prices and health showcase Brazil’s dependency on the river system. Adapting to extreme weather events is now imperative, on top of emissions cuts.
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Turkey Extends Military Operation Mandate in Syria and Iraq
The Turkish parliament has voted to extend the mandate allowing its security forces to conduct cross-border operations in Syria and Iraq for an additional two years. The vote, which passed with 357 in favour and 164 against, permits Turkey to deploy troops to Syria and northern Iraq. This extension follows Turkey's recent large-scale air offensive in northern Syria, which targeted dominant Syrian Kurdish groups.
The implications of this extension are significant for the region. It underscores Turkey's ongoing concerns about perceived threats and security risks emanating from various organizations in Iraq and Syria. This mandate, which has been extended multiple times since it was first introduced in 2014, has enabled Turkey to carry out ground incursions in both Syria and Iraq. It also reflects President Erdoğan's commitment to creating a buffer zone in Iraq and Syria beyond Turkey's southern border.
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QatarEnergy and Shell Seal 27-Year LNG Deal to Supply the Netherlands
QatarEnergy has signed a 27-year deal to supply up to 3.5 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually to the Netherlands starting in 2026. Shell will purchase the LNG, which comes from Qatar's massive North Field expansion project. Qatar is boosting LNG exports to help meet European demand as the continent reduces Russian gas reliance. The agreement mirrors recent Qatari long-term supply pacts with both France and China.
These agreements reflect Qatar's position as a significant global LNG player and are indicative of the expanding role of LNG in global energy dynamics. It's noteworthy that this deal follows a similar 27-year LNG agreement signed with France’s TotalEnergies, further solidifying Qatar's position in the European energy market. This development occurs against the backdrop of the world's largest LNG project, the North Field expansion, expected to augment Qatar's export capacity by a staggering 48 million tons per year by 2027.
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US Vetoes UN Resolution for Gaza Ceasefire
In a recent United Nations Security Council session, the United States cast a solitary vote against a resolution calling for a temporary halt in the conflict. The resolution received strong support from 12 council members. US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, explained the veto by stating that the drafted resolution failed to sufficiently emphasize Israel's right to self-defence.
Showing solidarity with Israel by blocking UN resolutions critical of its actions severely limits the UN's ability to take action. But as the death toll rises on both sides, unconditionally backing Israel's military campaign becomes increasingly untenable for the US. Washington is trying to appear even-handed while still preventing any Security Council criticism or constraints on Israel's offensive. The US may aim to use its influence with Israel privately to wind down the conflict. But its public stance at the UN remains firmly aligned behind Israel, limiting the prospects for Security Council action.