In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, October 27th
Turkey Sends Reinforcements to Its Forces in Syria and India Completes Successful ICBM Test
Turkey Sends Reinforcements to Its Forces in Syria
The Turkish army has sent over 200 military vehicles to reinforce its positions in Syria's Idlib province, which lies 335 kilometres northwest of Damascus. Turkish reinforcements entered through the Khirbet al-Joz crossing and are said to consist of advanced weapons, ammunition and logistics materials. The convoy of military arms headed to dozens of Turkish military points in western Idlib and the Jabal al-Zawiya plateau. The move signals a go-ahead for a long-suspended offensive against Kurdish forces, which could help President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan put pressure on the United States and Russia to rein in their support for Kurdish militias.
The Turkish Parliament extended the mandate which authorizes Turkey’s armed to continue conducting military operations in northern Iraq and Syria until October 2023. Erdoğan signalled he was planning a new campaign following attacks on Turkish soldiers in Syria by Kurdish forces, which Ankara regards as a mortal due to their connections with Kurdish insurgents in Turkey. Erdoğan said that Turkey is currently facing “terrorist threats from across the border,” and that Ankara will continue its fight against terrorism at home and abroad. The renewed military campaign against Kurdish forces could help Erdoğan consolidate domestic support at a time when soaring inflation threatens his power. However, the move risks a standoff with the US, which has covertly supported Kurdish troops in an effort to weaken the Syrian government.
Turkey has been shelling Kurdish positions ever since mortars were fired into Turkish territory earlier this month. The planned offensive is likely intended to seal a large section of Turkey’s 910-kilometer border with Syria, with Ankara aiming to capture areas south of the town of Kobaniin in order to connect areas under its control west and east of the Euphrates River. In addition, Turkish forces may target the Menagh air base near the town of Azaz, from which Kurdish forces carry out hit-and-run attacks on Turkish soldiers. While the area targeted for the offensive is largely devoid of people, it nonetheless falls within the purview of a delicate compromise which Turkey has agreed with Russia. In order to avoid any backlash from Moscow, Turkish forces may selectively withdraw from areas south of the strategic M-4 highway.
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India Completes Successful ICBM Test
India has announced that it has successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. The Indian Army's strategic forces command successfully tested the Agni-5 ICBM, which is said to be able to travel up to a distance of 5,000 kilometres. The solid-fuelled missile is reportedly capable of carrying a payload of 1.5 tonnes, and would allow India to strike targets in Pakistan and China. The successful test of an ICBM marks a turning point for India, which now joins a select group of nation-states possessing ICBM capabilities.
New Delhi began its development cycle for the Agni-5 in 2008. The Agni-5 is an ICBM which has evolved from India’s Agni-3 ballistic missile program, enhancing the intermediate-range ballistic missile with an additional third stage for enhanced range. What makes the Agni-5 different from ICBM’s fielded by other countries is the fact that the missile is launched from a sealed canister on a road-mobile launcher, thereby lowering launch time and enhancing India’s second-strike capability. India’s defence ministry said that the launch of the Agni-5 is in line with India’s policy to maintain “credible minimum deterrence,” which forms a critical part of New Delhi’s commitment to a ‘no first use' policy toward nuclear weapons.
China has been most vocal in its opposition to India’s expanded missile capabilities. In September, Beijing proposed a United Nations Security Council resolution in an effort to stymie India’s progress in acquiring the nuclear-capable inter-continental ballistic missile. But with little success in achieving any kind of restrictions on New Delhi via the United Nations, Beijing must admit defeat as India now possesses the means to strike at targets throughout China. In conducting a successful ICBM test, India follows in the footsteps of the US, UK, Russia, China, France, Israel, and North Korea, all of also possess an arsenal of such weapons.
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