In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, October 20th
Poland Triggers a Crisis for the European Union and Turkish Drone Sale to Ethiopia Risks Souring Relations with Egypt
Poland Triggers a Crisis for the European Union
The Polish Constitutional Court recently ruled that the European Court of Justice has no legal right to make decisions regarding the Polish judiciary. The ruling effectively asserts that Polish national law takes precedence over European law, and this has exacerbated the political crisis in the European Union. The Polish court’s decision has significant implications for the EU, with EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders describing the ruling in Poland as a brazen assault on the legal and political consensus that unites the continental bloc.
At a heated session of the European Parliament this week, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki squared off against European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Von der Leyen declared that the ruling “calls into question the foundations of the European Union,” and accused Warsaw of posing a “direct challenge to the unity of the European legal order.” She then laid out possible avenues to sanction Poland, including the suspension of some of Poland’s rights and funds. Morawiecki fired back, stating that a European legal structure must “first gain the consent of all European countries and societies.” What follows is uncertain, and there are already indications that European leaders will attempt to use domestic rule-of-law mechanism to block EU funds to Warsaw.
The widespread calls for cuts to how much Poland receives from the EU has incensed Polish officials. At the same time, as some float the idea of a potential Polish exit from the Union, the Polish government denies accusations that it is seeking an exit from the EU, arguing that at issue is only whether the provisions of the EU’s treaties are compatible with the Polish constitution. But the ongoing legal dilemma underscores a key tension underlying how the EU works, and the ruling has raised questions about whether provisions of the EU’s treaties give the EU Commission a say over legal matters in member states.
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Turkish Drone Sale to Ethiopia Risks Souring Relations with Egypt
Following the takeover of Mekelle — the capital of Tigray, a region in the north of Ethiopia — in June by rebel forces, Ethiopia has sought closer military ties with Turkey. Impressed by the capabilities of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones in the recent conflicts taking place in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, Addis Ababa made a request to purchase the TB2s as a low-cost weapon to tip the military balance on the ground in Tigray. But such a deal, should Turkey choose to greenlight it, could work to complicate Ankara’s relations with Egypt.
Ethiopia’s closer military ties with Ankara should be viewed within the context of the country’s two main security threats. First, Ethiopia is committed to the completion and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), which has fuelled a serious international dispute with Egypt and Sudan, and for which diplomatic efforts have so far proved futile. Second, Addis Ababa is seeking to bolster its military capabilities to suppress active rebel forces in the Tigray region. By deepening its security ties with Ankara, Addis Ababa may be able to tackle both security threats. But a Turkish posture that would embolden Ethiopia in the ongoing GERD crisis would prove challenging for Cairo.
From Cairo’s perspective, a deepening military dimension to Turkish-Ethiopian ties would be an unwelcome development. Turkey’s relationship with Egypt has been rocky for years, and the Turkish presence in Libya has become a national security issue for Cairo. Moreover, Turkey’s active involvement in other regional conflicts, coupled with its eagerness to sell weapons to conflict zones, has become a fundamental issue of concern in Cairo. If Ankara does go ahead with the sale of TB2s to Addis Ababa, Cairo will be forced to react just as it begins to normalise ties with Turkey. Details about the arms sale remain unknown as both Addis Ababa and Ankara have kept silent on the issue.
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