In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, October 25th
Germany Applies Pressure to Slovakia Amidst Political Shifts, China Upgrades Ties with Colombia to a Strategic Partnership, and other stories.
France Sells Air Defence Systems to Armenia
France has announced a deal to sell air defence systems and radar to Armenia, including Mistral missiles and GM200 radars. With Armenia's outdated military hardware, the sales aim to boost its defence capabilities against potential further Azerbaijani attacks. However, the move has drawn Baku's ire amid its military drills with Turkey. Though France stresses the defensive nature of the weapons, the deals risk escalating tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The French arms sales highlight regional realignments. Armenia seeks to counter Azerbaijani military dominance and deter further aggression. With Russia distracted, Western support is increasingly valuable. However, robust Armenian-NATO defence cooperation remains unlikely for now. Meanwhile, Turkey fully backs its ally Azerbaijan. As peace talks stall, military build-ups raise risk. While rebalancing is inevitable, restraint and diplomacy will be essential to avoid a revival in warfare between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
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Revived Thai Land Bridge Ambitions Face Hurdles
Thailand's government is reviving an idea for a Thai land bridge across the Isthmus of Kra to spur growth, pitching the $28 billion rail and road link between the Indian and Pacific oceans to China. The project would shorten shipping routes and position Thailand as a strategic trade hub. But previous plans stalled amid corruption allegations and financing difficulties.
While touting economic benefits, details remain vague. Relying heavily on Chinese investment risks geopolitical entanglements if Thailand becomes over-dependent. The land bridge ambitions encapsulate Thailand's development challenges. Big infrastructure visions are tempting but require careful study. Project costs, debt implications and social-environmental consequences will need addressing. Over-relying on any one partner like China brings strategic risks should debt or influence become excessive. Thailand's economy needs dynamism, but traditional pragmatism should guide sustainable growth.
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Germany Applies Pressure to Slovakia Amidst Political Shifts
In the wake of Slovakia's recent parliamentary elections, a significant shift in the country's political landscape has raised concerns in Germany. The incoming government, led by Prime Minister Robert Fico, plans to discontinue the policy of economic liberalism and is indicating a possible shift towards Russia. Fico's declaration that his foreign minister will “no longer speak for foreign interests,” particularly regarding relations with Russia, has sparked alarm in Berlin.
The implications of Slovakia's policy shift are manifold. Germany and other EU nations are concerned about the direction Slovakia is taking, particularly its warming relations with Russia. The suspension of Slovakia's parties from the PES, in which the German SPD has a significant role, signifies a diplomatic rift within the EU. Additionally, Slovakia's economic importance, particularly in the automotive industry, makes it challenging for Germany to apply pressure. The country is one of the world's top car producers per capita and is integral to the German export market. Despite concerns and strained relations, the German-Slovak ties remain a complex web of interdependence.
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Bulgaria and Romania's Schengen Bid
Bulgaria and Romania are actively pursuing membership in the European Union's passport-free Schengen Area. However, both countries have encountered resistance from Austria and the Netherlands, who have utilized their veto power to block their accession. Austria and the Netherlands argue that Bulgaria and Romania have not done enough to control irregular migration. While the European Commission, European Parliament, and various EU member states support Bulgaria and Romania's entry, it remains unlikely for the vetoes to be lifted anytime soon.
Schengen membership promises economic benefits, including enhanced trade, tourism, and business travel. Prolonged negotiations could postpone these advantages for Bulgaria and Romania. Furthermore, the delay might fuel anti-EU sentiments in countries where the political establishment generally supports the EU, potentially impacting the 2024 European Parliament elections as nationalist parties gain traction. This diplomatic stand-off has an unexpected intersection with a Black Sea gas project, which could bolster Europe's gas supply. Austrian energy company OMV's legal action against Romania over gas output redistribution in emergencies has tied the fate of this law to Austria's Schengen veto. Consequently, this diplomatic dispute has broader implications, not only for Schengen expansion but also for Europe's energy security landscape in the years ahead.
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Germany and France Reach Compromise on Nuclear Power
After a prolonged period of disagreement, France and Germany have finally struck a deal regarding electricity markets, particularly in the context of nuclear power. The agreement centres around a solution that has long been employed in the UK: the contract for differences (CfD). This resolution represents a development in the ongoing debate about nuclear power within the European Union, particularly given the prominence of France, which heavily relies on nuclear energy generated by the state-owned EDF.
The essence of the issue lies in the need for substantial capital investments in France's existing nuclear power plants and the cost overruns associated with constructing new facilities. France has sought to subsidize its nuclear program to address these concerns, which raised objections from other EU members, most notably Germany. The objections were rooted in the EU's principles of energy market competition and avoiding state subsidies. The Germany-France deal is significant in its recognition that nuclear power is not solely a commercial matter but a political one. It acknowledges that government intervention and financial support are essential for the expansion and stability of nuclear power, clarifying the role of the state in such a strategic energy sector.
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China Upgrades Ties with Colombia to a Strategic Partnership
China has upgraded ties with Colombia to a strategic partnership, deepening engagement with a key US regional ally. During President Petro's visit, the two signed cooperation deals and China pledged to import more Colombian goods amid trade deficits. Colombia is the latest South American nation elevating relations with Beijing as China extends its influence in the region. Closer China-Colombia ties hold strategic value, but will raise concerns in Washington.
China's advancing inroads into South America highlight shifting power dynamics. As the US was focused elsewhere, Beijing has filled voids through trade and investment. But growing Chinese sway in the US's neighbourhood is already spurring countermeasures, as Washington pushes back against China's trade ties with its allies. Colombia also risks over-reliance on China amid domestic development needs. Navigating between the two powers will define the latitude of middle powers like Colombia in a contested geopolitical landscape.