In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, October 11th
France Begins Withdrawal from Niger, QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies Forge Long-Term LNG Agreements, and other stories.
France Begins Withdrawal from Niger
French troops have begun withdrawing from their bases in Niger after the country's new military rulers demanded their departure following July's coup. Convoy movements of French soldiers out of the country have started, with departures by land and air. Around 1,500 French troops were based in Niger, where they have assisted in counterterrorism efforts against ISIS and al-Qaeda linked groups. The withdrawal comes after the United States has belatedly issued a formal designation of a coup, suspending assistance to Niger as a result.
The French exit highlights the rapid deterioration of Western leverage in West Africa following multiple coups. Though US counter-terrorism operations in Niger continue, suspensions of aid may restrict external influence. It is notable that the US plans to maintain its troop presence despite curtailing other assistance. This raises questions about whether the US sees potential opportunities to gain influence given Niger's sizable uranium reserves. However, it's premature to draw firm conclusions. Real clout still depends on engagement with Niger's people, not just military might. Regardless, the regional bodies meant to promote democracy and accountability have proven ineffective so far.
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China Enters Race to Build Reusable Space Rocket
China is quietly developing its own reusable super heavy rocket - the Long March 9. Set for an initial launch in 2030, the rocket aims to dramatically lower launch costs to compete with SpaceX. It would enable China's ambitions like lunar mining, Mars missions, and space solar power. Beijing sees the rocket as critical to dominating space access and utilization. China has proven able to deliver on long-term technological goals despite scepticism.
The race for reusable mega rockets carries geopolitical implications. Affordable, heavy-lift capacity would be a game changer economically and militarily. China views space dominance as key to its comprehensive national power. With parallel rocket programs, the US and China may end up contesting spheres of influence in space. But realizing these advanced systems remains incredibly difficult. Technical hurdles and delays are likely despite national prioritization. Maintaining cooperation and preventing space militarization remains crucial amidst a risky technology race.
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Potential for Hezbollah Escalation from Lebanon
As Israel prepares a likely ground offensive in Gaza, the question is whether Hezbollah will also escalate from neighbouring Lebanon. So far, Hezbollah has only offered rhetorical backing for Hamas while avoiding a major engagement. But an Israeli quagmire in Gaza could shift its calculus. Hezbollah may see weakness to exploit or feel pressure to intervene if casualties mount.
Hezbollah intervention would have profound consequences, rapidly expanding the conflict. Its arsenal could overwhelm northern Israel while Israel bombs Lebanon. Iran could activate regional proxies, forcing US involvement. For Israel, avoiding this scenario demands proactive deterrence like shows of force, while diplomacy persuades Hezbollah to stay uninvolved. But political stagnation raises tensions along Israel's northern border over time. Without addressing core disputes, this precarious fault line will persist, endangering wider conflagration.
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The Implications of Azerbaijan's Victory for Iran
Azerbaijan's decisive victory over Armenia in their recent conflict has reshaped dynamics in the South Caucasus region, putting Iran on alert. Azerbaijan's gain of contested Nagorno-Karabakh and plans for a land corridor through Armenia challenge Iranian interests. Tehran risks losing sway and transport links to Armenia. Turkey and Israel's backing of Baku expands their foothold, as Russia's role recedes.
Despite ethnic and religious ties, Azerbaijan's rise antagonizes nationalist sentiment in Iran, while the shifting geopolitical landscape compels Iran to recalibrate its regional policies. Its options to respond directly are limited without Russian support. While offering rhetorical backing for Armenia, Iran must tread carefully to avoid alienating ascendant Azerbaijan. The complex interplay of powers surround Iran also narrows its room for manoeuvre. As new transport routes develop, Iran risks strategic marginalization. Unless Tehran can adapt its approach to emerging alignments, it faces diminished influence in its own backyard.
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US Grants Waiver to Samsung and SK Hynix for Chip Supply to China
The United States has granted South Korean chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix a waiver allowing them to supply advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment to factories in China without restrictions. It aims to keep a key Asian ally aligned amid a wider US-China tech war. Beijing has reacted warily to the calibrated move, seeing it as limited relief rather than any policy reversal. The carve-out reduces uncertainty for major players while maintaining overall pressure on China's chip ambitions.
The delicate chip diplomacy reveals attempts to balance competing interests. The US wants to curb China's tech rise but avoid alienating key allies in the region. South Korea walks its own tightrope between superpowers. Beijing sees ulterior motives in selective exemptions aimed at advantaging foreign firms over domestic ones. Such intricacies will persist as long as chip supply chains remain globalized, while geopolitics dictate further fragmentation lies ahead. There are no easy options for nations navigating the tech divide. Flexible arrangements may become the norm absent a return to freer markets and cooperation.
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QatarEnergy and TotalEnergies Forge Long-Term LNG Agreements
QatarEnergy and France's TotalEnergies signed two long-term agreements for Qatar to supply up to 3.5 million tons of LNG annually to France for 27 years starting in 2026. The gas will ship to the Fos Cavaou terminal in southern France. It augments Qatar's LNG exports to France as Europe seeks stable energy supplies after the Ukraine war. Qatar is boosting exports through its North Field expansion, the world's largest LNG project.
The deals with TotalEnergies, a partner in the expansion, underscore Qatar's efforts to cement its dominance in global LNG. The agreements demonstrate Qatar's central role in meeting surging European demand for reliable LNG. Its expansion investments and fleet of mega-carriers give it flexibility to divert cargoes amid volatile conditions. Qatar accounts for over 30% of existing global LNG trade. With new projects coming online, its export capacity looks set to increase further. That consolidates its status as the premier LNG supplier globally. Qatar's emergence as an indispensable energy partner confers significant geopolitical influence as well. Its ties with major customers like Europe and Asia are only set to deepen.