In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, September 6th
Turkish President Expresses Support for Syrian Arab Tribes, EU's Ukraine Grain Deal Nears Expiry, and other stories.
Turkish President Expresses Support for Syrian Arab Tribes
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed support for Arab tribes involved in violent clashes with a key United States’ ally in Syria. Erdogan stated that the Arab tribes in Deir Ezzor were engaged in a “principled struggle for dignity.” His comments reflect Turkey’s expanding efforts to dismantle the Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (AANES), which operates outside the Syrian government’s control with US military protection.
Erdogan argues that the AANES poses a threat to Turkey’s national security due to its links with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The situation in Deir Ezzor has escalated with the recent detention of Deir Ezzor Military Council Chief Ahmed al-Khbeil, leading to fighting between his supporters and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). The clashes in Deir Ezzor reveal the deep-seated divisions among local Arab tribes and their uneasy relationship with the Kurdish-led administration. The US has materially and financially supported the SDF in the Syrian Civil War, but this latest development indicates that tribal leaders may prefer a direct relationship with the US, potentially seeking greater autonomy and control over their resources.
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EU's Ukraine Grain Deal Nears Expiry
A deal allowing Ukrainian agricultural exports through the Black Sea expires September 15, diverting more trade through EU border states. This has caused backups and lower prices in those markets. The EU approved measures to allow transit of 4 key crops through 5 border nations until mid-September, but those countries want an extension.
Russia's blockade of Ukraine's seaborne trade has created economic and political headaches for the EU. Extending transit rules could aid Ukraine and food-insecure nations, but risks backlash from EU farmers. The EU is weighing options like financial aid to Ukraine, improving border facilities, and shifting inspections to Baltic ports. But appeasing all sides will be difficult. Russia seems focused on blocking Ukraine's trade, despite talks to renew the Black Sea deal.
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Latin America’s Deepening Ties with China Alter Regional Dynamics
China is rapidly expanding ties with major Latin American nations like Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela across economic, political, and cultural spheres. This signals a seismic shift as Latin America pivots away from traditional Western alliances. Proposed expansion of the BRICS bloc to include Argentina magnifies the implications.
China's growing Latin American foothold challenges longstanding US regional influence. While offering economic benefits, Washington argues that an overdependence on China raises sovereignty issues. US officials fear that a BRICS expansion could further increase China's leverage, increasing pressure on countries i the region and forcing deft diplomacy by Latin states to balance partnerships. Managing this complex triangle between China, Latin America, and the West will shape 21st century geopolitics. The outcome hinges on both pragmatic self-interest and nuanced relationship-building.
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Potential Oil Wealth Poses Risks and Rewards for Senegal
Senegal is on the verge of an energy boom after discovering large offshore oil and gas reserves. This has attracted interest from Europe and China as a potential alternative to Russian energy exports. However, Senegal is also facing political turmoil ahead of next year's election. With billions in resource revenues expected soon, there are signs that the government may use the funds to further consolidate power.
Senegal stands at a pivotal moment that will shape its political future. The resource revenues could lift many out of poverty if managed appropriately. However, the lack of political opposition and vague government fund structure raise worries the windfall may be misused. The international community has incentive to encourage proper oversight given Senegal's potential role countering Russian influence. Supporting an accountable sovereign wealth fund like Norway's could deter corruption and autocracy. How Senegal manages its newfound oil and gas wealth will have significant implications both domestically and abroad.
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Hydrogen Exports Insufficient to Resolve North Africa's Crises
Countries along the Southern Rim of the Mediterranean like Algeria, Egypt, and Mauritania have made major new fossil fuel discoveries. With the energy transition underway, there is enthusiasm among some leaders and investors to potentially direct billions toward developing hydrogen exports to Europe as a clean energy source. However, this risks distracting from pressing domestic crises driving migration northward.
Despite recent cooperation with Europe on energy security, long-standing issues like high unemployment, lack of economic opportunity, and perceptions of corruption remain unresolved for many citizens in the region. While hydrogen development presents potential economic opportunities, without proper governance it could also reinforce rent-seeking behaviour and inequality. Export revenue alone cannot be expected to resolve poor governance and social distrust. Increased regional cooperation could help create a more attractive investment climate. With balanced policies, hydrogen exports could support development, but they do not inherently address the domestic conditions driving migration.
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New Zealand Cultivating Positive Gulf Ties
New Zealand Trade Minister Damien O'Connor recently visited Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to discuss trade deals and closer economic ties. O'Connor met with officials from the Gulf Cooperation Council to restart free trade negotiations that began in 2009 but were never finalized. He also announced that New Zealand would begin talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with the UAE. These trade initiatives come as New Zealand prepares for elections in October and aims to deepen engagement with important emerging markets beyond Asia.
O'Connor's visit signals New Zealand's renewed interest in strengthening economic and diplomatic links with Gulf states. This outreach comes as Saudi Arabia and the UAE prepare to join the BRICS grouping of major emerging economies. It also aligns with the UAE's more open foreign policy under its current leadership. For New Zealand, closer Gulf ties could boost exports and provide a gateway to the region, similar to Singapore's role in Southeast Asia. Navigating these complex relationships will require persistent diplomatic efforts, beyond focusing solely on trade deals. O'Connor's trip also highlights the geopolitical significance of the Gulf for New Zealand's future.