In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, September 13
Massive Lithium Reserves Discovered in the US, Egypt's Central Role in Shifting Global Energy Landscape, and other stories.
Massive Lithium Reserves Discovered in the US
A new study suggests a volcanic crater on the Nevada-Oregon border called the McDermitt Caldera may contain 20-40 million metric tons of lithium. This could be nearly double the size of Bolivia's total lithium reserves, which are the world's largest. The lithium is found in clay deposits around 180 metres deep inside the volcanic crater. While potentially significant, extracting lithium from clay has not been done commercially before.
The discovery comes as lithium prices have crashed from their peak in 2022, but demand is still predicted to grow long-term with the EV revolution. Some companies like Lithium Americas are already looking to mine the Nevada deposit. However, there are environmental concerns from local tribes about mining in the area. While promising, it remains to be seen if the lithium can be viably extracted. But the deposit could boost US lithium reserves and shift market dynamics if commercial production can succeed.
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Algeria's Diplomatic Position on Niger's Coup Crisis
The military coup that unfolded in Niger has sent shockwaves through the region, leaving a trail of instability and uncertainty in its wake. France and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have taken a stern stance, threatening potential military intervention to counter the junta's hold on power. In stark contrast, neighbouring Algeria has vehemently opposed any foreign military action, citing concerns about potential spillover effects and advocating for a diplomatic resolution.
Algeria's proposal for a six-month transition period to restore civilian rule in Niger stands in stark contrast to the junta's call for a three-year transition, a proposal that has been firmly rejected by ECOWAS. At the heart of Algeria's stance is a commitment to preventing regional chaos while safeguarding principles of sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations. However, Algeria's influence in the matter is constrained, leaving it with limited leverage. This pragmatic approach may serve as a means to mitigate the crisis while avoiding overt confrontation. As an influential regional player, Algeria's ability to navigate the complex web of competing interests and find a diplomatic solution will play a pivotal role in shaping Niger's path forward.
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Egypt Takes the Lead in African Satellite Development
In a significant milestone, Egypt has emerged as the first African nation capable of assembling and testing satellites, marking a transformative moment for its space ambitions. This achievement follows the delivery of two prototype satellites for the MisrSat II project, generously funded by China. Not only does this development empower Egypt to localize its satellite industry, but it also solidifies its position as a space leader within Africa.
The satellites, designed for remote sensing, are poised to play a pivotal role in supporting Egypt's development goals, offering critical data for various sectors. China has notably celebrated this collaboration as a noteworthy accomplishment within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative, underlining the importance of international space cooperation. Furthermore, this progress underscores China's comprehensive space strategy, characterized by partnerships with developing nations. By providing satellite capabilities and supporting infrastructure, China strategically advances its interests in Africa and beyond. As space activities become increasingly competitive and contested, collaborations on satellite technology enhance China's soft power and bolster its strategic foothold in emerging markets.
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Growing Military Partnership Between North Korea and Russia
North Korea and Russia have bee n forging closer military ties, marking a significant shift in their relationship. The meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn attention to this growing alignment. Notably, there are indications of arms deals between the two nations, with North Korea reportedly providing munitions to support Russia's ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Simultaneously, Russia has been offering diplomatic support to North Korea, particularly in defending its missile tests and pledging expanded cooperation.
This partnership builds upon a historical backdrop of military collaboration between the two countries, dating back to the Soviet era, which has evolved and intensified in recent times. Deeper ties between North Korea and Russia carries implications both in Europe and Asia. One of the areas of collaboration is the potential sharing of advanced missile technology between Russia and North Korea, which could significantly accelerate North Korea's missile and nuclear programs. This, in turn, could embolden the adoption of more coercive strategies, including the lethal use of force, leveraging their growing capabilities.
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Central America's Migration Crisis
Unprecedented migration across Central America, driven by economic hardship and insecurity, is overwhelming governments in the region. The Darien Gap between Panama and Colombia has seen a record 330,000 migrant crossings in 2023. Migrant encampments are surging, with states like Costa Rica declaring emergencies due to overcrowding. The situation in Honduras and Mexico is similarly strained. The surge in migration is not only overwhelming government resources, but also creating opportunities for criminal organizations.
As governments struggle to manage the influx of migrants, criminal groups, including major transnational organizations, are exploiting the situation. They transport migrants through dangerous routes and across borders, often using unsafe means, posing significant security risks. This increase in criminal activities could disrupt regional supply chains, as safety concerns among cargo drivers have already been raised. Furthermore, the rise in migration may lead to diplomatic tensions between countries in the region, as some governments may resist cooperation efforts. As local frustration with growing migrant encampments deepens, protests against migrants become more likely, potentially fuelling the popularity of anti-immigration political figures in the region.
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Egypt's Central Role in Shifting Global Energy Landscape
Since Russia's military incursion into Ukraine in February 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) has emerged as a critical energy resource for the U.S. and its European allies, providing an alternative to Russian gas supplies. Companies like Chevron, BP, Shell, and Italy's Eni have played a leading role in securing a substantial supply of gas from new sources, significantly benefiting from this strategic shift.
This shift towards LNG has propelled Egypt into a central position within the evolving global oil and gas market order. Egypt's significance stems from multiple factors. Firstly, it possesses substantial gas reserves, solidifying its status as a pivotal gas producer in Africa. Secondly, Egypt's control over key global shipping routes, underscores its influence over the transit of a significant portion of the world's oil and LNG. Thirdly, China's interest in Egypt is intricately tied to its strategic position as a conduit from the Bab al-Mandab Strait to the Mediterranean, an increasingly critical trade route. Lastly, Egypt's historical and political sway in the Arab world positions it as an attractive partner for the U.S. and its allies, particularly in countering the influence of Russia and China. With major energy players like BP, Chevron, and Shell making substantial investments in Egypt's energy sector, the nation's role in the global energy landscape is solidifying.