In Geopolitics Today: Wednesday, September 14th
A Critical Time in the Tech Race between China and the United States, Tigray Rebels Accept African Union Involvement in Ethiopian Peace Deal, and other stories.
A Critical Time in the Tech Race between China and the United States
A report published by a private US-based working group has identified the years between 2025 and 2030 to be of critical importance in determining the dominant power in advanced AI technologies. According to its findings, economic and technological competition will dramatically increase between the United States and China, with the most capable AI power likely to enjoy a dominant position heading into 2050.
The “Mid-Decade Challenges to National Competitiveness” report was published by the Special Competitive Studies Project, a private group led by Eric Schmidt that seeks to build on the work completed by an AI commission mandated by the US Congress. The report emphasized the likelihood of great power conflict in the years ahead, particularly involving both Russia and China. The report’s findings suggest that combat in traditional domains will still play a significant role in this geopolitical rivalry, yet warfare will also increasingly be waged with and against industrial and financial power by pitting technological ecosystems against each other.
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Ukraine Set to Receive Micro-drone Systems from Norway and the UK
The United Kingdom and Norway are sending Ukraine a hundred Black Hornet PD-100 micro-drone systems. The PD-100 is a unique Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) because it is a helicopter-type UAV that is small and quiet enough to remain covert. The armed forces of the UK and Norway already use the PD-100, and the system has been adapted by US soldiers as well.
Black Hornet is a tiny (10x2.5 cm) and lightweight (16 g) helicopter UAV. The system was first used by UK commandos in Afghanistan, where it was noticed by US SOCOM forces and later utilized by other NATO special operations forces. Since the PD-100 Black Hornet is electrically powered and small, it’s both silent and invisible in the battlespace. The Black Hornet’s grey colour scheme makes it very hard to visually detect, and the system provides troops improved situational awareness on the battlefield with a range of 1500 metres.
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Tigray Rebels Accept African Union Involvement in Ethiopian Peace Deal
Hopes for peace in Ethiopia have risen after the country’s Tigray rebels agree to take part in peace talks led by the African Union (AU). The announcement was made after a number of international actors sought to facilitate dialogue between the warring sides after fighting flared in August for the first time in several months.
Until recently, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) opposed the role of the AU in any peace deal. The TPLF leaders previously proposed a truce that called for the withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Ethiopia, and for a full Ethiopian withdrawal from western Tigray. The involvement of the AU promises to bring a comprehensive attempt at fostering a long-term peace deal between the warring parties. The Ethiopian government has previously suggested the AU brokers any peace deal, and that Addis Ababa was prepared to conduct unconditional talks at any time.
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World Turns to Uranium as States Restart Nuclear Reactors
The Japanese government has expressed an interest in restarting more nuclear power plants and making major investments in nuclear technologies. Tokyo now wants to restart more nuclear power plants that were idled after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, and is interested in expanding investments in next-generation nuclear power plants.
The shift by the Japanese government is part of a global trend toward nuclear power in large part caused by the rising costs of energy. More broadly, Japan’s decision to reverse the closure of its nuclear power plants signals a world more receptive to nuclear power, with uranium expected to increase in value as more nuclear power plants are expected to come online in the years ahead. At a time when many states are seeking to decarbonize their power grids, nuclear may come to be accepted as a stable source of clean energy for countries that enjoy relative stability.