After a couple of months of being lazy and busy and everything in-between, I’ve been thinking about how to restructure this newsletter in a way that gets stories to you on a more consistent basis. I’d still like to continue writing more in-depth articles, but they often end up sitting in the drafts section for far too long, or something else comes along to grab my interest, resulting in nothing for you to read. The world moves very fast after all…
Under this new format, I’ll be looking to deliver a brief summary of various stories relating to geopolitics in your inbox every Sunday. While not all are fixated on the intersection between politics and geography, all stories discuss issues with geopolitical implications. So without any further delay, I hope you enjoy reading about what happened in geopolitics this week!
Monday
Russia Seeks Expansion of Canal Networks
At present, the only waterway linking the Caspian Sea and the global ocean is the Volga–Don Canal, an aging structure with numerous locks and a low tonnage capacity because of the shallowness of many parts. But the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs has begun pushing for the canal to be widened, deepened, and provided with more water so that these limitations can be lifted.1
Despite its potential costs, this project has significant support in the Russian government primarily because it would provide a considerable boost to Russia’s ability to export raw materials to foreign markets. Two proposals for expanding the Volga–Don Canal are now being considered, with both certain to carry a significant cost in both time and treasure.
At the same time, Moscow has expressed an interest in undertaking other significant canal projects. One such project is the proposed joint Russian-Iranian canal between the Caspian and the Indian Ocean. Given that Moscow and Tehran are working together to build a north-south transit path and have road and railway projects moving forward to support it, the idea of a canal is gaining traction.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey to Establish a New Military Base in Iraq
Turkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu announced last Friday that Turkey will establish a military base in Metina, a mountainous area close to the Turkish border in Iraqi Kurdistan, to surveil the broader region.2 Speaking to members of the ruling party’s executive board, Soylu said that “Metina is an important region. Just as we did in Syria, we will build a base here and monitor the region. This area is a route to Qandil; we will control this route.”
Soylu’s statement came at a time when Turkish special forces, backed by F-16 fighter jets, helicopter gunships and drones, continued with its offensive against PKK targets launched on April 23 in Metina and the neighboring Avashin and Basyan regions. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the offensive, dubbed “Operation Claw Lightning,” was designed to “completely end the presence of the terror threat […] along our southern border.”
On May 3, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry summoned the chief Turkish diplomat to deliver him “a note of protest” for “violations of Iraqi sovereignty” which occurred with the May 1 visit of the Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar in a new Turkish military base just installed in Iraqi Kurdistan. The Turkish intention appears to be a “a pre-emptive strategy” whereby Turkish forces are airdropped to prevent the PKK from establishing new footholds.
Read more about this story here.
Tuesday
The Taliban Launches Spring Offensive
The May 1st deadline for a withdrawal of NATO forces which was agreed between the Trump adminisatrion and the Taliban has passed with US and allied forces still present in Afghanistan. While the Biden administration has set a new withdrawal date of September 11th, the Taliban has reacted to this missed deadline by launching a major spring offensive across the country.
Attaullah Afghan, the head of Helmand's provincial council, said the Taliban had launched their multi-pronged offensive on Monday, attacking checkpoints around the outskirts of Lashkar Gah, and overwhelming some of them in the process. Afghan security forces responded by launching air strikes and deploying elite commando forces to the area.3
As part of the withdrawal, U.S. forces handed over a military base in Helmand to Afghan government troops just days before the offensive, and the Taliban attacks seem to be most intense in this province. While the Afghan army is equipped with helicopters and light bombers capable of reinforcing its positions, the maintenance for many of these is done by contractors who are likely to leave together with the NATO mission, putting the local Afghan security forces in an unenviable position going forward.
Read more about this story here.
A Russia-China Convergence is no Longer a Myth
The Biden administration has emphasized that China is its number one foreign policy priority. The US president identified Beijing as the “most serious competitor” and has chosen to stress issues relating to China’s economic abuses, human rights violations, and military capabilities as a threat U.S. interests and values.4 At the same time, the administration has downgraded Russia to a second-tier concern. But with China and Russia deepening their strategic partnership, Washington can no longer ignore the reality of a convergence in Russian and Chinese interests, and must take this into account when formulating a coherent policy.
Russia, for its part, has pursued ties by selling sophisticated weaponry to the Chinese military. Russian-made systems bolster China’s air defense, antiship, and submarine capabilities, which altogether serve to reinforce China’s posture against the United States in the Indo-Pacific. Russia and China have also conducted joint military exercises of increasing frequency and complexity. Such activities signal to other countries that Beijing and Moscow are willing to challenge U.S. dominance. Moreover, the two states have developed technological cooperation that might eventually allow them to innovate faster together than the United States can on its own.
While both China and Russia have stopped short of establishing a formal military alliance, the ever-deepening partnership is sure to pose challenges to US policymakers.
Read more about this story here.
Wednesday
A Conflict of Ideas at the Atlantic Council
In a public spat at a prominent Washington, D.C. think tank, almost two dozen employees and fellows at the Atlantic Council have issued a statement condemning two of their colleagues for writing what they see as a pro-Russia article on the think tank’s website.
The article, written by staffers Emma Ashford and Mathew Burrows, argues that the U.S. should distance itself from purely human rights-based apprach to Russia, noting that “democratization in Russia would not necessarily be good for US foreign policy interests.” In addition, the article poses some uncomfortable questions about the role of the United States following the Cold War, and goes on to advocate for a policy of restraint — a narrowing of US policy goals to more closely adhere to core US interests rather than human rights concerns.5
Over twenty staffers at the Atlantic Council signed their names to a brief disassociating themselves from the publication, stating their fundamental disagreement with the arguments presented as well as the values espoused.
Read more about this story here.
Will Turkey Build Its Own Stealth Fighter?
Though Turkey was initially a party to the American-led F-35 program, Ankara scuttled plans for the Turkish Air Force to eventually field the fighter by purchasing the Russian-made S-400 air defense system. American officials pushed hard against the purchase, and ultimately booted Turkey from the F-35 program over concerns that data about the advanced 5th generation fighter could be gathered and relayed to Russia via the S-400.
While losing access to the advanced F-35 was a disappointment to Turkey, Ankara believes it can build its own indigenous stealth fighter, the TF-X.
The TF-X exists on paper and mockups only. Images from the 2019 Paris Air Show revealed a twin-engine design with a number of radar-mitigating stealth characteristics. Information and images about the TF-X on the Turkish Aerospace Industries website reveal a tail assembly not dissimilar to the F-22, as well as a chined nose, and an internal weapons bay.6
Initially, Turkey had envisioned flying the TF-X alongside the F-35, though no longer having access to the American-designed fighter puts new pressure on the Turkish fighter project.
Read more about this story here.
Thursday
Montenegro Poses Tough Questions for Europe
Montenegrin Deputy Prime Minister Dritan Abazovic has sparked an intense debate in the EU. Abazovic recently suggested to the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs that the European Union should embark on a rescue mission to refinance Montenegro’s $1 billion debt to the Export-Import Bank of China – a debt that the country incurred to pay for a highway, and that comes due in July this year. While Abazovic’s intervention came across as a spontaneous gaffe, it was widely interpreted as a signal that Montenegro cannot repay the loan, shaking investors’ confidence and leading to a sharp decline in the value of Montenegrin government bonds.7
The incident prompted a number of geopolitical arguments on why the EU needs to step in to counter China’s growing presence in Montenegro and prevent another port in a NATO country from transferring to Chinese ownership. Speculation that China will gain control over the Port of Bar, on the Adriatic Sea, emerged after it was reported that Montenegrin land was the collateral of the loan. Chinese state-owned company COSCO Shipping Lines already owns a majority stake in the Greek port of Piraeus; 47 per cent of the Italian port of Genoa; and 35 per cent of the Dutch port of Rotterdam. The months ahead will be critical as these concerns channel into a wider debate about Europe’s role in the intesifying competition between the United States and China.
Read more about this story here.
China Reveals Plans to Revive Airfield in Kiribati
China has drawn up plans to upgrade a disused airstrip as well as a bridge on one of Kiribati’s remote islands about 3,000km southwest of Hawaii, in a bid to revive a site that hosted military aircraft during World War Two. The plans involve construction projects on the tiny island of Kanton, a coral atoll strategically located between Asia and the Americas.
Like any small nation nation stuck between behemoths, the security and survival of Kiribati lies in the hands of outside powers, and as such it cannot realistically maintain an independent foreign policy. Thus it plays along with whatever power is best positioned to advance its interests. In the context of the Pacific, this is best exemplified by Kiribati’s flip-flopping on the issue of Taiwan. Kiribati recognized Beijing from 1980 up until 2003, when it switched ties to Taiwan, and then switched again to recognition of Beijing’s sovereigny over Taiwan in 2019.8
While plans on the construction projects remain secret, the move is sure to cause discomfort in US and Australian foreign policy circles, which will view the developments as a dangerous encroachment of Chinese influence in the heart of the Pacific.
Read more about this story here.
Friday
Standoff in the English Channel
An unusual story developed on Friday when French fishermen threatened to blockade Jersey and France threaned to cut off electricity as Paris accused London of breaching its Brexit agreement by limiting fishing around Jersey. The UK responded with its own claims that the situation is about the failure to provide data from the French fishing vessels.
Although crews on the French vessels were seen setting off flares after they arrived off the Jersey coast, the protest remained peaceful — apart from one instance of a UK boat being rammed by a French vessel. The UK's environment and food secretary George Eustice said the row was about 17 French fishing vessels that have failed to provide the data needed for Jersey to grant them a licence to fish in its waters. The demands set out where ships could and could not go, how long fishermen can spend at sea, and what machinery they can use, she added.
In response to French threats, UK has sent two Royal Navy ships "as a precaution" to deter any French action. The presence of the HMS Severn to “monitor” the protest prompted France to send two of its own police boats, the Athos and the Themis. At the time of writing (Saturday evening), the situation had been deescalated and the French fishing boats have left the area, but two Royal Navy vessels remain nearby on alert.
Read more about this story here.
Scottish Parliament Elections
Elections were held in England, Scotland and Wales on Thursday with results coming in throughout Friday and Saturday. Final results of Thursday's election showed the SNP winning 64 of the 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament and the result extends the party's dominance of Scottish politics since it first won power in 2007. By winning its fourth straight parliamentary election, the SNP insisted it will push on with another referendum on Scotland's independence from the United Kindgom, even though it failed by one seat to secure a majority.
Other results from elections across the U.K. were confirmed on Saturday as well, including the Labour Party's victory in the Welsh parliamentary election and a resounding success for the Conservative Party in England.
But the election with the most significant implications was the Scottish election, as the pro-independence majority (SNP + Greens) could pave the way for another indepedence bid in the near-term. While Scotland's devolved government has power over education and health, economic and security matters remain firmly within the orbit of the British government in London. Only time will tell how this constitutional crisis will play out.
Read more about this story here.