In Geopolitics This Week
The Impact of AUKUS on Australia’s Pacific Relations, Cuba Accuses the US of Destabilisation Efforts, The Taliban’s Struggle for International Recognition, and other stories.
Monday, November 8th
Algeria's Dispute with Morocco Worsens European Energy Insecurity
The current state of affairs in North Africa could leave Europe with worrying levels of energy for the coming winter. On top of the already low European natural gas supplies resulting from reduced flows from Russia through the Yamal pipeline, supplies are also threated from North Africa as relations between Morocco and Algeria deteriorate. The European energy market is being confronted by implications resulting from the ongoing political crisis between the two countries, and the crisis promises to negatively impact gas supplies to Europe via the Iberian Peninsula.
A political crisis between Algeria and Morocco has intensified in recent months. At the centre of the disagreement has been an ongoing dispute over the Western Sahara, a region that only the United States recognises as part of Morocco. While Morocco has for years exerted control over the Western Sahara, a regional rebel movement backed by Algeria remains a thorn in Rabat’s side. Fearful of Rabat’s growing political influence and close ties to Israel, Algeria chose to cut diplomatic ties with Morocco in August this year. With relations at an all-time low, and with both parties on opposite sides of a protracted military conflict in the Western Sahara, the politics of energy are now being utilised by Algiers to achieve its goals.
Algiers has decided to shut down energy supplies transiting Morocco after Rabat refused to make investments in the Maghreb-Europe gas export pipeline while choosing to siphon part of the gas transiting its territory as payment for transfer rights. But the effects of the decision will be felt most by Europe, and particularly Spain, which uses Algerian natural gas transiting via the Maghreb-Europe pipeline for heating, industry, and power-generation purposes at home. The Spanish Minister of Energy reported that the country has enough natural gas reserves to last for roughly 43 days of consumption. However, Algeria has offered to send higher volumes to Spain if requested, which, given the soaring price of natural gas, could come at a significant cost to the Spanish treasury. Algeria exports roughly 130 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year, making the country Africa’s largest gas exporter.
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The Impact of AUKUS on Australia’s Pacific Relations
The September announcement of the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom has caused some discomfort to Australia’s partners in the Pacific. While Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison proclaimed the agreement marked a milestone between the “oldest and most trusted of friends,” regional partners to Australia in the Pacific were less enthusiastic. Canberra failed to consult its Pacific neighbours about the pact until after the deal became public, and so has caught them by surprise, leaving some feeling side-lined.
While some, such as Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister, were less hostile when stressing that his country only has issues with AUKUS pact if “such activities bring disharmony in the region.” Others were more direct, such as the leader of the opposition in Vanuatu, who expressed disappointment and fear for the future of the region following the AUKUS announcement. The Prime Minister of the Solomon Islands was starker in his language, stating that his government does not support “any form of militarisation” which could “threaten regional and international peace and stability.” The only Pacific nation to welcome the news was Micronesia, a country under the US defence umbrella, whose President stated that the AUKUS pact will “make the region safer.”
Leaders of island nations in the Pacific have long been concerned about the growing strategic competition in the region, and remain fearful of being forced to make a difficult choice between China and AUKUS members. But as Australia continues to align more closely with the United States, so too its commitments become increasingly tied to those of Washington. And in a region which has maintained a consistent policy advocating for a nuclear-free Pacific, the arrival of US-built nuclear-powered submarines will cause deep discomfort, particularly as the region’s history is tied to numerous nuclear tests conducted by the United States. That none of the Pacific leaders were consulted by Australia regarding AUKUS will certainly cause concern, something the government in Canberra is likely to try to mitigate via a regional outreach campaign following the deal.
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Tuesday, November 9th
Taiwan’s Increasingly Important Role in the US Defence Industry
Advanced semiconductors are playing a critical role in defence industries across the world. As microelectronics for both commercial and military applications become less distinct, commercial semiconductors provide significant value to complex weapons systems. Perhaps more so than the armed forces of other states, the United States military relies on relatively few but high-quality systems powered by advanced semiconductors. Yet much of the production of these semiconductors intended for military use has increasingly shifted abroad, leading to a situation where Taiwan has become a critical supplier of the semiconductors necessary to power the sophisticated equipment of the US military.
Semiconductors produced in Taiwan continue to provide critical functionality for advanced US weapons such as advanced fighter jets and ballistic missile defence systems. Strategic electronic components used in these systems utilise similar memory chips to those used in consumer electronics. As such, while Taiwan’s semiconductor supplies to the US defence sector in peace time are an efficient low-cost option for developing such advanced weapons, any disruptions arising from a conflict could impact the production, maintenance, and repair of these weapons systems.
The increasing reliance of the US military on commercial technology firms poses a problem because many of these firms source their technology from Taiwan, creating an uncomfortable dependency for the US defence sector on semiconductor supply chains. At a time when defence technologies are heading toward more integrated, autonomous, and unmanned platforms, semiconductors will play an increasingly central role in the development and maintenance of advanced weapons systems. Nevertheless, as the two leading semiconductor producers in the world, the United States and Taiwan are uniquely positioned to influence the next generation of defence platforms.
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Israel Consents to Increased Egyptian Military Presence in Sinai
The Sinai Peninsula is a strategic land bridge between Asia and Africa. While Israel withdrew its forces from the Sinai Peninsula by 1989 in accordance with the Egypt–Israel peace treaty of 1979, certain stipulations have remained in place. The 1979 treaty limits the number of troops each side can station on either side of the Sinai border, with any military surge requiring a decision from a joint committee made up of senior officers from both military forces. Now, during a recent meeting between senior Israeli and Egyptian military officers, the Israeli side has agreed to Egypt's request for an increased military presence on the peninsula.
At the meeting, both sides agreed for the need of an increased military presence in the Rafah area, which borders both Israel and the Gaza Strip. Militants in Sinai have intensified their attacks on government troops and assets since the 2013 coup which deposed Mohamed Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood. Unrest in the Sinai threatens Israeli security interests as the Rafah crossing is the only overland route into the Palestinian Gaza Strip which is not controlled by Israel.
While no details were released of just how many extra troops or exactly what equipment would be deployed to the area, it is the first time the two sides agreed to increase the Egyptian troop presence since 2018. A statement released by the Israeli Defence Forces noted that the move was necessary to “reinforce the Egyptian military’s security control over the area.” The Egyptian statement regarding the deployment framed the move as an effort to “preserve Egyptian national security.”
The move is yet another signal that ties between the two countries are deepening. Egyptian intelligence played a key role in negotiating a ceasefire in May between Israel and Hamas in order to end 11 days of bloody fighting. Moreover, positive relations between Egypt and Israel are increasingly visible in public meetings held between officials from both countries. In September, Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi met with Bennett in Sharm el-Sheikh in Cairo, where the two sides boasted of establishing a “foundation for deep ties in the future.” Both Egypt and Israel are now also said to be speaking daily regarding several key issues, including a potential long-term cease-fire deal in Gaza.
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Wednesday, November 10th
Ethiopia Counts on Chinese Arms to Turn the Tide Against Rebels
The conflict raging within Ethiopia is illustrating the power of cheap drones and ballistic missiles. Not long ago, only well-equipped militaries could boast of an arsenal of capable weapons of this kind, but as the technologies mature these weapons of war are increasingly being exported to affect the outcomes of conflicts abroad. The complex civil war raging in Ethiopia is no exception, as both Tigrayan and Ethiopian armed forces are relying on autonomous weapons systems to achieve their respective goals on the ground.
Until recently, most of the heavy weapons making up the arsenal of the Ethiopian National Defense Force were either Soviet-era T-72 tanks or Su-27 and MiG-23 fighter jets. But as both rebel and government forces seek to minimise the costs associated with their respective military operations, each is increasingly turning to combat drones and missiles as a more affordable means of achieving military objectives. This is largely because drones provide a more deniable and cost-efficient form of airpower, while missile artillery allows strikes to be conducted from far beyond the frontlines. Moreover, outside powers are all too willing to sell these weapons to other states as they not only have the power to sway the outcome of conflicts on top of the financial benefits arising from such arms deals, but also enable arms exporters to see their military technologies tested in combat scenarios.
The escalating conflict in Ethiopia is now a proving ground of sorts, with long-distance attacks by advanced missile, drone and artillery systems seeing common use. Over the last year, Ethiopia has begun acquiring Mohajer-6 drones from Iran, while more recent reports have indicated that Chinese-made Wing Loong I drones are now also a part of the arsenal used by the Ethiopian forces. There are now indications that Addis Ababa has sought out around 50 TL-2 air-to-ground missiles, with reports suggesting a first batch has already arrived in Ethiopia early this month. As Tigrayan forces continue to make gains against government positions, Addis Ababa is desperate for a way to counter their advance, and these sophisticated TL-2 missiles delivered from Wing Loong I drones may be one way recent rebel gains could be reversed.
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Cuba Accuses the US of Destabilisation Efforts
As the Cuban government prepares to relieve restrictions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, officials in Havana have accused the United States of preparing a destabilisation campaign across the country. In response to these activities, the Cuban Foreign Ministry has summoned foreign diplomats to a meeting in which Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez condemned the interference of US actors in the country's internal affairs, and accused the US government of instigating planned demonstrations against the wishes of Cuban authorities.
Cuban officials insist that the US embassy in Havana is conducting subversive activities aimed at undermining the political system in Cuba, stating that US diplomats are meeting with opponents of the Cuban government and providing them with technical and financial support. Rodriguez decried repeated statements made by US officials over recent weeks, claiming they are aimed at “encouraging, guiding, instigating destabilization actions in our country.” But the United States sees things differently, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken making clear that the US will continue to “condemn the repression of human rights on the island.” US President Joe Biden has emphasised that his government is taking “concerted action” in order to “bolster the cause of the Cuban people” when speaking to Cuban Americans earlier this year.
Cuba has been under a strict US-imposed blockade since 1962, when President John F. Kennedy implemented harsh measures aimed at isolating the country following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion a year earlier. As a result of this long-held US policy, Cuba has struggled with food and medicine shortages, and the country’s economy is effectively barred from conducting regional trade as a result of US pressure. Particularly damaging to the Cuban economy has been the Cuban Democracy Act of 1992 and the Helms-Burton Act, as both work to constrain Cuban economic activity by restricting the import of Cuban goods into the US and by punishing any third party wishing to conduct trade with Cuba via sanctions. Going forward, the probability of any change in relations between the two is very low, with international efforts to lift the blockade via the UN routinely blocked by both the United States and its ally Israel.
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Thursday, November 11th
Somalia Remains Fragile After Decades of Conflict
Somalia has experienced only brief periods of peace since Britain ceased administering much of the country in 1960. While the years following independence saw some semblance of peace, violence has nonetheless come to dominate much of the country’s postcolonial history. The downfall of President Siad Barre in January 1991 resulted in a violent power struggle in many parts of Somalia, and eventually led to the US-led military intervention in 1992 as part of a wider international peacekeeping effort which ended in the spring of 1995. But violent rivalries between tribes and clans have continued to the present day, where US special operations forces remain to train, advise and assist both local troops and African Union (AU) peacekeepers.
The UN Security Council mandated AU Mission in Somalia is intended to support the implementation of the Somalia Transition Plan, which is aimed at providing security for large parts of Somalia in the absence of state authority. The Security Council has stressed that the AU mission must take “coordinated and cohesive” efforts to achieve a transition of security responsibilities to the Somali security forces before the end of 2023. But in recent years, as US involvement has weakened, the UN and AU have increasingly grown frustrated with the costs of maintaining peacekeeping operations there. Creating a cohesive Somali security force has been, and remains, a task held back by corruption and lack of will, as time and again local warlords elevated to positions of power fall back on violence in pursuit of narrower goals.
Over time, consistent failure to work around these obstacles has led many to acknowledge that clan loyalties remain a dominant force in Somali culture. Today, Somalia’s political system is structured to reflect this reality, with the federal government recognising four major clans on top of a coalition of smaller clans. While this political structure has gone some way toward establishing a functional government, it has done little to upend the established primacy of warlords across Somalia. And after decades-long efforts to reverse this reality, it seems little has been achieved to mitigate the power of tribal warlords. While UN officials see sufficient progress to justify a reduction of the military mission, AU officials remain sceptical that such a move would lead to a reduction in violence.
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The Taliban’s Struggle for International Recognition
Almost three months after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan, its government has yet to achieve formal recognition by a single country. The lack of international recognition cannot be attributed to a lack of effort, as its leadership has been busy meeting with officials in the region as well as those from the UN. But much like the UN’s decision to turn down a Taliban request to have its envoy address the UN General Assembly, so too have countries shown hesitation in recognising the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. If this state of affairs continues, the Taliban risks becoming a pariah on the international stage.
According to international law, recognition is one of the key means by which to elevate a government as lawful, legitimate, and in control of its territory. Afghanistan’s neighbours and other regional players have strong incentives to formally engage with the Taliban as recognition would facilitate trade and investments, enhance security, and minimise risks of miscalculation. However, countries near Afghanistan have thus far eschewed recognition, instead choosing to engage with the Taliban through back channels. While officials from Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian states have met with high-ranking members of the Taliban, their moves have stopped short of recognition. Nevertheless, if recognition does come from the international community, it is far more likely to be undertaken by countries in Afghanistan’s neighbourhood than by the United States or its allies.
The United States and its allies are likely to maintain steep demands in any negotiations involving recognition. The Taliban government is unlikely to compromise on its fundamental Islamic ideology, nor are Taliban officials eager to concede any ground to the powers which just recently were occupying the country. As such, the probability of officials in Kabul accepting US demands in the near-term are next to none. For this reason, the Taliban’s diplomatic efforts are better aimed at first attaining recognition from regional players, which are more likely to opt for recognition due to geographic factors. For now though, most are adapting a wait-and-watch approach, looking for signs of sustained improvements in security and the Taliban’s political authority.
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Friday, November 12th
Israel Unveils ‘Game-Changing’ Electronic Warfare System
Israel has unveiled a new electronic warfare system that is said to be a major technological advantage in a combat scenario. Called the Scorpius, the weapons system made by Israel Aerospace Industries promises to revolutionise the use of electronic warfare. The Scorpius can apparently halt the electronic systems of a wide range of targets, boasting an advantage over older forms of electromagnetic warfare by sending targeted beams without interfering with other systems in the target’s vicinity.
If Israeli claims are true, the weapon would mark a low-cost electronic warfare system capable of being mounted on land, sea and air platforms. Unlike previous electronic warfare systems, the Scorpius uses what is called active electronically scanned array technology in order to scan its environment, after which the system can send narrow beams at “any wavelength, any frequency, any direction” against designated targets. These targeted beams have the ability to disrupt enemy electronic sensors, data communications, navigation and radar. Israel has said the new system will be considered part of a “soft protection” network, working in tandem with other units to disrupt and damage any target which utilises electromagnetic means to function — such as planes, drones and missiles.
A representative of Israel Aerospace Industries has said that the weapon is offensive in its design, providing the Israeli Defence Forces with a capability which is “very effective in engaging and disabling enemy systems.” The weapon is unique due to its ability to utilise a wide beam of electromagnetic energy for the purpose of target acquisition in a large area, after which multiple narrow beams fire at their intended targets. If the claims made by Israel Aerospace Industries regarding the capabilities of this system are accurate, the weapon would provide Israel with a way to deal with multiple, cost-efficient drone systems at the same time by jamming electronic systems even if they are hundreds of kilometres away.
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France Hosts International Conference on the Future of Libya
French President Emmanuel Macron hosted leaders and diplomats in Paris for an international conference on the future of Libya. Stability in the resource-rich North African country has been hard to come by following the 2011 military intervention which overthrew Muammar Gaddafi. Since then, Libya has been embroiled in a bitter conflict between local warlords supported by outside powers. While the initial intervention was justified as a humanitarian mission, the authorization for the use of military force stemming from United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973 has led to a decade of bloodshed.
The leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Egypt, as well officials from the US, have all gathered to cement backing for a planned election and to facilitate the removal of foreign forces. The elections are part of a UN-backed peace process which seeks to end a decade of chaos which continues to draw in regional powers and undermine Mediterranean stability. But disputes remain between rival Libyan factions over the eligibility of certain factions to participate on top of issues related to the electoral process. And there are disagreements between outside powers involved in the conflict as well, as Turkey and Russia chose to send low-level representatives to the conference, signalling disinterest for the aims and objectives of the conference.
Nevertheless, the conference represents a high-stakes diplomatic effort by France, which has on multiple occasions sought to convene a meeting of key Libyan leaders and international stakeholders. Turkey has been the main military backer of the Government of National Accord, while the United Arab Emirates, Russia and Egypt have openly supported Haftar’s Libyan National Army. Despite the intentions of those attending the conference, none of the international actors have clean hands in Libya. A UN report released in October revealed that all sides have been involved in violations of international humanitarian law.
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