In Geopolitics This Week
Ethiopia Challenges Nile Status Quo with Ratified Water Agreement, Hungary Bypasses Ukrainian Sanctions to Secure Russian Oil Supply, US Cements Military Control in Central Pacific, and other stories.
Ethiopia Challenges Nile Status Quo with Ratified Water Agreement
Ethiopia has submitted a ratified Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) to the African Union, following South Sudan's July 2024 ratification, triggering the formation of the Nile River Basin Commission (NRBC) within two months. This marks a shift in Nile water governance, ending the century-long dominance of downstream states. The CFA establishes the first basin-wide legal framework for water management, potentially redefining water politics across eleven riparian states.
The CFA's core principle of “equitable and reasonable use” directly confronts existing agreements favouring Egypt and Sudan. These downstream nations staunchly oppose Article 14b, which mandates that countries “not significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin state.” Egypt and Sudan claim this threatens their water security and “acquired rights” under the 1959 bilateral accord that allocated them the entire Nile flow. By rejecting “preferential privileges,” the CFA dismantles the historical power structure that has controlled Nile waters, setting the stage for a fundamental redistribution of this vital resource.
The NRBC's authority to make binding decisions on water allocation provides upstream countries legal grounds to develop hydraulic projects, potentially reducing downstream flow. Egypt and Sudan's refuse to ratify the CFA, creating a complex legal dichotomy, with parallel frameworks governing Nile waters. This impasse may intensify regional tensions, complicate negotiations over projects like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, and risk instability. The CFA's implementation will likely lead to increased water usage by upstream countries, reducing water availability for Egypt and Sudan. This will impact agricultural output, hydroelectric power generation, and economic development plans in these downstream nations, forcing them to adapt their water management strategies or seek alternative means to secure their water needs.
Hungary Bypasses Ukrainian Sanctions to Secure Russian Oil Supply
Mol Nyrt., Hungary's main energy company, has arranged to continue receiving Russian crude oil via the Druzhba pipeline, circumventing Ukraine's sanctions on Lukoil. From September 9, 2024, Mol will take ownership of the crude at the Belarus-Ukraine border instead of within Hungary and Slovakia. This change allows Russian oil to flow while complying with Ukraine's transit restrictions on Lukoil. The deal effectively restructures the supply chain, with Mol assuming responsibility for the oil earlier in its journey.
The deal secures a planned 510,000 metric tons of oil for Slovakia and 360,000 tons for Hungary in September. Tatneft and Russneft are the main suppliers. Mol now pays for transportation from the Belarus-Ukraine border to its refineries, a cost previously covered by Russian entities. The shift in financial responsibility for transportation is significant, as it transfers the risk and cost of moving the oil through Ukraine from Russian companies to Mol. This allows for continued oil flow despite the complex political situation between Ukraine and Russia.
The arrangement shows that Ukraine's transit restrictions have not stopped Russian oil flow to these countries, exposing the limitations of Ukraine's sanctions. It demonstrates how geography and existing infrastructure continue to shape energy policies, often trumping political alignments. The arrangement may encourage other EU members to seek similar workarounds, potentially undermining the collective effort to reduce dependence on Russian energy sources.
US Cements Military Control in Central Pacific
Earlier in the year, the United States finalized long-term military control over Palau, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) through renewed Compacts of Free Association (COFA). These agreements encompass an oceanic area exceeding 2 million square miles, strategically positioned between Hawaii and the Philippines. The US commits $7.1 billion in funding over 20 years and continues visa-free US residency for compact state citizens. In exchange, Washington maintains “strategic denial” rights, prohibiting other nations' military access to the region, and a “defence veto” over the states' military-related diplomacy with third countries.
Recent negotiations primarily addressed economic terms, notably shifting away from previous sovereignty debates. This change reflects an evolving stance among compact state leaders, with some now referring to their nations as part of the US “homeland.” The agreements contain provisions ensuring the continuation of US military controls even if a state unilaterally withdraws from its compact, effectively making US military presence permanent. These arrangements contradict the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea's principles on freedom of navigation, which the US advocates for in other regions such as the South China Sea, creating a legal double standard.
The compacts bolster the US strategic foothold in the Pacific, limiting the compact states' autonomy in military engagements with other nations, particularly China. This restriction on sovereignty raises questions about the application of international maritime law in the region. The agreements effectively create a vast US-controlled maritime zone, enhancing Washington's ability to project power and monitor military activities in the Western Pacific. As competition intensifies, these compacts will likely play a crucial role in shaping regional security dynamics.
Monday, September 9th
US Cements Lasting Military Control in Central Pacific — Responsible Statecraft
European Navies Struggle to Protect Critical Maritime Infrastructure — IISS
Middle East Powers Gain Ground in South Caucasus — Al-Monitor
Vietnam-Philippines Maritime Ties Grow — The Diplomat
Central Asia-Afghanistan Trade Surges — Oil Price
Russia Promotes Nuclear Power Solutions in Central Asia — Eurasianet
Tuesday, September 10th
Ethiopia Submits Ratified Nile Water Agreement — EJIL:Talk!
Japan and Australia to Jointly Develop Long-Range Missiles — Asia Times
Western Powers Sanction Iran for Supplying Missiles to Russia — France 24
UAE and India Deepen Partnership with Energy and Nuclear Agreements — Al-Monitor
Aral Sea Shrinkage Strains Uzbek-Kazakh Economic Strategies — Geopolitical Monitor
Russia and China Expand Arctic Cooperation with New Route — Jamestown
Wednesday, September 11th
Spain Shifts Stance on EU Tariffs for Chinese Electric Vehicles — Reuters
Saudi Aramco Expands Downstream Presence in China — Oil Price
Japan Establishes Fleet Information Warfare Command — Geopolitical Monitor
Hungary Secures Russian Oil Supply — Bloomberg
China Deepens Strategic Engagement with Cabo Verde — The Diplomat
Evolution of Turkey's Defence Industry Partnerships in Europe — IISS
Thursday, September 12th
UAE Emerges as Strategic Battleground Between China and US — Oil Price
Europe Slashes Russian Energy Imports — CSIS
Uzbekistan Balances Russian Pressure to Join Eurasian Economic Union — Eurasianet
OPEC+ Production Cuts Create Tension with Major Oil Companies — Reuters
Norway Lifts Arms Export Ban on Turkey — Al-Monitor
Haniyeh Assassination in Tehran Poses Strategic Dilemma for Iran — Jamestown
Friday, September 13th
China Bolsters Economic Ties with Maldives Amid Debt Crisis — The Straits Times
Sudan's Darfur Crisis Exposes Regional Power Dynamics — CSIS
India Bolsters Armenia's Military — Jamestown
Russia's Arctic Advantage Erodes — Asia Times
Europe Ramps Up EV Battery Recycling to Secure Critical Minerals — Oil Price
Major Oil and Gas Discovery in Pakistan's Territorial Waters — Eurasia Review
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