In Geopolitics This Week
Parties to the GERD Dispute Court Brazil for UN Backing, 13th Round of China-India Military Talks End in Failure, European Union Military Mission to Train Commandos in Mozambique, and other stories.
Monday, October 11th
UK Begins Production of Latest Skynet Defence Satellite
On a recent visit to an Airbus production plant, the UK’s Minister for Defence Procurement oversaw the start of production on the first panel of the UK’s Skynet 6A military communications satellite. Skynet is a series of military communications satellites which provide strategic communication services to the British Armed Forces. The UK government says that the Skynet 6A will help extend and enhance the current Skynet fleet of satellites.
Airbus won the contract to design and build the latest generation of Skynet satellites in 2020. The more than £500 million contract signed between Airbus and the UK involves the development, manufacture, assembly, integration, test and launch of the latest 6A variant of the military communications satellite. Moreover, the contract will see Airbus deliver technology development programmes, new telemetry, tracking and command systems, launch, in-orbit testing and ground segment updates.
This latest 6A variant will be built to utilise more of the radio frequency spectrum for military communications while also integrating improved digital processing capabilities. The UK Ministry of Defence is also keen to maximise cost effectiveness and flexibility in the 6A variant Skynet satellites by improving orbit raising propulsion mechanisms. Once complete, the satellite will be integrated into the Skynet network from Airbus facilities located in the UK, reflecting the UK Space Agency’s desire for sovereign end-to-end satellite production and support.
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Japan’s New Head of State Snubs South Korea
Whenever a change of high-level leadership occurs in a state, the choice of who the incoming official chooses to speak to first can be an indication of where that leaders’ international policy priorities lie. Those foreign leaders who are contacted sooner can be considered a high priority relationship for an incoming administration. With this in mind, as the new Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida assumes his new position, his office, as well as that of Japan's Foreign Ministry, carefully consider the order in which calls are placed.
Leaders of the Quad security alliance — consisting of Australia, India, Japan and the United States — were among Fumio Kishida's first phone calls with foreign leaders, and were the first to receive praise, with Kishida describing the conversations with Quad allies as “diplomacy in an exceedingly good fashion.” Kishida also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping after holding his calls with Washington and Australia. Conversations with the leadership in the UK were scheduled for Wednesday due to scheduling conflicts, according to the ministry.
Perhaps most surprising was the delayed nature of the scheduled call between Kishida and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, with the two eventually speaking only on Friday. The two allies of the United States have a complicated relationship, which has for long been an uncomfortable one. They remain at odds over a multitude of issues, many of which go back to a time when Korea was under Japanese rule between 1910 and 1945. Relations may be worsening too. While the previous Japanese prime minister held a conversation with his South Korean counterpart just four days after assuming his office, Kishida's administration appears less eager to exchange pleasantries with Seoul.
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Tuesday, October 12th
Parties to the GERD Dispute Court Brazil for UN Backing
The election held at the 75th session of the General Assembly saw Brazil win a seat as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) for the term 2022-2023. Brazil's accession to the non-permanent membership of the UNSC for the coming year has attracted the attention of the three main parties embroiled in the ongoing Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute — Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Each party to the GERD dispute is seeking to bolster ties with Brazil in an effort to gain the upper hand in the ongoing international row.
Of the three, Egypt has been perhaps the most active in this regard. During a recent visit by Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourao to Cairo in September, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed the latest developments surrounding the GERD crisis. Mourao is said to have expressed an understanding of Egypt’s position in the dispute, recognising the critical role of the Nile River to Egypt’s water and food security. For Egypt, the importance of securing international support cannot be understated, and Cairo hopes to win over influential actors such as Brazil in anticipation of an escalation in the GERD dispute.
But Cairo is not alone in recognising that a diplomatic resolution to the dispute will require intervention from outside powers. Both Sudan and Ethiopia are also looking to improve ties with Brazil, whose vote in the UNSC may prove critical to their respective interests. Sudan has tried to facilitate investment from Brazil in agriculture, animal wealth, aviation and information technology. And Ethiopia has made overtures to Brazil politically too, when in May this year, Ethiopia and Brazil held a joint political summit during which Ethiopian officials touted their countries readiness to cooperate with Brazil across a range of fields.
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Russia Rules Out Support for US Military Presence in Central Asia
Russia has reaffirmed its opposition to any potential US military presence in Central Asia. While a previous mention suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin was open to the idea of hosting US forces within Russian bases in Central Asia, a recent meeting between Russian and US officials seems to have confirmed the rumours as wholly unfounded, and that Russia remains in firm opposition to any such plan.
US Under-Secretary of State Victoria Nuland arrived in Moscow on a three-day visit for talks that were said to focus on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, whom Nuland met in person, said their meeting touched on arms control negotiations and the situation in Afghanistan as well, with strategic stability at the forefront of the agenda. Ryabkov expressed particular concern about the potential fallout from the recently formed AUKUS pact, emphasizing that Russia will look to explore how this new alliance structure will affect nuclear non-proliferation regimes.
When discussions turned to the topic of Afghanistan, Ryabkov ruled out any possibility of Russia hosting US troops on its military bases in Central Asia. He is quoted as saying that the he sought to make it clear to Washington that an American military presence in Central Asia is unacceptable to Moscow. Disagreements between the two sides were also evident in discussions over the restoration of diplomatic staff, where there seems little room for optimism in the near-term because neither side appears willing to restore the number of diplomatic staff to the levels they were just a few years ago. On the whole, the meeting brought no concrete changes to the chilly relationship between the two sides, with any positive breakthrough in relations unlikely without a higher-level meeting.
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Wednesday, October 13th
Azerbaijan and Iran Work to Diffuse Tense Standoff
Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran have been tense of late. Iranian ground forces launched military exercises near the Iranian border with Azerbaijan, putting on a considerable display of military capabilities in protest of Baku’s deepening ties with Turkey and Israel. Tehran had called for the withdrawal of Israeli forces and “Sunni jihadists” from the region, while Baku denied that Turkish and Israeli troops were operating on its border with Iran. Since then, both Azerbaijan and Iran have sought to diffuse the tense situation through dialogue.
Following discussion between Baku and Tehran, the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry announced the intention of both sides of settling their differences through dialogue. Discussions held on October 12th between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Iran stressed the importance of “respecting the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty of the countries.” Statements made by both sides also recognised that recent rhetoric had harmed bilateral relations, with Tehran arguing that the two countries should “not provide opportunities for the enemies to disturb the two countries’ relations.”
The imposition of a road tax and checkpoints for Iranian trucks shipping goods to Armenia was another issue which damaged relations between the two. During the recent call, officials from both sides stressed the need for a negotiated settlement to the issues faced by Iranian truck drivers as they deliver goods to the Armenian capital. But there was little agreement on Baku’s military ties to Israel. Tehran has accused Azerbaijan of harbouring Israeli military personnel, which Baku rejected as a “totally baseless” claim.
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The US Accuses Cambodia of Lacking Transparency
Cambodia appears to welcome the rise of China in Asia while other states in the region remain on the fence. While some in the region pursue a hedging strategy of economic engagement with China and security alignment with the United States, Cambodia has chosen to bandwagon with China. As Cambodia pursues a foreign policy more closely aligned with Beijing, Washington accuses Phnom Penh of lacking transparency about Chinese construction activities at a large naval base.
Cambodia's ties with the US have frayed in recent years as US pressure on Cambodia’s ruling party for its ties to China mount. Last year, Cambodia said it had demolished a US-funded facility at the Ream naval base to allow for an expansion of the naval facilities there. The United States protested, and said Cambodia had just a year earlier turned down US offers to repair the base. US pressure has intensified as Cambodia’s ties with Beijing become more apparent, with some US officials stating that any Chinese military presence at Ream would be in violation of Cambodia's constitution. Washington is adamant that Cambodia has not been fully transparent about the intent, nature, and scope of the Ream naval base project, as well as the role of China in its expansion.
Cambodia has repeatedly shrugged off reports that the naval base will host Chinese naval assets. Phay Siphan, Cambodia's government spokesperson, said that the presence of Chinese construction crews at Ream was merely a part of its development assistance program to Cambodia. “Our port is open to all when the construction is finished,” exclaimed Phay Siphan, who went on to say that Phnom Penh welcomes any help in the expansion of the port. If Cambodia does intend to host Chinese naval assets at Ream, such a move would be significant boost for China in a region where the United States has for many decades been the dominant power.
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Thursday, October 14th
The Coup in Guinea Impacts the Price of Aluminium
Following the coup carried out by a special forces team in Guinea last month, the price of aluminium has skyrocketed worldwide. Guinea is a major producer of bauxite: a primary ore used in the production of aluminium. The country produced roughly 77.8 million tons of bauxite in 2020, which represented 21.8% of the global supply. Therefore, the production and export of bauxite from Guinea serves a critical part of the global supply of the widely-applied aluminium. The coup has caused severe disruptions to the supply of aluminium, impacting producers the world over.
Guinea is a nation with some of the world’s largest deposits of bauxite ore, and stands out as the number one bauxite-producing country of the world. For this reason, the supply of bauxite from the country has an important role in the stability of the global aluminum market. The role of Guinea to this market was demonstrated just hours after the coup took place, as aluminum prices rose to their highest level in a decade. Surging aluminum prices have driven up the cost of everything that the metal is used for, from kitchen foil to beer, with a drastic impact on the automobile industry.
With the industry’s gradual transition to electric vehicles (EVs), it is expected that demand for aluminium will only grow in the coming years. The unique features of the metal make it more preferable to steel in the eyes of manufacturers, and the metal’s corrosion resistance, shock absorption, and lighter weight make it ideal for the manufacture of EVs. With the weight of batteries constituting a significant weight burden in the manufacturing process, car makers have increasingly relied on aluminum to keep their products lightweight. As such, severe disruptions to the supply of aluminium are sure to increase the costs associated with the manufacture of EVs.
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13th Round of China-India Military Talks End in Failure
The armed forces of India and China have been locked in a standoff in eastern Ladakh along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), which serves as the de facto border between the two countries. In April last year, People’s Liberation Army soldiers began crossing the LAC at several points in Ladakh, contesting the remote region until tensions exploded in fighting that resulted in both sides losing troops. Since then, both have engaged in talks to de-escalate the tense situation along the LAC attempting to facilitate a joint disengagement of troops.
Discussions now appear to have broken down, as this month saw the latest round of talks between the military commanders of Indian and Chinese armed forces collapse. The two sides came out of discussions laying the blame on each other. China accused India of negotiating in bad faith by persisting with “unreasonable and unrealistic demands.” India denied Chinese claims, and argued that it had “made constructive suggestions” aimed at resolving the dispute in eastern Ladakh. Indian officials accused their Chinese counterparts of being unable to “provide any forward-looking proposals.”
While previous rounds of talks did not always produce agreement, previous statements released following discussions often included some positive signals. That was not the case after talks ended, as both sides lashed out at each other in their respective statements. There has been a noticeable hardening of positions as each appears more and more willing to engage in muscle-flexing. That both China and India have show little commitment to talks is worrying because both sides are reported to have amassed large amounts of troops and weapons near the LAC.
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Friday, October 15th
European Union Military Mission to Train Commandos in Mozambique
The Council of the European Union has adopted a decision which will launch the European Union Military Training Mission in Mozambique (EUTM Mozambique). The military mission will support and train Mozambican troops to help them better deal with an insurgency which has gripped the country’s Cabo Delgado province. The new European military mission will be taking over from the Portuguese Armed Forces in the coming weeks, and is expected to reach full operation capacity by December.
A deadly insurgency has ravaged the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province since late 2017, with reports indicating some 3,000 dead and 800,000 displaced by violence. Former colonial power Portugal has been providing training for Mozambican troops for years, but now operations are being transformed into an EU-wide military mission. The mandate of the EU mission will initially last two years, during which the strategic objective will be to support units of the Mozambican armed forces. Portugal is expected to maintain a significant force as part of the EU mission, with France, Italy, and Spain now also expected to provide personnel for the mission.
The approval of the EU mission comes at a time when regional powers are looking for support in countering the insurgency which has gripped Mozambique. Last month, the 16 African countries which form the Southern African Development Community (SADC) approved the joint deployment of forces to Mozambique. In addition, Rwanda, which is not a member of the SADC, also announced its intention to deploy a contingent of 1,000 troops and military police to the war-torn province of Cabo Delgado. Instability in the gas-rich province has contributed to soaring gas prices, which in turn has led to mounting international pressure to quash the insurgency.
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Israel & Sudan Discuss Steps Toward Normalisation
Since 1958, Sudan has maintained a boycott of Israel. Sudan was instrumental in the organisation of the fourth Arab League Summit, which took place shortly after the Six-Day War, and the capital Khartoum saw the country host regional leaders as they jointly agreed upon the Khartoum Resolution. The Khartoum resolution was the backbone of the region-wide boycott of Israel, calling for the rejection of peace and negotiations with Israel, as well as for a joint rejection of Israeli statehood. But decades later, with the signing of the Abraham Accords, the once stalwart region-wide boycott appears to be withering away.
The Sudanese government has since 1993 been designated as a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, complicating its ability to enter negotiations with international partners due to the threat of sanctions. As part of the Abraham Accords Israel signed with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, Israel’s firmest ally, the United States, agreed to remove Sudan from its terror list. In exchange, Sudan agreed to end its boycott, paving the way for Sudan’s entry onto the Abraham Accords. Sudan formally agreed to normalise ties with Israel in a deal brokered by the United States. Statements by senior Sudanese officials in recent months have suggested that the military leadership favoured normalising ties with Israel, while the civil leadership was far more reluctant.
Now, the normalisation of ties is slowly taking shape as Sudanese and Israeli officials met in a rare public encounter between the two nations. Sudanese Justice Minister Nasredeen Abdulbari met Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister Idan Roll in Abu Dhabi for discussions on the implementation of the Accords. While not a meeting between heads of state, the public display of amity is nonetheless a strong sign that Sudan, a long-time supporter of the boycott of Israel, has began the process of establishing economic, political, and military ties.
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