In Geopolitics This Week
Harsh EU sanctions likely to fall on Belarus, Russia's National Wealth Fund to abandon the US dollar, and other stories.
Monday, May 31st
Biden Administration Releases 2022 Military Budget
The $715 billion Pentagon request for 2022 was sent to the US Congress on Friday and it represents an $11 billion increase over the previous year. A big chunk of this proposed budget is what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has called the “largest ever” request for research, development, test and evaluation funding. The White House has proposed $112 billion in that area, a 5 percent increase.
Overall, the budget request is a major push for military readiness and increased development with a firm focus on countering China — the Defense Department budget “prioritizes the need to counter the threat from China as the department’s top challenge.” The budget also proposes “executable and responsible investments” in the Navy fleet, supports “ongoing nuclear modernization programs while ensuring that these efforts are sustainable,” and “continues to ensure that US soldiers, sailors, airmen, marines and guardians remain the best trained and equipped force in the world.”
Here are the main takeaways from the requested budget:
$27.7B for Nuclear Modernization, including B-21 strike bombers, ballistic missile submarines, long-range missiles.
$52.4B or Lethal Air Forces, which include 85 F-35 fighter jets, 14 KC-46 aerial tankers, CH-53K helicopters, 12 F-15EX fighter jets, and 30 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters.
$34.6B for Combat Effective Naval Forces, including a new ballistic missile submarine, aircraft carrier, as well as additional submarines, warships and support vessels.
$12.3B for Combat Effective Ground Forces, including 3,799 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles, 70 M-1 Abrams tank modifications and upgrades, and 92 Amphibious Combat Vehicles.
$20.6B for Space and Space-Based Systems, including 5 launch vehicles, GPS system, and infrared systems.
$10.4B for Cyberspace Activities.
$133.1 billion for force readiness.
$2.8 billion for divestments, including Army night vision imaging system, missile launcher, electronic warfare; Navy decommissioned ships and divestment of F/A-18 fighter jets, RQ-21 drones; Air Force divestment of A-10 warplanes, F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, KC-135 and KC-10 tankers, C-130 transport planes, and RQ-4 drones.
Senator Jack Reed (D), Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, called the budget request “a starting point,” and went on to say that this budget request “appropriately recognizes China as the ‘pacing threat’ for our military.”
Mali’s Military Releases Civilian Government
The military officer who overthrew Mali’s elected government last year, Col. Assimi Goita, has deposed the civilian president and prime minister of the transitional authority he himself helped install in the aftermath of the coup, creating a new political crisis in the West African country.
Goita, who had been serving as vice president in the interim government, declared himself president on Thursday. As part of his new role he promised to adhere to an 18-month transition to civilian rule that is scheduled to culminate in national elections in February 2022.
Regional and international leaders are unconvinced, though. The United Nations Security Council called for a restoration of the deposed transitional government, and the leaders of the regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African State, dispatched a team of mediators to Mali. France, Mali’s former colonial ruler, is threatening sanctions against the perpetrators of what President Emmanuel Macron described as a “coup within a coup.”
Goita has complained that he was not consulted about the new Cabinet and accused the two leaders of trying to sabotage the transitional process. On Wednesday, Ndaw and Ouane were forced to resign their positions. They were released from military detention the following day.
The renewed political crisis has fuelled fears about regional security, as the two competing jihadi coalitions, one aligned with al-Qaida and the other with the Islamic State, could now take advantage of the power vacuum.
Read more about this story here.
Tuesday, June 1st
Russia’s Efforts to Keep Up with its Rivals in Space
In April, the Russian deputy prime minister of the military industry, Yuri Borisov, announced that Russia would withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) project and set up a national orbital station. Grandiose as these plans sound, the intentions proclaimed by Borisov may be closer to a fabrication than a plan grounded in reality.
Russian analyst Pavel Luzin succinctly captures this dissonance between the proposed plans and Russia’s ability to realise them. Firstly, no decisions on the matter have been documented by the Russian leadership. Secondly, Russia cannot withdraw from the ISS unless the entire station is closed down, which remains highly unlikely. Thirdly, Russia objectively cannot put such a national station in orbit before 2035, even if it were to launch in the near-term.
Luzin is also sceptical about the goals, plans and actual capabilities of Russian industry for undertaking a national space station project. Since important space programmes are delayed in their publication, namely the state programme “Russian Space Activities for 2021–2030.” This, Luzin says, is also reflected in the tone of the meetings at the Kremlin. That projects are delayed spur questions about whether Russia is even capable of implementing such a project without the aid of foreign partners like India and Brazil, and the pressure of sanctions further compounds issues.
The head of Roskosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, has said previously that Russia is not interested in participating in the Gateway project under conditions proposed by the United States, but Luzin says this should only be regarded as part of a Russian negotiating tactic.
Read more about this story here.
What Role Could Europe Play in the Reconstruction of Syria
As the gravity of the ten year old ‘civil war‘ in Syria settles and the most significant stakeholders jostle to negotiate settlements favourable to their national interests in the reconstruction to come, what role Europe assumes and what outcome a European involvement would bring will be interesting issues to follow.
There are some who argue that European governments should prioritise efforts to support Syria’s agricultural sector with a values-based strategy to “help meet Syrians’ core needs and promote some bottom-up stability.” That there are an increasing number of international NGO’s are increasingly advocating support to rebuild the resilience of the agricultural sector means that European governments should explore how they can support this effort.
Increased involvement by the EU in the political process of the reconstruction would likely come in the shape of ground-up support, amplifying relationships with Syrian civil society with an anti-Assad political base, and providing aid through concession-based aid programs.
But there are also legitimate concerns from European powers as well as the EU bureaucracy. Leaving itself out of the process will benefit no European as other significant players reap the benefits future of this destroyed country, namely — Turkey, Russia, Iran, the United States, and Israel.
Read more about this story here.
Wednesday, June 2nd
Harsh EU Sanctions Likely to Fall on Belarus
As European leaders hope that the growing costs associated with the arrest of one Belarusian dissident will be enough to deter Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's behaviour in the future. But if brazen actions such as the May 23 arrests stifle dissent and weaken the threat against Lukashenko's regime, he may see the trade-off as a bargain. It all depends on the willingness of those involved to persist.
Belarus is already experiencing consequences for forcing a RyanAir flight to make an unscheduled landing in Minsk on May 23, to detain a high-profile dissident, Roman Protasevich, and his girlfriend, Sofia Sapega. Flights over Belarussian airspace are suspended and some airlines (KLM, Lufthansa, airBaltic) have suspended services to Minsk. Worse still, there is a chance that the EU will request a ban on all Belarussian carriers from travel in the bloc.
The European Union is also planning to sanction Belarusian officials behind the operation, and many in Europe are calling on European governments to sanction Belarus' potash industry, a critical natural resource Belarus relies upon for export, making up 7.84 percent of all Belarussian exports. Other key economic sectors likely to be targeted are oil and petrochemicals.
Belarus is also likely facing diplomatic expulsions from European cities that would complicate relations with other European countries, reduce services available to Belarusian citizens abroad and make a repeat of the May 23 incident more complicated by limiting the Belarusian intelligence service's presence abroad.
Read more about this story here.
War Crimes Investigation of Australian Soldiers May Be Complicated by Embassy Closure
The withdrawal of Australian troops from Afghanistan and the planned closure of the embassy in Kabul will complicate the task of investigators gathering evidence to prosecute soldiers alleged to have committed war crimes.
A four-year-long investigation into allegations that members of Australian special forces committed war crimes in Afghanistan, 25 soldiers stand accused of murdering 39 unarmed Afghan civilians or prisoners and cruelly treating two others.
The inquiry conducted found credible information about 23 incidents in which non-combatants or prisoners were unlawfully killed by or at the direction of Australian soldiers in circumstances which would almost certainly constitute war crimes.
A practice adopted by some soldiers of carrying ‘throwdowns’ — easily concealable weapons or equipment such as pistols, small handheld radios, weapon magazines and grenades — which would be placed with the body when the person killed was found to be unarmed. Teams of Australian investigators are said to be gathering evidence with a view to laying formal charges.
Read more about this story here.
Thursday, June 3rd
How the US-China Rivalry Poses Headaches for Bangladesh
Bangladesh seems to have been caught up in the US-China rivalry in the South Asia/Indian Ocean region. Specifically, this contest seems to be over controlling access to the Bay of Bengal and projecting sphere(s) of influence through the Indo-Pacific region.
What strategic interest are in play for China? Tuneer Mukherjee argues in The Diplomat that “the Indian Ocean and its surrounding waters are home to China’s principal shipping lanes, and there is a need to guard its economic and energy security against an adversarial power seeking to infringe on Chinese access to these waters. China has, therefore, embarked on an agenda to actualize a commercial support base in the [Indian Ocean region], which could later be leveraged militarily.”
As the US-China strategic competition assumed a military dimension on both sides of the equation, the urgency to elevate the strategic partnership with Bangladesh into a military-to-military alliance seemed to be the way forward for the Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe. China’s longstanding friendship with Bangladesh was upgraded to a strategic defence partnership driven by President Xi during the visit to Dhaka in 2016.
Read more about this story here.
Russia to Abandon the US dollar in its National Wealth Fund
Russian news agency TASS reports that Russia plans to fully abandon the US dollar in its National Wealth Fund (NWF) structure, as well as reduce the share of the British pound, all within the next month.
This was revealed by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday. He added that the share of euro and yuan will rise, gold will be added, but the portfolio of Japanese yen will remain unchanged in the NWF.
Russia began to sharply reduce investment in the US public debt in the spring of 2018 and this announcement could have significant repercussions as it furthers a trend of economic detachment. Siluanov said that "investments in dollars will equal 0%; in euro they’ll come to 40%; in yuan they’ll amount to 30%; in gold - 20%; and in pounds and yuan - 5% each. We have substituted dollars with an increase of 5% in euro, gold and yuan," the finance chief explained.
Russia's NWF has a total value of some $120 billion. The Central Bank of Russia has likewise decreased its dollar reserves and there are suggestions that Moscow already has an alternative to the SWIFT transfer system in place should the US deny Russia access.
Read more about this story here.
Friday, June 4th
Morocco May Have Used Migration as a Weapon to Punish Spain
There are reports that on May 17th more than 6,000 migrants crossed the border from Morocco to Spain as they swam across the Mediterranean Sea to a Spanish outpost in North Africa. In reaction, Spain has deployed troops to Ceuta in order to more effectively patrol the border with Morocco after thousands of migrants swam into the northern African enclave.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez proclaimed in a televised statement that his government is "going to restore order to the city and its borders," while also promising to remove all who entered illegally as he described this sudden surge of migrants as a serious crisis for Spain and for Europe.
Kelly M. Greenhill, writing for the Washington Post, suggests that in this unfolding episode, Morocco appears to be weaponizing migration to achieve its political goals. And this practice, she notes, is nothing new. Governments or other international actors “weaponize migration” by manipulating or exploiting the movement of people — or by threatening to do so — for the purpose of achieving a strategic objective.
She says that Morocco unleashed a migrant surge on Spain in retaliation for Spain’s decision to medically admit Brahim Ghali, leader of the Polisario Front — a separatist movement battling Morocco for Western Saharan independence. In her view, Morocco’s actions involved “coercive engineered migration,” and her research suggests that more than 60 percent of all such operations she studied were carried out for political reasons.
Read more about this story here.
Russian Upper House Votes to Exit Open Skies Treaty
Last month I wrote about the vote on exiting the Open Skies Treaty which passed in the Russian parliament’s lower house. This Wednesday, the Russian parliament’s upper house voted to withdraw from the international treaty allowing surveillance flights over military facilities following the U.S. exit from the treaty.
The vote comes after U.S. officials told Moscow last month that President Joe Biden’s administration had decided not to re-enter the Open Skies Treaty, which had allowed surveillance flights over military facilities before President Donald Trump withdrew from the pact.
As the Russian upper house has now voted to leave the treaty it will come to Russian President Vladimir Putin for signing off the exit. If Putin endorses the exit, the withdrawal would take effect in six months, and this time period coincides with the Putin and Biden summit in Geneva on June 16. This will perhaps be the last chance for the accord’s more than three dozen signatories to conduct reconnaissance flights over each other’s territories.
Read more about this story here.