In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, October 12th
Parties to the GERD Dispute Court Brazil for UN Backing and Russia Rules Out Support for US Military Presence in Central Asia
Parties to the GERD Dispute Court Brazil for UN Backing
The election held at the 75th session of the General Assembly saw Brazil win a seat as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for the 2022-2023 term. Brazil's accession to the non-permanent membership of the UN Security Council for the coming year has attracted the attention of the three main parties embroiled in the ongoing Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) dispute — Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Each party to the GERD dispute is seeking to bolster ties with Brazil in an effort to gain the upper hand in the international row.
Of the three, Egypt has been perhaps the most active in this regard. During a recent visit by Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourao to Cairo in September, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi discussed the latest developments surrounding the GERD crisis. Mourao is said to have expressed an understanding of Egypt’s position in the dispute, recognising the critical role of the Nile River to Egypt’s water and food security. For Egypt, the importance of securing international support cannot be understated, and Cairo hopes to win over influential actors such as Brazil in anticipation of an escalation in the GERD dispute.
But Cairo is not alone in recognising that a diplomatic resolution to the dispute will require intervention from outside powers. Both Sudan and Ethiopia are also looking to improve ties with Brazil. Sudan has tried to facilitate investment from Brazil in agriculture, animal wealth, aviation and information technology. And Ethiopia too has made overtures to Brazil. In May, Ethiopia and Brazil held a joint political summit during which Ethiopian officials touted their countries readiness to cooperate with Brazil across a range of fields. But with little progress in resolving the GERD dispute regionally, Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia are increasingly looking to the involvement of the UN Security Council.
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Russia Rules Out Support for US Military Presence in Central Asia
Russia has reaffirmed its opposition to any potential US military presence in Central Asia. While previous reports suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin was open to the idea of hosting US forces within Russian bases in Central Asia, a recent meeting between Russian and US officials seems to have confirmed the rumours as unfounded, and that Russia is in firm opposition to any such plan.
US Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland arrived in Moscow on a three-day visit for talks that were said to focus on a range of bilateral, regional, and global issues. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, whom Nuland met in person, said their meeting touched on arms control negotiations and the situation in Afghanistan as well, with strategic stability at the forefront of the agenda. Ryabkov expressed particular concern about the potential fallout from the recently formed AUKUS initiative, emphasizing that Russia will look to explore how this new alliance structure will affect nuclear non-proliferation regimes.
When discussions turned to the topic of Afghanistan, Ryabkov ruled out any possibility of Russia hosting US troops on its military bases in Central Asia. He is quoted as saying that the he sought to make it clear to Washington that an American military presence in Central Asia is unacceptable to Moscow. Disagreements between the two sides were also evident in discussions over the restoration of diplomatic staff, where there seems little room for optimism in the near-term because neither side appears willing to restore the number of diplomatic staff to the levels they were just a few years ago. On the whole, the meeting brought no concrete changes to the chilly relationship between the two sides, with any positive breakthrough in relations unlikely without a higher-level meeting.
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