In Geopolitics Today - Wednesday, November 10th
Ethiopia Counts on Chinese Arms to Turn the Tide Against Rebels and Cuba Accuses the US of Destabilisation Efforts
Ethiopia Counts on Chinese Arms to Turn the Tide Against Rebels
The conflict raging within Ethiopia is illustrating the power of cheap drones and ballistic missiles. Not long ago, only advanced and well-equipped militaries could boast of an arsenal of capable weapons of this kind, but as the technologies mature these weapons of war are increasingly being exported to affect the outcomes of conflicts abroad. The complex civil war raging in Ethiopia is no exception, as both Tigrayan and Ethiopian armed forces are relying on autonomous weapons systems to achieve goals on the ground.
Until recently, most of the heavy weapons making up the arsenal of the Ethiopian National Defense Force were either Soviet-era T-72 tanks or Su-27 and MiG-23 fighter jets. But as both rebel and government forces seek to minimise the costs associated with their respective military operations, each is increasingly turning to combat drones and missiles as a more affordable means of achieving military objectives. This is largely because drones provide a more deniable and cost-efficient form of airpower, while missile artillery allows strikes to be conducted from far beyond the frontlines. Moreover, outside powers are all too willing to sell these weapons to other states as they not only have the power to sway the outcome of conflicts on top of the financial benefits arising from such arms deals, but also — as in the case of the conflict in Ethiopia — enable arms exporters to see their military technologies tested in real combat scenarios.
The escalating conflict in Ethiopia is now a proving ground of sorts, with long-distance attacks by advanced missile, drone and artillery systems seeing common use. Over the last year, Ethiopia has begun acquiring Mohajer-6 drones from Iran, while more recent reports have indicated that Chinese-made Wing Loong I drones are now also a part of the arsenal used by the Ethiopian forces. There are now indications that Addis Ababa has sought out around 50 TL-2 air-to-ground missiles, with reports suggesting a first batch has already arrived in Ethiopia early this month. As Tigrayan forces continue to make gains against government positions, Addis Ababa is increasingly desperate for a way to counter their advance, and these sophisticated TL-2 missiles delivered from Wing Loong I drones may be one way the rebel advance could be reversed.
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Cuba Accuses the US of Destabilisation Efforts
As the Cuban government prepares to relieve restrictions imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, officials in Havana have accused the United States of preparing a destabilisation campaign across the country. In response to these activities, the Cuban Foreign Ministry has summoned foreign diplomats to a meeting in which Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez condemned the interference of US actors in the country's internal affairs, and accused the US government of instigating a planned demonstration.
Cuban officials insist that the US embassy in Havana is conducting subversive activities aimed at undermining the political system in Cuba, stating that US diplomats are meeting with opponents of the Cuban government and providing them with technical and financial support. Rodriguez decried repeated statements made by US officials over recent weeks, claiming they are aimed at “encouraging, guiding, instigating destabilization actions in our country.” But the United States sees things differently, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken making clear that the US will continue to “condemn the repression of human rights on the island.” US President Joe Biden has emphasised that his government is taking “concerted action” in order to “bolster the cause of the Cuban people” when speaking to Cuban Americans earlier this year.
Cuba has been under a strict US-imposed blockade since 1962, when President John F. Kennedy implemented harsh measures aimed at isolating the country following the failed Bay of Pigs invasion a year earlier. As a result of this long-held US policy, Cuba has for long struggled with food and medicine shortages, and the country’s economy effectively barred from conducting regional trade as a result of US pressure. Particularly damaging to the Cuban economy has been the Cuban Democracy Act of 1992 and the Helms-Burton Act, with both working to constrain Cuban economic activity by restricting the import of Cuban goods into the US and by punishing any third party wishing to conduct trade with Cuba via sanctions. Going forward, the probability of any change in relations between the two is very low, with international efforts to lift the blockade via the UN routinely blocked by both the United States and its ally Israel.
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