In Geopolitics This Week
Puntland Withdraws from Somalia's Federal System, Asia's Partnerships in a Time of Flux, The Moon as the Next Frontier of Geopolitical Competition, and other stories.
Puntland Withdraws from Somalia's Federal System
Puntland, a semi-autonomous region in northeastern Somalia, has announced its decision to withdraw from the country's federal system. This comes as a response to the recent constitutional amendments passed by the federal parliament in Mogadishu, which Puntland's leaders have rejected. Puntland's leaders have cited a range of grievances, including a lack of representation in the federal government, insufficient resource sharing, and concerns over the centralization of power in Mogadishu, as reasons for their decision.
Puntland's decision has implications not only for Somalia's internal stability but also for the Horn of Africa. The withdrawal of Puntland, which has long maintained a degree of autonomy, could embolden other regions to follow suit, leading to a further fragmentation of the Somali state. This internal instability creates new opportunities for external actors, including neighbouring states and great powers, to exert influence and advance their own interests in the Horn of Africa. As competing powers seek to fill the vacuum left by a weakened central government, the risk of proxy conflicts and regional rivalries escalating increases.
One of the key players to watch in this context is the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has sought to expand its influence in the region through a combination of economic investments, military cooperation, and political alliances. In recent years, the UAE has invested heavily in the development of ports and other infrastructure projects in Puntland and the neighbouring self-declared republic of Somaliland. The UAE's strained relations with Mogadishu, particularly following the federal government's rapprochement with Turkey, could provide further incentive for Abu Dhabi to deepen its engagement with Puntland and other regions as a means of undermining the federal government.
Another important factor is the growing competition between Turkey and the UAE in the Horn of Africa. Turkey has emerged as a key ally of the federal government in Mogadishu, providing significant military, economic, and political support in recent years. A recent defence and economic cooperation agreement signed between them committed both countries to enhanced collaboration in areas such as counterterrorism, military training, and infrastructure development. This agreement is part of a broader effort by Turkey to counter the UAE's growing influence and to shore up the position of the federal government. However, Puntland's withdrawal from the federal system could complicate this dynamic, as it may force Turkey to choose between supporting its ally in Mogadishu and engaging with other regional actors.
Asia's Partnerships in a Time of Flux
Nations across Asia are recalibrating their strategic partnerships. From the newly forged partnership between South Korea and the United Kingdom to Belarus's pragmatic outreach to India and Mongolia, the week's developments highlight the fluid nature of alliances in the region. These shifts are driven by a range of factors, including the evolving US-China rivalry, the impact of US sanctions, and the pursuit of economic goals. As countries seek to balance competing pressures and safeguard their perceived national interests, the resulting web of partnerships and alignments is becoming increasingly dynamic.
The South Korea-UK partnership reflects a growing alignment between two advanced economies with complementary strengths and shared interests. South Korea, a global leader in technology and innovation, brings cutting-edge capabilities in fields such as semiconductors, electronics, and 5G telecommunications. The UK, meanwhile, offers expertise in areas such as finance, professional services, intelligence, and scientific research. Both countries are also major investors in each other's economies, with significant potential for further growth and collaboration. South Korea and the UK rely heavily on open and stable global trade routes, primarily secured by the US Navy, to export their goods and services to markets around the world.
Meanwhile, Belarus has made diplomatic overtures to India and Mongolia in an apparent effort to diversify its economic partnerships and mitigate the impact of sanctions. By prioritizing pragmatic engagement with emerging markets, Minsk aims to offset its dependence on Russia and chart a path forward in a challenging international environment. Foreign Minister Sergei Aleinik's recent visits to New Delhi and Ulaanbaatar, which focused on expanding trade, investment, and technological cooperation in sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure, reflect Belarus's non-ideological approach to foreign policy. The country sees India's large market and growing influence as key opportunities, while bilateral trade facilitation was high on the agenda in Mongolia.
India, for its part, finds itself grappling with a balancing act as it seeks to manage an array of strategic partnerships and vulnerabilities. A recent assessment by External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar illustrates the complex calculus involved, as New Delhi weighs the benefits of closer alignment with the US and its allies against the risks of alienating its traditional partners. India has begun a strategic partnership with the United States, driven by the recognition of Washington's unparalleled global influence and the need for support in managing border tensions with China. However, this tilt has introduced new challenges, including uncertainties around the future of India's defence partnership with Russia, the implications of Russia's growing ties with China, and the potential limitations of new partners like the US and Israel.
Lastly, the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey offers a glimpse into the evolving perceptions of Southeast Asian nations as they navigate the US-China rivalry. The findings suggest a growing inclination towards China in some countries, tempered by a broader desire to maintain strategic autonomy and regional cohesion. The survey found that 50.5% would choose China if forced to pick sides, with this shift particularly evident in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Laos. However, the survey also highlights that most Southeast Asians prefer not to choose sides, with 46.8% emphasizing the need for ASEAN to prioritize its resilience and unity.
The Moon as the Next Frontier of Geopolitical Competition
The Moon is becoming a new arena for geopolitical competition as nations vie for access to its resources and strategic potential. China's International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) and the US-led Artemis Accords represent competing visions for the future of lunar exploration and development. The ILRS aims to establish a long-term presence on the Moon, with a focus on resource exploration and utilization. As more nations, such as Thailand, join the project, it is shaping up as a potential counterweight to the Artemis Accords.
The United States, as the premier space-faring power, also has ambitious plans for the Moon. This year, US astronauts are set to take their first steps near the Moon's South Pole as part of NASA's Artemis program. This region is of particular interest due to its unique combination of extreme light, extreme darkness, and the presence of frozen water, which could be used to sustain a lunar base and support deep space missions. The Artemis program aims to establish a sustainable presence on the Moon, with the ultimate goal of using it as a launching pad for future missions to Mars and beyond. The US sees the Moon not just as a destination in itself, but as a crucial stepping stone in its long-term space strategy.
The ILRS, meanwhile, represents China's growing ambitions in space and its desire to assert itself as a major player in the emerging lunar economy. By focusing on resource exploration and utilization, the ILRS aims to lay the groundwork for a long-term Chinese presence on the Moon. The project has already attracted interest from a number of countries, including Russia and Pakistan, and is likely to continue growing in the coming years. As China continues to invest in its space capabilities and infrastructure, the ILRS is likely to become an increasingly important component of its broader strategy to establish itself as a leading space power and shape the future of lunar exploration.
The Moon's strategic location, just 384,400 km from Earth, makes it an excellent place from which to influence or even dominate our planet. A lunar base could serve as a platform for a range of military and intelligence activities, from surveillance to the deployment of weapons systems. The ability to monitor and control cis lunar space would be of particular strategic value. However, the dual-use nature of many space technologies and lack of international frameworks governing state behaviour raise the risk of an arms race in this domain.
Monday, April 1st
Israel Strikes Iranian Consulate in Damascus — Al Jazeera
UAE's Acquires Stake in Zambia's Mopani Copper Mine — Financial Times
Bulgaria and Romania Partially Join Schengen Area — AP News
Baltimore Bridge Collapse Disrupts US Coal Exports and Military Sealift — TWZ
Houthis Threaten Attacks on Saudi Arabia — Oil Price
Puntland Withdraws from Somalia's Federal System — Jurist
Tuesday, April 2nd
Russian Crude Flows Resume to India Despite Sanctions — Oil Price
Seoul and London Forge a Strategic Partnership — RUSI
Belarus Turns to India and Mongolia as Sanctions Bite — Jamestown
UNRWA on the Brink — Responsible Statecraft
A Glimpse of Southeast Asia's Shifting Allegiances — Nikkei
The Moon as a New Geopolitical Frontier — Geopolitical Futures
Wednesday, April 3rd
NATO Moves Toward Long-Term Ukraine Support — Al Jazeera
US Casts Doubt on Binding Nature of Gaza Ceasefire Resolution — Responsible Statecraft
India Balancing Strategic Partnerships and Vulnerabilities — Asia Times
Ukraine's Power Grid Battered by Russian Strikes — Oil Price
Limits to Deterring Non-State Armed Groups — IISS
Georgia-Ukraine Relations Hit New Low — Jamestown
Thursday, April 4th
Iraq Blames IOCs for Ongoing Kurdish Oil Embargo — Oil Price
Turkey and Iran Deepen Energy Ties — Al-Monitor
Danish Strait Closed After Naval Missile Malfunction — TWZ
Somalia Expels Ethiopian Envoy — Al Jazeera
EAEU Expansion Efforts Face Headwinds — Jamestown
US Grapples with Fiscal Constraints as Defence Needs Rise — Stratfor
Friday, April 5th
Spain Emerges as Vocal Critic of Israel's Offensive — France 24
Mongolia and the UK in Talks to Establish Rare-Earth Export Corridor — Jamestown
Pakistan and Afghanistan Prioritize Trade Despite Tensions — Nikkei
Iran Navigates Shifting Alliances in the Caucasus — Eurasianet
Moldova Emerges as a Potential Flashpoint — Weapons and Strategy
Thailand Joins China-led International Lunar Research Station Project — Space News
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