In Geopolitics This Week
Russia Issues Follow-up Questions to NATO and the OSCE, Surge in Cyberattacks on Infrastructure in Europe, US Reinforces Allies in the Middle East , and other stories.
Russia Issues Follow-up Questions to NATO and the OSCE
On a recent visit to Hungary, Russian President Vladimir Putin openly admitted that the United States and its allies have failed to satisfy two of Russia's key demands on European security guarantees. While Russian statements have clarified that Putin has now read the counterproposals presented by the US (of which the Spanish publication EL PAÍS released an unconfirmed leaked copy), a formal response has not been delivered by Moscow as Russian officials continue to analyse them.
In the meantime, Russia has sent follow-up questions on some of the wording present in the counterproposals delivered by the US, seeking to raise and clarify the ‘indivisible security’ principle employed in established security frameworks. The indivisible security principle was first established in the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, and can be surmised as the freedom for any state to choose its own security arrangements as long as such moves do not come “at the expense of the security of other states.” Since then, the indivisible security principle has been present in numerous international treaties such as the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act or the 1990 Charter of Paris.
However, the concept contradicts notions of collective security established within the NATO and OSCE frameworks, particularly in the case of increased NATO military involvement in Ukraine. The international system cannot rely on both collective security and indivisible security interpretations when navigating the legal framework for the future of European security. This presents a pressing need for a middle-ground approach in order to avoid the cultivation of two vastly different, mutually exclusive interpretations of European security by both Moscow and Washington that would inevitably lead to more conflict.
Surge in Cyberattacks on Infrastructure in Europe
A sudden rise in major cyberattacks on infrastructure is taking place across Europe. Major oil transport and storage infrastructure in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands was disabled by cyberattacks last weekend while Belarus’ railway infrastructure was inoperable due to a major ransomware attack. With Energy prices across Europe soaring, cyberattacks on oil infrastructure present a serious issue that could worsen an already tense situation.
Multiple European oil transport and storage companies said cyberattacks have targeted key facilities last weekend as they struggle to bring the systems back online. Reports suggest IT systems in dozens of oil terminals have been disrupted at Oiltanking in Germany, SEA-Invest in Belgium and Evos in the Netherlands. As the price of oil is on the rise, it appears that all three companies’ IT systems were crippled or severely disrupted during the attack, and no actors have yet claimed responsibility for the attack. The two German oil logistics firms struck by ransomware — Oiltanking GmbH Group and Mabanaft Group — were forced to declare force majeure, a legal clause evoked when companies are unable to fulfil elements of their contractual obligations. The Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp oil hub is reportedly of those worst affected by the attacks and a preliminary report from German security services has identified BlackCat ransomware as the a software tool utilized in the cyberattack in Germany.
The cyberattack targeting Belarus’ railway infrastructure on Monday affected a significant part of railway operations across Belarus, including ticketing, scheduling and freight deliveries. The scope, precision and timing of the cyberattack implies a relatively sophisticated and targeted cyber operation, striking state-operated railway infrastructure across multiple systems throughout the country while leaving other institutions and industries untouched. The cyberattack struck railway systems just as Russian military trains loaded with equipment and troops were arriving in Belarus for joint strategic exercises with Russia. Belarus last month branded the group of hackers as a terrorist organization.
US Reinforces Allies in the Middle East
The United States has sought to reinforce its allies in the Middle East in a series of arms deals and military deployments. This week US President Joe Biden hosted the emir of Qatar at the White House, hoping to sway Sheikh Tamim into diverting Qatari natural gas supplies to Europe. Biden has now notified Congress of his decision to designate Qatar as a major non-NATO ally. If confirmed, Qatar would become only the third country in the Gulf region to become a US major non-NATO ally after Kuwait and Bahrain.
Elsewhere in the region, the US State Department has approved a series of arms sales to its Middle East allies Jordan, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia. The approvals include the sale of 16 F-16 fighter jets in two variants and related equipment to Jordan worth an estimated $4.21 billion. Saudi Arabia is expected to bolster the radar capabilities of its air defence systems by purchasing 31 communications terminals worth roughly $23.7 million, which will link air, ground and maritime channels to improve coordination in operations. The UAE has received preliminary approval to purchase $65m worth of spare and repair parts for its all US-made missile defence systems in service. The region has seen a 28 percent increase in US arms purchases between 2016 and 2020 as US exports to Israel increased by 335 percent, Qatar by 208 percent and Saudi Arabia by 175 percent.
Similarly, Washington is working to strengthen the military capabilities of its allies in the Middle East by sending a contingent of its own fighter aircraft and a destroyer to assist armed forces of the UAE. Washington will deploy the guided missile destroyer USS Cole and an unspecified number of fifth-generation F-35 fighter aircraft to help in the defence of the United Arab Emirates after a series of missile attacks have exposed weaknesses in UAE defences. Abu Dhabi is a critical part of the Saudi-led and US-supported coalition fighting Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and has sought out Washington’s help after the country suffered its third missile attack in three weeks. US arms exports to the Middle East have increased in recent years.