In Geopolitics This Week
Trilateral Summit Strengthens US-Japan-Philippines Cooperation, Ukraine Air Defence Shortage Threatens Infrastructure, Mexico Severs Ties with Ecuador Over Embassy Raid, and other stories.
Trilateral Summit Strengthens US-Japan-Philippines Cooperation
On April 11, US President Joe Biden hosted Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the White House for the first-ever trilateral summit between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines. The high-level meeting aimed to strengthen economic and security cooperation among the three nations, signalling growing alignment on China.
Recent incidents in the contested Spratly Islands, which are claimed by both China and the Philippines, among others, have heightened concerns about the potential for conflict. The meeting sought to address these challenges by bolstering the Philippines' capacity to defend its maritime claims. This involved the three powers adopting plans for joint coast guard patrols, the establishment of an assistance hub, and the development of infrastructure projects under the US-led Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment. These initiatives aim to enhance the Philippines' maritime domain awareness, response capabilities, and overall resilience in the face of Chinese coercion, while also promoting greater interoperability and coordination among the three partners.
The growing cooperation between the US, Japan, and the Philippines reflects a complex interplay of historical alliances, shared strategic interests, and shifting power dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. The US-Japan alliance, in particular, has emerged as a key driver of the trilateral partnership. Japan, under the leadership of former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo and his successors, has embraced a more proactive role in shaping the regional order through the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy. To support this vision, Japan has undertaken changes in its defence policy, including plans to nearly double its defence spending by 2027 and acquire new capabilities such as long-range precision strike missiles.
Ukraine Air Defence Shortage Threatens Infrastructure
Ukraine is grappling with a severe shortage of air defence missiles that threatens to undermine its ability to protect critical infrastructure and maintain battlefield momentum. The gravity of the situation was highlighted this week by President Zelenskiy's warning of depleted missile stocks, while a barrage of Russian aerial strikes inflicted widespread damage on Ukraine's energy sector.
The attacks, which included the destruction of the crucial Trypillia Thermal Power Plant and strikes against DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy firm, are part of an apparent Russian strategic shift to systematically cripple Ukraine's electricity grid. As Ukraine's power infrastructure degrades due to severe damage to turbine rooms and other key components, the cumulative impact threatens to create an electricity shortfall in the coming months. Ukraine's state energy company Centrenergo has confirmed a total loss of generating capacity.
As Ukraine's air defence requirements escalate, the United States and its NATO allies are confronting challenges in providing sustainable support. Germany's decision to deliver a Patriot system comes at a crucial time, and it will be the third such system provided by Germany, in addition to other air defence systems already delivered. Similarly, the US is rushing to refurbish and repair previously supplied HAWK missile batteries in a $138 million emergency sale. But despite these efforts, Ukraine still faces a critical deficit in air defence capabilities, leaving key infrastructure and battlefield positions exposed.
The growing strain on limited missile inventories and the uneven distribution of costs and risks among partners raises questions about the long-term sustainability of NATO’s current approach to supporting Ukraine's defence. As the war grinds on, allies may be forced to make difficult prioritization decisions, balancing Ukraine's immediate needs against their own security imperatives and defence industrial capacity. The ability of Ukraine's backers to keep pace with its extensive matériel requirements will be a key determinant of whether Ukraine's armed forces maintain the ability to resist Russian pressure along the line of contact.
Mexico Severs Ties with Ecuador Over Embassy Raid
Mexico has severed diplomatic ties with Ecuador after Ecuadorian police stormed the Mexican Embassy in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, who had been granted asylum. The April 5 raid has ignited a major diplomatic crisis, with Mexico denouncing the move as a flagrant violation of the Vienna Convention on Consular Relations and taken the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
The embassy raid has exposed deep tensions between the two nations, exacerbated by Mexico's criticism of the election that brought Ecuador's President Noboa to power. Ecuador has defended the move, claiming that Glas posed a flight risk, but other powers widely condemned the assault. Nicaragua joined Mexico in severing ties with Ecuador, while other Latin American states and the United States have denounced the incident to varying degrees. For most countries, the crisis threatens to set a dangerous precedent of disregard for long-standing diplomatic protections., with the raid raising concerns about Ecuador's commitment to international legal obligations.
Mexico has already formally submitted proceedings against Ecuador in the ICJ, arguing that the embassy raid violated Mexico's rights under customary and conventional international law. Mexico contends that Ecuador should be suspended from the United Nations as a consequence of its actions. However, such a move is exceedingly rare, requiring either a two-thirds majority vote in the UN General Assembly or a recommendation by the UN Security Council. Nevertheless, the ICJ case itself is likely to be a lengthy and complex process. While Mexico has framed the incident as a clear violation of the Vienna Convention and an assault on its sovereignty, Ecuador has sought to justify its actions by portraying Glas as a fugitive from justice.
As the diplomatic crisis deepens, it threatens to further strain relations between Mexico and Ecuador. While the international community has largely rallied behind Mexico in condemning Ecuador's actions, the prospects for a swift and satisfactory resolution remain uncertain, given the political divides at play. The crisis has exposed the limits of regional mechanisms like CELAC in mediating conflicts and holding member states accountable for violations of international law. For some states, it may also highlight the need for stronger multilateral frameworks and enforcement mechanisms to safeguard the integrity of diplomatic missions.
Monday, April 8th
Mexico Cuts Ties with Ecuador After Embassy Raid — MercoPress
Azerbaijan Pivots to Central Asia — RUSI
Russia Sees Opportunity in Africa's Growing Nuclear Energy Demand — Oil Price
Ethiopia Faces Mounting Crises — Foreign Affairs
Russia Seeks Petrol Reserves from Kazakhstan — Reuters
Taiwan Accelerates Unmanned Surface Vessel Production — Asia Times
Tuesday, April 9th
Turkey Restricts Exports to Israel — Oil Price
Hezbollah Threatens Intervention in Potential Iran-Israel War — Responsible Statecraft
EU and US Deepen Support for Armenia's Western Shift — Eurasianet
Iraq Works to Revive Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline — Al Arabiya
Ukraine's Air Defence Challenges Strain Alliance Cohesion — Reuters
Indonesia Signs $2 Billion Deal for French Scorpene Submarines — The Diplomat
Wednesday, April 10th
Algeria Restores Diplomatic Ties with Spain — The New Arab
Mali Suspends Political Activities Amid Clashes with Tuareg Rebels — Reuters
Europe's Dilemma in Balancing Interests and Risks over Taiwan — War on the Rocks
Competing Diplomatic Initiatives as US-China Rivalry Intensifies — Responsible Statecraft
Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan Streamline Trade Customs — Eurasianet
US Rushes HAWK System Repairs to Ukraine — Asia Times
Thursday, April 11th
Uzbekistan and China Strengthen Security and Economic Ties — Eurasianet
Russia Unleashes Mass Strikes on Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure — UPI
US and Japan Announce Upgrade to Alliance and Defence Cooperation — Defense News
NATO Regulatory Hurdles in Fielding UAV Strike Capabilities — RUSI
Uruguay and US to Deepen Cooperation on Emerging Technologies — MercoPress
China's Sinochem Completes First Blockchain-Based Petrol Export — Oil Price
Friday, April 12th
US, Japan, Philippines Hold First Trilateral Summit to Counter China — Nikkei
Kenya Proposes Regional Maritime Treaty to Defuse Tensions — Reuters
Global Fertility Rates Plummet — Asia Times
Russian Military Trainers Arrive in Niger to Deepen Security Ties — Jamestown
Myanmar's Karen Rebels Seize Key Border Town — The Diplomat
Central Asia Doubles Down on Coal — Eurasianet
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