In Geopolitics This Week
France to Redefine its Strategy in West and Central Africa, Progress in Talks Between Russia and Ukraine to Ease Blockade, US President Visits the Middle East to Strengthen Ties, and other stories.
France to Redefine its Strategy in West and Central Africa
After experiencing a series of military setbacks in the Sahel, France is looking to redefine its role in the region by repositioning its forces. French troops are already withdrawing from Mali, and a number of other French deployments in coastal West African states are increasingly under threat. With French bases and outposts coming under threat, French officials are visiting Niger to negotiate and implement the country’s new strategy to fight armed groups in the Sahel.
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu arrived in Niamey this week to discuss the new French military posture in more detail with Nigerien officials. Rising violence, armed conflict and instability in the Franc Zone threaten French financial and trade interests, and the loss of military basing rights in Mali also limits the reach of France’s hard power. This has prompted French President Emmanuel Macron to push for a rethink of the entire French military posture on the African continent.
France wields a level of influence in sub-Saharan Africa that it cannot command anywhere else in the world. In crisis situations, France is still seen as the principal source of diplomatic, military and financial power by countries in the region. Yet recent coups in Burkina Faso, Chad and Mali against pro-French leaders have weakened France’s position in its former African colonies. French losses have worked to embolden a number of different armed groups, who now control large swathes of desert in Mali and elsewhere across the Sahel, terrain that is difficult for French forces to establish control over with a limited number of troops and poor logistical support.
With few political or military victories in the Sahel in recent years, France is now looking to restructure its military mission in Africa. Niger has emerged as a geographically feasible alternative to Mali, and may come to be the focal point of France’s military posture in Africa in its fight against insurgents and rebel groups across West and Central Africa. Some 300-400 French troops are to be based in Niger for special operations in the border regions with Burkina Faso and Mali, while another 700-1,000 are be based in Chad. France currently has an estimated 5,100 troops in the Sahel region, while under the new plan this would fall to somewhere between 2,500 and 3,000.
Progress in Talks Between Russia and Ukraine to Ease Blockade
Remarks made by Turkish officials indicate that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a deal in principle that will allow for the export of blockaded grain from the Black Sea. Ukraine and Russia are both vital exporters of wheat and grain, and together provide an estimated 30 percent of the global wheat and grain supply. Turkey made the announcement after talks were held in Istanbul with representatives from Turkey, the United Nations, Russia and Ukraine.
Turkey's defence minister said the two sides agreed to form a coordination centre that will oversee joint controls overseeing vessels entering and leaving ports, with both Russia and Ukraine involved in ensuring navigational safety of shipping routes for all commercial vessels. Although an agreement has not yet been signed, it is significant that the two belligerents have reached consensus on the main technical aspects: joint controls at the points of departure and arrival of ships in ports and security guarantees over the the maritime space. The Russian and Ukrainian delegations have agreed to meet next week in Turkey, where the objective will be to finalise details and sign an agreement.
Before then, however, the issue is sure to come up at a trilateral summit taking place on the 19th of July between the leaders of Iran, Russia and Turkey. The Astana Summit, taking place in Tehran, will bring together Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan with his Russian and Iranian counterparts: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The summit promises to be the first in-person meeting between Erdogan and Putin since the war in Ukraine broke out in late February, and the meeting between these three regional powers may prove consequential in determining the outcome of any agreement that lifts the blockade on Ukraine’s still-unoccupied ports.
US President Visits the Middle East to Strengthen Ties
US President Joe Biden and other US officials travelled to the Middle East to strengthen bilateral ties and build consensus on regional security issues. Washington is aiming for a full reset of the US-Saudi relationship after years of strained ties in order to get Saudi Arabia to increase oil production. Biden’s visit to the region started off with an Israeli tour of the Iron Dome anti-missile defence system and the Iron Beam Laser aerial defence system.
In Israel, leaders from both countries signed a bilateral strategic partnership agreement. As part of the agreement, both powers reiterated anti-Iran positions and committed to preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. While Iran denies that its nuclear program is military and has stated that its nuclear pursuits are solely intended to meet the country’s energy needs, Israeli and the US officials have long rejected this line of reasoning.
The agreement will see Washington uphold its intention to utilise “all elements in its national power” to stop Iranian efforts at increasing uranium enrichment. In addition, the joint declaration included a pledge by the US to continue transfers of military equipment to Israel in the years ahead. The two countries also agreed to jointly combat political efforts which undermine Israeli legitimacy and sovereignty, with the Palestinian-led Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement named as one of the key targets.
Following his visit to Israel, Biden briefly stopped at the West Bank before heading to Jeddah in Saudi Arabia. In Jeddah, he met with Arab leaders at a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The six leaders from the GCC — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman and the United Arab Emirates — were joined by leaders from Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq to discuss regional security and bilateral relations with Biden. President Biden made a promise that the US would stay engaged in the region, and vowed not to leave a power vacuum that could be filled by China, Iran or Russia.
Biden’s visit to the region comes as simultaneous energy and food crises are threatening instability in the Middle East and elsewhere. One of the key goals of the trip for his administration is said to be to achieve a reset in bilateral ties with Riyadh and convince Saudi leaders to break with the production levels they agreed with other members of the OPEC+ alliance.
Seemingly acquiescing to Washington’s desire for an increase in Saudi oil exports, Saudi Arabia’s crown prince said his country would agree to increase oil exports, but warned that Saudi Arabia would be unable to increase output any further. In any case, while the Biden administration may manage to persuade Riyadh to export more oil as a way to drive down prices and reduce Russian oil revenues, Saudi Arabia could simply free up its own oil products for export and still use discounted Russian oil to meet domestic needs.