In Geopolitics This Week
Crashed F-35 Spurs Speculation Over Race to Salvage the Aircraft, Military Coup in Burkina Faso Results in ECOWAS Suspension, US Responds to Russian Proposals on European Security, and other stories.
Crashed F-35 Spurs Speculation Over Race to Salvage the Aircraft
An F-35C fighter jet operated by the United States Navy has crashed into the South China Sea following a botched landing on the deck of an aircraft carrier. The US has intensified naval drills in the South China Sea recently as Washington seeks to challenge China’s expanding maritime activities in its littoral waters. A statement released provided little information about the condition of the F-35C aircraft and the damage sustained by the USS Carl Vinson from which the aircraft was operating. The incident resulted in injuries to seven sailors, including the pilot, and a scramble to salvage the advanced fighter aircraft from the very shallow South China Sea.
The exact location of the mishap is unknown, and the location of the crashed F-35 aircraft will indicate the kind of salvage operation the US will undertake. The fact that the fighter jet reportedly impacted the carrier deck before falling into the water suggests the aircraft remains largely intact. The US Navy is now trying to recover the remnants of the crashed F-35C, which is widely considered among the most advanced military aircraft in the world, before China is able to do so. While there has been no indication that Beijing is racing to salvage the aircraft, the close proximity of the incident to China’s own naval forces may complicate US salvage operations if Beijing chooses to attempt a salvage operation of its own.
The US presently faces the challenge of recovering its technology by pulling the aircraft out of contested waters in the South China Sea, while at the same time making sure no other power manages to get their hands on the plane. While the incident appears to be unrelated to a technical failure, the fact such an advanced and expensive aircraft has been involved in a crash is concerning. This is the second crash of an F-35 in a matter of months, as last November a British F-35 crashed into the Mediterranean Sea during what were described as routine flying operations from the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth. F-35 fighters vary in price, but an F-35C has an estimated $135 million dollars. The F-35 program overseen by Congress has been notoriously costly, with the program falling under intense scrutiny due to rising production, maintenance and operating costs.
Military Coup in Burkina Faso Results in ECOWAS Suspension
A coup has taken place in Burkina Faso in which mutineers have deposed the sitting government and assumed control of the country. Burkina Faso’s army announced that it has deposed President Roch Kabore, suspended the country’s constitution, dissolved the current government and the national assembly, and shut down the country’s borders as they assume power. Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba is believed to be the coup leader.
The announcement said the takeover had been carried out without violence and that the now former government officials taken in custody were in a secure location. In justifying the coup, military leaders cited the deterioration of the security situation in the country, and went on to blame Kabore for his inability to unite the country. In response to the coup, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has chosen to suspend Burkina Faso from the organization. The regional bloc held a virtual meeting to discuss the situation in the wake of the takeover, and decided to suspend Burkina Faso’s membership without applying additional sanctions. Burkina Faso is now the third country in West Africa which has been suspended by ECOWAS in under two years.
Before the ECOWAS meeting was held, the new leadership in Burkina Faso asked the regional block to spare the country from political and economic sanctions, arguing that doing so will exacerbate the severe problems faced by the country’s population. At the virtual meeting, leaders from ECOWAS member states condemned the coup and accused the military of forcing the former president to resign “under threat, intimidation and pressure.” ECOWAS jointly called for the former president and other officials from the previous administration to be released and reinstated. The group of military officers behind Burkina Faso’s takeover have yet to detailed their plans for a transitional government, stating that they would propose a timeline within a “reasonable time frame.” The landlocked country is one of West Africa’s poorest despite being a major gold producer. Gold makes up roughly 77% of the country’s entire export portfolio, the vast majority of which is bought by Switzerland.
US Responds to Russian Proposals on European Security
The United States and its NATO allies have issued a written reply in response to Russian demands regarding European security, firmly rejecting any concessions on Moscow’s main points. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken dismissed Russia’s main demand to cease NATO expansion, stating that there will be “no change” to US-NATO plans to integrate Ukraine and Georgia into the military bloc. Blinken went on to say that allied deployments of troops and military equipment to Eastern Europe are non-negotiable.
Russian officials have offered some initial thoughts via statements which signal that Russia is not terribly thrilled about the response to their proposal. Russian government spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that “there always are prospects for continuing a dialogue,” so it’s possible the Russians have found, or will find on further review, some element within the Western responses that could offer a basis for further negotiations. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov admitted that the US response did contain some elements that could lead to “serious” discussions on secondary issues going forward, and he emphasised that the document was lacking a “positive response on the main issue.”
While reports indicate that the US has not provided any concessions on Russia’s key demands, the content of Washington’s response to Moscow remains secret as Washington has reportedly asked Moscow to not publish the document in the spirit of maintaining “confidential” discussions. Russia must now decide how it will respond to Washington’s counter-offer. There are some positive signs, as senior Ukrainian and Russian officials are said to be in talks about once again implementing the Minsk-2 peace accords, with France and Germany involved in this process as a possible way to de-escalate the situation. Nevertheless, given that Russian officials have previously warned of unspecified “military-technical” measures in the event that the US refused to heed its core demands, what follows could prove critical for European security for years to come.