In Geopolitics This Week
Israel and Hamas Reach Phased Peace Deal, US Creates Three-Tier System for Global AI Chip Access, Armenia Shifts West While Managing Russian Economic Ties, and other stories.
Israel and Hamas Reach Phased Peace Deal
Israel and Hamas have agreed to end the 15-month Gaza war through a phased deal starting January 19. Qatar and Egypt secured three implementation stages: a six-week ceasefire with hostage exchanges and Israeli military withdrawal, restoration of civilian movement across Gaza, and complete Israeli redeployment under UN supervision. The agreement establishes Egyptian-Israeli coordination as the primary mechanism for territorial control, marking a shift in Gaza's security architecture.
Israeli forces will withdraw to a 700-metre perimeter along Gaza's borders, while maintaining five strategic positions at key transit points. Egypt assumes expanded authority over southern operations through a joint command structure with Israel at the Rafah crossing, replacing previous UN-supervised arrangements. For the first time since 1967, Egyptian forces gain direct control of southern access points while international contractors manage internal checkpoints across Gaza. This security arrangement creates a new power-sharing model between Israel and Egypt, with implications for future regional security cooperation.
The implementation mechanism establishes bilateral coordination structures. A joint operations room coordinates border crossings, commercial flows, and security responses — replacing UN monitoring with direct Egyptian-Israeli management. These arrangements prevent weapons transfers while facilitating controlled civilian movement under a framework that positions regional powers as primary authorities over Gaza's access points. The shift from international to regional oversight reflects a broader trend toward direct security cooperation between Israel and Arab states, bypassing traditional international intermediaries.
Regional actors are already responding to the new Gaza security arrangements. Hezbollah approaches the January 26 Lebanon ceasefire deadline, calculating pressure points against Israel while managing escalation risks. Houthi forces have demonstrated expanded strategic reach, pivoting from Red Sea shipping disruption to direct strikes on Israel. Saudi Arabia sees potential for broader regional normalization but links progress to Palestinian governance resolution. Iran's proxies manoeuvre for influence as the new security framework alters traditional power projection channels across the Levant.
US Creates Three-Tier System for Global AI Chip Access
The United States has imposed a three-tier control system over advanced AI semiconductors, restructuring global access to critical computing capabilities. The policy creates distinct market categories: unrestricted access for Five Eyes and NATO allies, controlled deployment for strategic partners like India and Saudi Arabia, and comprehensive restrictions for competitors, particularly China. This framework extends beyond traditional export controls to establish new patterns of technological dependency, with US-controlled cloud services becoming the primary channel for global AI computing access.
The restrictions create a sophisticated control mechanism over advanced computing power. US companies must concentrate computing resources domestically while following strict limits on foreign deployment. The policy specifically targets high-performance chips essential for advanced AI development, establishing US oversight of critical technologies through both direct sales restrictions and cloud service controls. A Validated End User program allows trusted partners to exceed standard limits, but requires adherence to comprehensive US security protocols and continuous monitoring.
The controls reshape global technology deployment patterns and create powerful incentives for strategic adjustment across major powers. Major cloud providers gain privileged status as primary channels for AI computing access, provided they implement US security requirements. Strategic partners of the US face immediate constraints in domestic AI development, forcing reliance on US-controlled cloud services or investment in alternative technologies. European allies must restructure existing technology partnerships around US compliance frameworks, while China confronts direct barriers to accessing advanced AI infrastructure through any channel.
Armenia Shifts West While Managing Russian Economic Ties
Armenia has initiated a strategic pivot away from Russia, signing a US strategic partnership agreement on January 14 and authorizing EU membership qualification efforts through its Integration Act on January 9. The move is a significant departure from Armenia's traditional alignment with Moscow.
Russian economic architecture still underpins Armenia's essential systems. Gazprom controls critical energy infrastructure, while Russian remittances from Armenian workers abroad provide the majority of foreign income. Moscow maintains preferential pricing on vital resources like wheat and natural gas, while Armenia's sole nuclear plant depends on Russian technology and fuel. These deep economic linkages extend beyond trade relations to encompass critical infrastructure, energy security, and labour market dependencies.
The new Western frameworks target specific strategic gaps. US partnership provisions focus on nuclear security, border surveillance, and counterterrorism capabilities — directly addressing areas where support had once been provided by Russian via the CSTO. EU integration requires market reforms and resolution of Azerbaijani transit demands. While the Western arrangements don't fully replace Russian security guarantees, they establish new channels for military cooperation, intelligence sharing, and economic diversification that reduce Armenia's vulnerability to Russian pressure.
Monday, January 13th
Syria's New Leaders Push for Sanctions Relief — Al Jazeera
Ukrainian Drones Target Key Russian Gas Pipeline — Reuters
Pakistani Taliban Threatens Military-Linked Businesses — Stratfor
Taliban Expands Mining Operations — The Diplomat
Singapore-Malaysia Launch Special Economic Zone — Eurasia Review
Azerbaijan Demands Armenian Corridor — Eurasianet
Tuesday, January 14th
NATO Deploys Maritime Forces to Protect Baltic Infrastructure — Financial Times
Japan Sanctions Kazakh Company for Russian Military Supply Chain — Eurasianet
US Restricts Global AI Chip Exports Through Three-Tier System — Responsible Statecraft
China's Exports to Global South Surpass Developed Markets — Asia Times
Russia's Mediterranean Naval Access Under Threat — RUSI
Japan and Indonesia Expand Maritime Security Partnership — Kyodo News
Wednesday, January 15th
UAE Expands African Presence Through Kenya Trade Deal — Business Insider
UK Signs £12.3 Billion Iraqi Infrastructure Package — Al-Monitor
Israel and Hamas Reach Phased Deal After Strategic Exhaustion — Reuters
Venezuela Restricts European Diplomatic Presence — MercoPress
India Shifts Military Resources After China Border Agreement — War on the Rocks
Russia's Rosatom Wins Vietnam Nuclear Contract — The Diplomat
Thursday, January 16th
Rwanda Expands Military Footprint Across Africa — Stratfor
India Demonstrates Space-Docking Capabilities — Al Jazeera
UAE's Masdar Commits £15bn to Philippines Renewable Expansion — Oil Price
Russia’s Central Asian Influence Remains Resilient — Geopolitical Monitor
Armenia Pivots West While Maintaining Russian Economic Ties — Eurasianet
Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Faces Governance Deadlock — Responsible Statecraft
Friday, January 17th
Russia and Iran Sign 20-Year Strategic Partnership Treaty — AP News
Colombia Halts ELN Peace Talks — Al Jazeera
Poland Builds New Regional Security Framework as V4 Dissolves — Jamestown
Argentina Merges Diplomatic Missions in Uruguay — MercoPress
Iraq Struggles with 95% Oil-Based Budget — Eurasia Review
EU-Mexico Trade Deal Opens 450M Consumer Market — Reuters
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