In Geopolitics This Week
Israel and Lebanon Agree Maritime Border Deal, The US is Preparing a Response to OPEC+ Production Cuts, Kazakhstan Invests in Turkish Drone Fleet, and other stories.
Israel and Lebanon Agree Maritime Border Deal
Israel's Prime Minister Yair Lapid and Lebanon's President Michel Aoun have announced agreement in a US-mediated maritime deal between Lebanon and Israel. Under the deal, the Karish natural gas field will go to Israel and the Qana natural gas field to Lebanon, with as of yet unpublished minor modifications to the previous maritime border.
While the final US text of the agreement has not yet been made public, reports suggest all of the Karish field would fall under Israeli control, while Qana would be divided between the two countries with exploitation in this field under Lebanon’s control. Energy giant Total would be licensed to search for gas in the Qana field, and Israel would receive a share of future revenues.
The deal is a breakthrough for Lebanese-Israeli relations, and will ease tensions over natural gas fields located near the Levantine coast. For Lebanon, the deal promises lucrative energy profits if political dysfunction at home can be overcome, though it is likely to be years before the Qana field is up and running. Israel, on the other hand, is well positioned to invest in the necessary infrastructure needed to extract and transfer natural gas in the near-term.
Hezbollah has reportedly accepted the deal, but Israel's and Lebanon's governments must still formally ratify the agreement. Since Israel and Lebanon remain in a state of war, the issue of disputed territories that both sides claim is still a point of contention. Nevertheless, the discovery of gas fields in their disputed waters have increased Israel’s and Lebanon's interest in establishing a final maritime border so energy exploration could take place.
The US is Preparing a Response to OPEC+ Production Cuts
The decision by the OPEC+ group of nations last week to cut oil production by two million barrels per day has been received with displeasure in Washington. Officials in the United States have expressed concerns that Moscow and Riyadh are working together against US interests. Since the decision was announced, US officials have began floating a number of policy options to respond to the production cut.
In response, the Biden administration has directed the Department of Energy to release another 10 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This has raised the total amount of oil released from the SPR to 250 million barrels of oil, reducing the total volume of oil still in the SPR to 417 million barrels of oil.
Beyond these efforts to keep oil prices low before the mid-term elections, the Biden administration has limited other options. The White House may choose to push through the NOPEC Bill in order to sue OPEC+ for what Washington calls “cartel-like” manipulation of oil prices. The US government could also demand that domestic shale oil producers raise their production levels to offset the OPEC+ production cut.
The timing of the OPEC+ move places the Biden administration in a difficult situation, with each potential policy response having potentially dire political consequences. The Biden administration and officials in Congress have already moved to signal a swift change in the US-Saudi relationship, with Senator Bob Menendez, chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, demanding a freeze on all cooperation with Saudi Arabia “beyond what is absolutely necessary.”
Kazakhstan Invests in Turkish Drone Fleet
In recent years, Kazakhstan has sought to balance against Russia by boosting military capabilities and engaging with a number of regional powers. As a result of these efforts, Astana will soon operate an impressive fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) sourced from China, Israel and Turkey. In addition, the country also intends to involve its own defence industry in facilitating the design and production of UAVs.
Kazakhstan is seeking to boost military capabilities and deepen its ties with partners such as China and Turkey to offset its reliance on Russia. This forms a part of the country’s multi-vector foreign policy, with the goal being the benefits from appeasing different world powers. For instance, in a recent meeting of the Turkey-Kazakhstan High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council, Ankara and Astana signed cooperation documents on foreign policy and investment, trade and economics, transport and logistics, military industry, energy, and agriculture.
Like most militaries around the world, Kazakh defence leaders are striving to acquire the most cost-effective unmanned platforms for both surveillance and attack missions. Kazakhstan’s decision to publicly showcase the drones comes at a time of high tensions with neighbouring Tajikistan, and may be intended as a show of strength to a regional rival. Kazakhstan’s UAV purchases come after several Central Asian states have begun investing in various drone technologies in recent years, with Kyrgyzstan purchasing Bayraktar TB2s last year, and Tajikistan rumoured to have acquired the same system earlier this year.