In Geopolitics This Week
China Leverages Mineral Exports as US Scrambles for Rare Earths, US Restructures Foreign Aid, BRICS Expansion Accelerates Trade Route Shifts, and other stories.
China Leverages Mineral Exports as US Scrambles for Rare Earths
China has imposed new export controls on five critical minerals — tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium. The measures are a part of Beijing's broader response to Washington's tariffs affecting $450 billion of Chinese goods. China's control over critical mineral supply chains enables precise targeting of US industries. Beijing can restrict minerals crucial for semiconductors, aerospace components, and battery manufacturing, while maintaining exports to other markets through its network of processing facilities.
The United States is shifting mineral access to the centre of military aid negotiations, requiring Ukrainian rare earth commitments in exchange for continued military support. The territories Russia currently occupies contain Ukraine's largest deposits — titanium reserves in Zaporizhzhia, lithium mines near Mariupol, and rare earth concentrations in Donetsk, all deemed essential for US defence manufacturing. Washington has specifically cited “security of rare earth” as a condition for military aid, while Ukrainian leadership confirmed alignment with these terms.
China’s rare earth supply chain has been disrupted by the Kachin Independence Army's capture of Myanmar's Panwa and Chipwe mining hubs last year. These mines supplied Chinese processing facilities with concentrated rare earth oxides used in electronics and defence systems. The KIA's seizure disrupts China's rare earth network, stretching from Myanmar's northern mines through processing facilities in Yunnan and Guangdong provinces. Similar facilities in Malaysia and Vietnam lack capacity to offset this supply chain disruption, forcing Chinese processors to seek new sources or reduce output.
US Restructures Foreign Aid
The United States is restructuring USAID, bringing its $72 billion assistance portfolio under State Department control. Current funding patterns map clear strategic priorities: Ukraine receives direct budgetary support preventing state collapse, Israel reinforces military capabilities in the Middle East, and Ethiopia anchors US economic presence along the Red Sea corridor where China has invested heavily in ports and infrastructure. Together with Jordan and Egypt's billion-dollar military-economic packages, these top recipients demonstrate how US aid concentrates in regions where financial tools serve as direct instruments of power projection.
USAID's funding architecture has evolved specific mechanisms for each strategic theatre: rapid fiscal transfers maintain Ukraine's state functions and defence operations, long-term military assistance preserves Israel and Egypt's regional security roles, and targeted economic packages from Ethiopia to Jordan secure US influence over maritime choke points carrying 30% of global container traffic. These approaches address concrete requirements — stabilizing frontline states, maintaining regional military partners, and countering rival economic influence in strategic geographic locations.
The move ends a structure established during the Cold War, when USAID operated independently to distinguish American development aid from Soviet influence operations. Kennedy created the agency in 1961 specifically to counter Moscow's ability to use aid as leverage, establishing development as a separate pillar of US influence from State Department diplomacy. This reorganization dissolves that firewall, indicating Washington now sees more value in directly linking aid to diplomatic objectives than in maintaining the appearance of independent development assistance.
BRICS Expansion Accelerates Trade Route Shifts
BRICS has added three new members under Brazil's chairmanship: Indonesia's $1.3 trillion economy and Malacca Strait shipping lanes, Nigeria's position as Africa's largest economy and oil producer, and Azerbaijan's Caspian energy resources and transport corridors. The expansion brings BRICS to 60% of global population. Saudi Arabia declined to join at this stage — Riyadh's Economy Minister Faisal Al-Ibrahim cited ongoing assessment, while the kingdom focuses on the India-Middle-East-Europe Corridor project developed with the US and Israel.
New member Azerbaijan is already leveraging its BRICS position by moving forward with the construction of the Aras Corridor through Iran, with new rail lines and customs facilities connecting its mainland to Nakhchivan. The 43-kilometre route bypasses Armenia's Syunik region while positioning Iran as a transit hub for Russian cargo flows to Persian Gulf ports. Similarly, BRICS aspirant Colombia has established direct Shanghai-Buenaventura maritime trade through Peru's Chancay port, cutting Panama Canal transit times. Bogota has paired this with 25% reciprocal tariffs on US imports while eliminating duties on Chinese electric vehicles, solar panels, and telecommunications equipment.
Commercial activity follows these new institutional and infrastructure alignments. Chinese firms are building operations along these corridors — Huawei establishing a regional technology hub in Bogota, BYD constructing electric vehicle facilities, and Shein opening distribution centres for Pacific markets. Azerbaijan's SOCAR is developing energy terminals and storage along the Aras route as Iran begins handling increased cargo between Russia and Gulf ports. The UAE's Jebel Ali and Fujairah ports are expanding capacity for India-Europe trade flows through IMEC, while Armenia's existing north-south rail infrastructure now sits largely unused.
Monday, February 3rd
Ukraine's Grid Now 70% Dependent on Three Nuclear Plants — War on the Rocks
US Reorganizes Foreign Aid Architecture — FT
SAF Breaks RSF Control of Khartoum — Al-Monitor
Mexico and Canada Acquiesce to US Demands — Responsible Statecraft
India Rising in Asian Military Power — Eurasia Review
OPEC+ Maintains Production Cuts — Oil Price
Tuesday, February 4th
Pakistan Builds Long-Range Missiles with Chinese Technology — IISS
US Targets Iranian Oil Trade with China — Middle East Eye
China Restricts Critical Minerals in US Trade Fight — El País
US Demands Rare Earth Access for Ukraine Military Aid — ZeroHedge
Combat Drone Expertise Spreads Beyond Ukraine War — War on the Rocks
M23 Rebels Declare Ceasefire After Capturing Goma — Al Jazeera
Wednesday, February 5th
France Secures 30-Year Uranium Supply from Mongolia — The Diplomat
Iran and Azerbaijan Progress on New Trade Corridor — Geopolitical Monitor
BRICS Adds Indonesia, Nigeria, Azerbaijan — Eurasia Review
US Proposes Gaza Administration and Palestinian Resettlement — FT
Saudi Arabia Delays BRICS Entry — Asia Times
US Freezes Haiti Security Mission Funding — AP News
Thursday, February 6th
M23 Rebels Seize Second Congo Mining Hub — Reuters
Guatemala Agrees to Expanded US Deportation Network — Al Jazeera
Gulf States Buy Up Caucasus Infrastructure — Jamestown
Mapuche Rebels Burn Patagonian Territory — MercoPress
China Replaces India in Bangladesh — The Diplomat
Kachin Rebels Capture Myanmar Rare Earth Mines — MetalMiner
Friday, February 7th
Colombia Opens China Trade Route — ColombiaOne
Kyrgyzstan Restricts Russian Military Trade Network — Eurasianet
China Tests Anti-Drone Tank Defence System — TWZ
Ukraine Gas Halt Pushes Transnistria to EU — German-Foreign-Policy
US Navy Loses Pacific Shipbuilding Race to China — War on the Rocks
Water Scarcity Disrupts Global Power Balance — Stratfor
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